Mental Mistakes Doom The Nuggets | NBA Playbook

Mental Mistakes Doom The Nuggets

In my opinion, the head coaching position is a little undervalued by casual NBA fans.  I think the reason for this is because whenever you turn on the game you see guys like Kobe, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James going 1 on 1, and some people assume (incorrectly) that the players are doing whatever they want out there.

Last night’s Nuggets-Rockets game showed you how important a quality head coach is.  The Nuggets were without George Karl (who was receiving cancer treatment), and without him they made a ton of uncharacteristic mistakes you don’t see the Nuggets make.  These mistakes ended up costing the Nuggets the game.

Mistake 1:  Letting Trevor Ariza Get His Shot Off

Here, the Nuggets are up by 5 points with a little over 1 minute to go.  If the Nuggets are able to get a stop here, they would pretty much have the win locked up (after a lot of foul shots).  When Trevor Ariza makes his catch, you just get a feeling he wants to shoot a three (Ariza shoots 5.9 threes a game).  Carmelo Anthony recognizes it, and he crowds Ariza.

Seeing the three is not open, Ariza tries to drive by Anthony.  Carmelo plays very good defense and gets his hand on the basketball.

However, as Ariza regains possession, Carmelo seems to let up.  He doesn’t close that gap and gives Trevor Ariza too much space.

As Ariza dribbles it up to the three point line, Carmelo Anthony still doesn’t close the gap, giving Trevor Ariza a wide open three point look and he knocks it down.  Here it is in real time (notice the let-up Carmelo has as the ball gets knocked away).

Mistake 2:  Poor Transition Defense

The next possession following Ariza’s three, the Nuggets get a real good look for Arron Afflalo coming off of a Carmelo drive and kick.  He can’t knock it down though, and Luis Scola grabs the rebound.  He kicks it ahead and then sprints ahead, forcing the Nuggets to play transition defense:

It is a four on three fast break for the Rockets, and while two defenders are in proper position (Afflalo on the ball and Billups in help), Carmelo Anthony is jogging back on defense, not even looking for the basketball.  This is what allows Scola to cut to the middle of the court, and get the and one (Chauncey Billups’ 5th foul).  You really need to see it in real time to see how poor Carmelo looks on this:

While Melo’s error is probably the biggest one on this play, it isn’t the only one.  Another key error is made by both Nene and J.R. Smith.  Both guys pressure the basketball, which is 94 feet from the hoop they are defending.  The ball gets passed ahead, and this is what starts the fast break that Carmelo doesn’t defend properly.

Mistake 3:  Fouling Too Early

Even with all of these mistakes, the Nuggets are still only down 1 point with 41 seconds left.  They do an interesting thing here, they draw up a play not for Billups or Carmelo, but for Nene.  It is actually a pretty nice play-call, and it works because the Nuggets were trying to get a two for one.  Nene can’t get the shot to fall, but with a 9 second differential between the game clock and the shot clock, the Nuggets had enough time to get a stop and have a chance at the win.  That’s not what happens though:

The crazy thing is that J.R. Smith tries to foul (and misses) before Billups actually gets it done.  Here it is in real time:

If the Nuggets are leaving the huddle going with the knowledge that they are going for a two for one (which is pretty much given since that is what the play was designed for), you need to know that you aren’t fouling if you don’t score.  The head coach is the guy who lets the players know the situation as they leave the huddle, and George Karl wasn’t there to do that last night.  Even more important, this foul was Chauncey Billups’ 6th and final foul.

Culmination Of Mistakes

With Chauncey Billups out, the Nuggets have to turn to Anthony Carter to try and get the final game-winning stop.  It didn’t work out too well:

Now, if Billups is on the court do the Nuggets win for sure?  No, but there is no question that the Nuggets would rather have him on the court instead of Anthony Carter.  The worst part of it is that Billups’ final two fouls (the one on Scola, and the one to stop the clock when they didn’t need to) could have been avoided had the Nuggets played smarter.  With Billups on the court, who knows, maybe the Nuggets win.
16
Mar 2010
POSTED BY admin
POSTED IN 4th Quarters Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets Mental Mistakes Xs & Os
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  • http://johnharrisbasketball.com John

    Usual 5-out setup for the Brooks isolation at the end. Great screen/exchanges off the ball on the far side to keep their defenders relatively honest/pre-occupied and out of the lane.

