Does Fouling Up Three Work?
Yesterday against the Toronto Raptors, the Golden State Warriors decided to foul when they were up three points and turn the game into a foul shooting contest. This doesn’t really happen in the NBA, but many experts/coaches feel like this is the correct decision. My opinion on it is that it all depends on your team and who you are playing. This is because when you are fouling, you extend the game, and that means more foul shots for your own team. In this case, the Warriors are actually one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league (4th at 78%). It also depends on how efficient the opposition is from the three point line, and in this case, Toronto is 4th in the league in three point shooting.
Add those two factors (that the Warriors are good at foul shooting and that the Raptors are good at 3 point shooting), and I think that the Warriors made the correct decision in fouling late. I also think they did a good job of executing. As we saw in the college ranks during the Xavier-Kansas State game, when you are fouling intentionally there is a chance that you foul when the opposing team takes a three, giving them three foul shots. Let’s look at the the three fouls the Warriors take:
On this first play, the Raptors have no idea that the Warriors are going to foul. Because of that, I would have liked to seen the Warriors wait a little bit before taking the first foul. However, you don’t want to take any chances, and with Jarrett Jack moving away from the basket, there are worst times to take the foul.
This next play is interesting. The Raptors now know that the Warriors want to foul, and they try to counter what the Warriors are doing. They quickly inbounds the ball to Bargnani who quickly throws it in to Turkoglu. If you watch closely, Turkoglu has a chance to fire up a quick three, he hesitates slightly, and the Warriors get the foul.
On this final one, the Warriors foul as soon as the catch is made. This was smart because Bosh quickly threw up a shot, trying to get himself three foul shots. What I would almost like to see here is teams fake a foul, trying to bait a player into an awful shot. That could get dangerous though.
In the end, we shouldn’t let the Raptors’ steal and near miss change our minds. Fouling up three was appropriate in this situation because the Raptors are a good 3 point shooting team and you don’t want to give them a good look. On their end, the Warriors are a good free throw shooting team so they can live with having the game be extended.
In my opinion, there shouldn’t be a blanket rule that all coaches follow when it comes to fouling up three. It all depends on the situation. Let’s say you are the Cavs or the Pistons (the two worst foul shooting teams), I wouldn’t recommend they foul up three, because as the game continues to be extended, there is a better chance that the team misses a foul shot and end up with a 2 point game instead of a 3 point game. In addition, if you are playing a team like the Nets (one of the worst three point shooting teams and a team that can’t really run a play late), you don’t want to foul up 2, because it is more than likely they won’t get a good game tying shot attempt up.