Throughout of the offseason, I will take a look at teams that most people will think are contenders and look at an area where they struggle.  I will then offer up my opinion on how their weakness can be improved on so they can take the next step…today, we are going to look at the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Last year, the Thunder were the NBA’s surprise team.  Their front office did a fantastic job of gathering young talent, but they weren’t expected to seriously compete for a playoff spot.  The Thunder were able to sneak up on a lot of people.  This year is going to be different, because teams are going to taking the Thunder seriously from the start.

To get where they want to be, the Thunder are going to need to improve on the offensive end.  Using SynergySports you see that the Thunder’s weakest offensive option is the pick and roll.  According to Synergy, the Thunder only had .80 points per possession on possession considered “Pick and Roll Ball – Handler,” which was good for 22nd in the league.  As for possession considered “Pick and Roll – Roll Man,” the Thunder only scored .97 points per possession, ranking them 24th in the NBA.

Why Wasn’t It Successful?

Poor Shooting Ball Handler

Russell Westbrook is a fantastic point guard when he is getting to the rim, however he isn’t the best shooter.  From 10-15 feet Westbrook shot just 33.9%, and from 16-23 feet Westbrook shot 37%.  Those areas on the court are important during this discussion because that is where most point guards get their shots in the pick and roll, and Westbrook was the Thunder’s primary ball handler in the pick and roll (he had 513 of team’s 1049 PNR ball handler possessions).

During the season, teams got smart when defending Westbrook and the pick and roll:

Teams would just go under the screen when Westbrook was handling the ball, preventing the drive to the lane and basically begging him to shoot.  More often than not Westbrook would comply, and miss.

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When the Bulls hired Boston Celtic assistant coach Tom Thibodeau, they knew that they are getting one of the best defensive minds in the NBA today.  In fact Thibodeau is the man credited for Boston’s top rated defense (according to Synergy, who used Points Per Possession to rank them).  However, just because Thibodeau is coming in doesn’t mean that the Bulls defense was terrible last year (they were in fact ranked 8th), and when you think of their roster, it makes sense.  You have a big physical and athletic point guard in Derrick Rose, long-athletic wings, and a mobile yet physical big man in Joakim Noah.  It’s scary to think about what Thibodeau can do with this roster, and that is without adding LeBron James.  What I wanted to do is take a look at some changes the Bulls defense might make with Thibodeau in charge.  Specifically the pick and roll.

Surprisingly enough, the Bulls were better/equal to the Celtics when defending the pick and roll (both in terms of defending the ball handler and defending the roll man), according to Synergy (Celtics’ stats in the white and Bulls’ stats in the gray):

Despite the Bulls holding their opponents to a lower points per possession number, the Boston Celtics were able to force more turnovers.  Turnovers are important because they allow the team forcing them opportunities to run and get baskets in transition.  With the way the Bulls’ roster is currently set up, the more they can get in transition, the better.  So what do the Celtics do differently to force all these turnovers?

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DeMarcus Cousins is being talked about as the best big man in the draft, and one of the reasons is that he has such a polished post game despite only being 19 years old.  Let’s take a look at his post game:

The Seal

The seal might be the most important part of a players post game in my opinion.  You make a good seal, you create a passing lane for your teammate and get the ball in a position to score.  A weak seal, and you don’t get the basketball, or you get it too far to execute your move.

DeMarcus Cousins really uses his body well when he seals off his defender in the post.  The wide base is what makes this a beautiful seal.  With a defender trying to half front him, Cousins gets really wide and puts the defender on his front leg.  If Cousins doesn’t have a wide base, the defender would be able to get his hand in the passing lane.  Instead, there seems to be a clear lane for the passer to get the ball to Cousins when he stretches his hand out.  Now, the pass doesn’t get to him, but that isn’t Cousins fault.

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John Wall is the consensus #1 pick in tomorrow’s draft, and most people think he will be a very good, if not great pro.  However, the opinions of the next-best two perimeter players are up in the air.  Many people are wondering who will be the better pro between Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson.  In my opinion, it all comes down to who will be the better shooter in the pros, and who can effectively take the step back to the NBA three point line, because all other things on the offensive end are relatively equal (Wesley Johnson is a bit more athletic/Evan Turner has a slightly better handle).

Shooting Form

Wesley Johnson

I absolutely love Wesley Johnson’s shooting form.  He is a jump shooter rather than a set shooter, and his fundamentals are really on point, elbows are bent the right way, guide hand is on the side of the ball and it isn’t used during the shot.  My favorite thing about his shot though is how high he keeps the basketball up on his release.  Wesley Johnson is 6′6″ so he is already just as tall as most threes and probably taller than most shooting guards trying to defend him on the outside.  With the way that Johnson keeps the ball up, there is going to be no way his shot gets altered/blocked when shooting from the outside.

Evan Turner

Evan Turner too is a jump shooter rather than a set shooter.  Turner also has solid form when looking at his elbow and guide hand (you can’t see it from here, so you are going to have to take my word for it).  However, what I don’t like in Turner’s form is what I love in Johnson’s, where the basketball is.  Wesley Johnson kept the basketball up ridiculously high, but Evan Turner looks like he is almost resting the ball on his shoulder.  In my opinion, he keeps the basketball too low, but that has never been a problem in college because as M. Haubs of The Painted Area mentioned, he has been going up against smaller defenders most of his college career.

