I was actually going to do a post on this, but I was beaten to the punch by Kevin Arnovitz. In a post for the Lakers blog Land O’Lakers, Arnovitz looks at what caused the Lakers’ fourth quarter meltdown. In my opinion, Kevin Arnovitz is the best on the net when it comes to breaking down Xs and Os, so you should definitely head over there and watch (even if you aren’t a Spurs or Lakers fan). I guarantee you will learn something new.
Yesterday against the Toronto Raptors, the Golden State Warriors decided to foul when they were up three points and turn the game into a foul shooting contest. This doesn’t really happen in the NBA, but many experts/coaches feel like this is the correct decision. My opinion on it is that it all depends on your team and who you are playing. This is because when you are fouling, you extend the game, and that means more foul shots for your own team. In this case, the Warriors are actually one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league (4th at 78%). It also depends on how efficient the opposition is from the three point line, and in this case, Toronto is 4th in the league in three point shooting.
Add those two factors (that the Warriors are good at foul shooting and that the Raptors are good at 3 point shooting), and I think that the Warriors made the correct decision in fouling late. I also think they did a good job of executing. As we saw in the college ranks during the Xavier-Kansas State game, when you are fouling intentionally there is a chance that you foul when the opposing team takes a three, giving them three foul shots. Let’s look at the the three fouls the Warriors take:
On this first play, the Raptors have no idea that the Warriors are going to foul. Because of that, I would have liked to seen the Warriors wait a little bit before taking the first foul. However, you don’t want to take any chances, and with Jarrett Jack moving away from the basket, there are worst times to take the foul.
In the fourth quarter of the Cavs game against the Celtics, LeBron James was a runaway freight train. He scored 20 points in said quarter, and he did it by attacking the basket. When James decided to put his head down and get to the rim, he either got himself an easy basket or a foul call. Conversely, nothing was dropping from the three point line as he was 0-7 from deep with his team down 2 with just about 10 seconds left. That is what makes his decision for a pull up three on a 2 on 2 situation so confusing.
We have all seen LeBron’s heat check threes before, you know, the ones that as he pulls up everyone says “No! God no!” but then it goes in to a resounding “Yes!” but those usually come after a couple makes. LeBron was so successful attacking the rim in the fourth quarter, it was just plain silly:
This was 1 of 5 plays that LeBron had where he attacked and ended up with a dunk or a lay-up. Now, let’s look at that final play:
