For these playoff previews we are going to take a look at each team individually, and then we are going to look at the match-up.

San Antonio Spurs

Strengths

What the Spurs do well.

• Execution
• Movement without the ball
• Tough defense

Weaknesses

Some problems the Spurs struggle with

• Aging stars
• Tony Parker’s rust

Tendencies

Some things you are going to notice when watching the Spurs play.

• The Spurs aren’t a team that will run you to death, as they like to work in the half court.  That doesn’t mean they can’t score.  The Spurs are really good at executing their stuff in the half court.

Key Set

• Middle cut off double team

Teams are going to double Tim Duncan in the post.  That is the only way you are going to be able to stop him most nights.  The Spurs are a smart team though, and they expect the double teams.  So how to they counter?  They send a cutter (usually the cutter is the man who the double-team guy is defending) through the middle of the lane.  Tim Duncan is a good enough decision maker where you can trust him to make that pass and not force it in there.

Dallas Mavericks

Strengths

What the Mavericks do well

• Score In Bunches
• Very good defensively
• Good in transition
• Bench Production

Weaknesses

Some problems the Mavericks struggle with

• They tend to get into scoring droughts
• PF depth

Tendencies

Some things you are going to notice when watching the Mavericks play.

• The Mavs are really good in transition, but they don’t run all the time (like the Suns do).  They are very selective when they run, only going when they know they have the advantage.

Key Set

• Dirk ISO On Elbow

In one of the earlier matchups, I talk about how the baseline is tough to double team.  The next toughest area to double team?  The elbow.  It is right in the middle of the court, so if you send a double, Dirk will be able to find an open man.  What makes this so hard to defend is if you put a big guy on him, he will go right to the basket.  If you put a smaller guy on him, he will just shoot right over him.

Key Matchup

Brendan Haywood vs. Tim Duncan

I showed what the Spurs can do when you double Tim Duncan, so if the Mavericks would be able to single cover him, that could very well be a difference maker in this series.  It all comes down to Brendan Haywood.  If he is able to stop Duncan on his own, the rest of his teammates can stay home on their men, and that will make it harder for the Spurs to score.

My Prediction

Mavs in 7

I hate picking against the Spurs, I really do.  I just think the Mavericks are good enough on defense (especially with Haywood) that they can keep the Spurs from exploding on them.  On the other end, I don’t really see anyone able to stop Dirk on the elbow.  Expect big things from him this series.