Yesterday, the Celtics made it official.  Kendrick Perkins won’t be playing in game seven tonight against the Lakers.  Kendrick Perkins is very important for the Celtics on the defensive end, and the numbers prove it.  According to raw +/-, the team is about 8 points better per 100 possessions with Perk on the floor versus with him on the bench, and it is performing better on both sides of the ball with Perk in the line-up (according to BasketballValue via CelticsHub).

On the defensive end, Kendrick Perkins is the anchor, allowing for the rest of the team to play against more favorable matchups.  Kevin Garnett on Andrew Bynum is rough, but Kevin Garnett on Pau Gasol (the matchup when Kendrick Perkins is in the game) is much more manageable.

Perkins is also one of the reasons why the Celtics are so good at defending the pick and roll:

Perkins hedges out real hard here, but the Celtics probably gameplan it this way to get it out of Kobe’s hands. The Lakers actually counter with a nice play, a quick pass to Gasol who then hits a rolling Bynum (trying to take advantage of Perkins’ hedge).  However, Perkins is able to get back, use his body, and force Bynum under the basket.  This is something that Kendrick Perkins does very well.

Here is another look at Perkins defending the pick and roll:

In addition to the pick and roll, Kendrick Perkins does a number of things here. He picks up Kobe as he drives through the lane, forcing him to kick it out. When he does, the shot goes up and Bynum gets the rebound. Perkins crowds him and forces him into a miss.

So with Perkins out, what does the Celtics’ defense look like?  Well, it means that Rasheed Wallace is going to most likely be starting, matched up against Andrew Bynum.  On the second play after Perkins gets injured you see the difference:

This time it’s Wallace defending the pick and roll, and he does a very poor job doing it.  Remember when Perkins cut off Kobe, making him pass it?  Well, Wallace can’t even contain Shannon Brown.  Wallace allows Brown to easily take the sideline and force rotation.  This means that nobody is able to help on Ron Artest’s penetration, and he knocks down the jumper.

Where the Celtics find themselves at a real disadvantage is when KG needs a rest now.  Instead of taking Garnett out and putting Perkins on Pau and sliding Wallace to Odom.  Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins have to share the court at the same time.  This means that Big Baby has to cover Lamar Odom and Rasheed Wallace has to cover Pau Gasol.  Mismatches galore, and here is the result:

As the ball goes up in the air, Wallace kind of just watches it.  This allows for Gasol to push him under the basket and get the rebound.  Gasol then backs Wallace down and hits the turnaround jumper.  Do you think that Perkins would allow either the rebound or the basket to be made?  I don’t.

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In the end, Perkins being out really hurts the Celtics defense and prevents them from being able to do what they really want to on the defensive end.  This is why I think the Lakers will take game seven tonight.