  • http://givemetherock.com Nels

    I feel like I have to comment on every post to let you know how I much I love your blog. Keep it up!

  • http://khandorssportsblog.com/wordpress khandor

    1. Melo loses his concentration during his defensive possession vs Ariza to begin this unfortunate series of events for the Nuggets [who, incidently, were my NBA GOTD Selection, last night, at -2.5/-110].

    2. Then, on his right block post-up, Melo makes a poor/low kick-out pass to Afflalo.

    3. Afflalo drops the pass, and, then … after picking it up off the floor … shoots a rushed 3, instead of shot faking and driving into to the lane with 7 full secs left on the shot clock. If Arron would have had the presence of mind to do this, instead of simply jacking a now only half-open 3, he would have drawn help from Ariza and created a wide open 3 for “Mr. Big Shot” at the Top Of The Key.

    4. Nene did a good job of jamming the rebounder after the missed 3 by Afflalo.

    5. JR Smith lost his concentration, however, and instead of picking up Nene’s check in defensive transition wasted his time by trying to create a steal in the Rockets’ back-court.

    6. Melo was in the correct position in defensive transition and was NOT responsible for providing help on Scola’s layup down the middle of the court.

    7. Billups was NOT in the correct help position in defensive transition, relative to his individual check located in the far corner of the court and was the Nugget player responsible for stopping Scola’s layup attempt … after JR Smith bailed out on his teammates earlier in the defensive transition sequence.

    8. After Nene missed his bunny layup attempt and Afflalo missed his follow-up tip-in attempt … IMO, the Nuggets were NOT under instructions to foul the Rockets, in order to stop the clock, as there were more 30 secs left on the game clock and they were only down by 1 point, 121-122.

    9. Therefore, JR Smith was not supposed to Aaron Brooks when he collects the outlet pass from Scola on the Rocket’s baseline.

    10. Neither was Chauncey Billups supposed to foul Aaron Brooks in defensive transition.

    11. What the Nuggets were supposed to do in defensive transition, if they failed to score on that offensive trip and there was more than 27 secs left on the game clock was defend for the Rockets’ entire offensive possession AND then after getting a stop themselves, attempt to either tie or win the game outright on their subsequent offensive possession [i.e. either down by 1, 2 or 3 points].

    12. Either: a. Billups made a crucial mistake by committing that foul; or, b. Adrian Dantley failed to do a good job communicating his intended strategy to his players, specific to the time and score involved in this situation.

    13. Given who the Nuggets and Rockets had on the floor for Brooks’ game-winning pull-up J, Denver should have had Afflalo [i.e their best on-ball defender] checking him, and shifted Carter to any one of Martin, Ariza or Battier [regardless of the height disadvantage involved].

    Up by 11 points with 10 minutes left to play in regulation, the Denver simply gave this game away without George Karl on their bench directing the efforts of their team.

    BTW, I agree with you 100% on the fact that MOST people who watch the NBA don’t really have a clue about just how important the work of a good head coach actually is when it comes to winning and losing games, on a nightly basis, in this league.

  • Panzeh

    I’m not so sure the first play was a mistake against Ariza. Trevor Ariza has had a really poor season offensively, and his shooting numbers suggest that him dribbling into 3 is a good shot for the defense.

    The rest of the article is great, though.

  • Giuliano

    Great stuff, best in the web. Please keep posting.

  • D.

    If you should ever decide to stop writing this blog I’m going to sue you.

    just kidding, but this blog is a must-read for every serious NBA fan. Great job.

  • http://48minutesofhell Greyberger

    Ariza’s off-the-dribble three with time winding down after being denied the dribble penetration is not a high-percentage shot by any means, but anybody who’s watched him this year knows that’s exactly his MO now.

    The Ron Artest comparison that Henry Abbott makes in recapping this possession is pretty apt. These guys are so bad with the ball in their hands right now that any casual fan can tell they need fewer touches, but instead of deferring they take it upon themselves to ‘lead’ by tossing up long jumpers off the dribble like Kobe or Melo do.

    However this doesn’t mean the right way to play them is to simply give them enough space to hang themselves. You should still try to deny them the option they prefer, even

  • http://48minutesofhell Greyberger

    …if it means getting the ball out of their hands. Both these players have such bad decision making and such ungrounded confidence in their shot that they may take the contested crowded jumper or try the driving lane that isn’t there. Playing aggressive defense on Ariza just tempts him into an aggressive response.