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I don’t put too much Nets stuff on here mainly because they suck, but also because anything Xs and Os related I do about the Nets usually goes up on my Nets’ blog NetsAreScorching (shameless plug I know). I was hoping to get some sort of post up today, but with my schedule that isn’t going to happen.  So I thought the best thing to do was instead of just not having anything go up, I’d post some of the Nets’ related stuff I have done recently that you may not have seen if you don’t check out my Nets site (you probably should though):

Derrick Favors and How He Fits with the Nets:

Before the news that the Nets are leaning towards Wesley Johnson hit today, it seemed like the Nets were deciding between DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors.  I like Derrick Favors, because he fits better with the Nets:

If you were to think of one word that has been associated with Derrick Favors so far, that word would be “raw.”  That is all you hear from some scouts and draft experts.  While he might be raw when it comes to basketball skills (his shooting ability for example), there are two things that catch your eye when you watch Favors play.

The first is his work ethic on the basketball court.  Georgia Tech’s offense was very helter skelter during this past season, and that is putting it nicely.  There would be series of five to ten straight possessions where Derrick Favors wouldn’t even get a touch.  Despite all of that, every time down the court, Favors would get to his spot on the court and post up, just as hard and strong as the last time (even though he didn’t get the basketball).

The second thing you notice is Favors’ basketball IQ.  Despite being “raw,” Favors seems to know what he is doing with the basketball.  In the four or five games I was able to see, Derrick Favors never looked flustered.  He was comfortable with the basketball and always knew where he wanted to go with it.  He also does the little things.  We already talked about Favors putting his hands up when retreating to his man, but he also runs the floor very well, knows how to properly space out the court, and instinctively chins the basketball when grabbing a rebound, getting those elbows out and preventing defenders from reaching in and stealing it.

What The Nets Defense Will Look Like:  Against The Pick & Roll

Avery Johnson, the new Nets coach, mentioned that he is going to bring the same defensive philosophy he used in Dallas to New Jersey.  I took a look at what that might look like:

The Pick And Roll

From what I watched, it seemed that the Mavs had two ways to defend the screen and roll.  They play it one way when the ball handler is a shooting threat and another way when the ball handler isn’t a threat shooting the basketball.
Non-shooter

So Leandro Barbosa is handling the ball and gets a screen from Shawn Marion.  Here, the Mavs don’t consider Barbosa a shooting threat, so they are going to go under the screen.  It isn’t as simple as that though.  To make it easier to get under the screen and to the other side, preventing the penetration, Dirk needs to do some work here.  Dirk takes a few steps back, creating a lane for Devin Harris to bust through.

This frees up the lane for Devin, and he is able to cut off Barbosa’s penetration to the basket.

So check that stuff out, and look for a new post coming tomorrow.

When the Wizards won the first overall pick for the draft that is taking place this Thursday, they were overrun with John Wall mania (as they should be).  Now, John Wall is going to be the number one pick on Thursday, no doubt about it (they didn’t even work out Evan Turner) so the question becomes can the two play together?

I have only seen this really talked about at length in two places.  Kyle Weidie of TruthAboutIt.Net thinks they can play together.  Meanwhile, Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm thinks they can’t.  Me?  Well, I think they can play together and can be very successful doing it.

Before we get down to looking at some game tape, let’s look at some numbers.  82Games.com is a fantastic statistical site, and maybe my favorite aspect of the site is they give you the top 20 most used lineups for whatever team you want.  Looking at the lineups for the Wizards, one lineup in particular caught my eye.  That one was the most successful lineup (in terms of +/-) with Arenas in it:

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Before we get to the update, I just wanted to thank everyone who visits NBAPlaybook on a daily basis.  There have been more people coming to/talking about this site than I could ever imagine.  As you probably figured, I won’t be posting this weekend, but starting Monday I am going to do some draft related posts.  After the draft, we are going to move towards free agency.

Also, I am not really sure what my offseason schedule is going to look like (in terms of content), so if any of you out there have any ideas, do not hesitate to e-mail me (sebastian@nbaplaybook.com) or find me on Twitter (twitter.com/sebastianpruiti) and let me know on there.

Thanks again everyone!

Much like Lakers approached defending Rajon Rondo in game six, the Celtics took whoever was covering Ron Artest (in most cases it was Paul Pierce) and had them float on the defensive end of the court.  Unlike Rajon Rondo in game six, Ron Artest was able to make the Boston Celtics pay for this defensive strategy.  Eleven of Ron Artest’s twenty points came directly from Boston Celtic double teams.  Here is a look at these plays:

Play 1 (Two Points)

Above is a play from a sideline out of bounds set.  Immediately after Ron Artest inbounds the basketball and floats to the corner, Paul Pierce leaves him to float in the middle of the court.  Rajon Rondo, unsure of what to make of the situation decides to pick up Artest.  As the shot goes up, Artest uses his size advantage on Rondo to grab the rebound and put it right back in the basket.

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For almost the entire second half, the Lakers were chipping away at the Celtics’ lead.  Any time they would get close, the Celtics would create a little breathing room for themselves.  That is exactly what happened after the Lakers tied the game at 61.  The Celtics used three Ray Allen free throws to create a three point lead with about six and a half minutes left.  That is when Derek Fisher hit another huge three pointer in a NBA Finals game.

An interesting little wrinkle with this play is Lamar Odom bringing the ball up.  This is important for two reasons.  When Pau gets the ball in the post, it is hard for Big Baby (the man covering Odom) to double off of him.  It allows allows for Derek Fisher to float off of the basketball.

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Update:  Steve Weinman also took a look at this play over at his site, D-LeagueDigest.  Really awesome stuff worth taking a look at.

After Ray Allen hit a three pointer with about 52 seconds left, the Celtics found themselves down three points needing to get a stop to keep it a one possession game.  They got their stop as Kobe chucked up a deep three pointer, but they were unable to secure the defensive rebound, and that was your ballgame:

After Ray Allen hits his three, things get a little hectic as Pau Gasol gets set to inbound the basketball.  All ten players are in the Lakers’ backcourt, and this leads to some confusions about matchups.  Initially you have Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett just kind of hanging around not responsible for any Laker yet.

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