The Zone Will Work Against The Heat, But Only In Stretches
With three of the top ten players in the NBA, the Miami Heat might end up seeing a lot of zone defense this year. This seems logical because teams have trouble defending guys like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh when they were the lone All-Stars on their team, and now they are playing together. Few teams (if any) have three high quality individual defenders good enough to stop these guys one on one, so the zone is the next best option. So how will the 2-3 zone work against a team like the Heat next year?
Since the Heat haven’t played any games yet, I figured we could look at Team USA’s performance in the 2008 Olympics. Now I know that the two players that are going to be playing with James, Wade, and Bosh on the Heat won’t be Olympic quality, I know that the teams playing against them are better than Australia, Greece, and Argentina, and I know that the Heat’s coaching staff won’t have two Hall of Fame college coaches to help break down the zone for NBA guys. However, this is the closest we can get to seeing how a high-quality team operates against a zone defense, and what I took away from watching Team USA’s Olympic performance is that the zone will work against the Heat, but only in stretches.
Why It Will Work
When the zone worked against Team USA in the Olympics, it was because it got them to stand around and just pass the ball around the perimeter. Here, Team USA is just going through the motions on offense, making pass after pass after pass, just allowing for the Spanish zone to rotate and stay in front of their man. There are no penetrating or attacking dribbles, and that is exactly what Spain wants. They want to see the ball being passed around like this rather than having a LeBron James or a Dwyane Wade taking their man to the basket and either finishing or kicking it out to an open teammate.
Teams also tend to get three point happy when playing against zone defenses. If the ball gets swung around enough, the wings start to open up, and since the middle of zones tend to clog up the lane, the offense is almost baited into taking three pointers. Both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James can knock down a three or two, but I bet you that teams would rather have them on the outside shooting threes than driving.
Why It Won’t Work
Run the zone long enough, and teams start to figure it out. Players stop settling for the open jumpers and they start driving, coaches get a feel of a team’s zone and starts making adjustments, and players start to find holes in the zone:
The biggest hole being the middle of the zone, right at the top of the key. It’s a hole, because no one specific player is responsible for the top of the key and it ends up being left wide open. After getting stopped by the zone a few times, I can imagine the Heat putting Dwyane Wade or LeBron James right in the middle of the zone and getting him the ball there. Now, the defense is in a tough position. If they collapse on him, he hits an outside shooter. If just the big man comes up on him, he dumps it down to Chris Bosh. If everyone stays home, James takes one dribble and finishes at the rim.
The big problem with the zone defense in the NBA is that when you play zone, all five men are looking at the ball and reacting to its movements rather than focusing on one player and reacting to him. This allows for players to make a lot of cuts off the ball to get into open spots, and that is exactly what LeBron does here. Everyone is watching the dribble penetration, so LeBron is able to just sneak behind the Spanish back line and get to the middle of the lane uncontested. He makes the catch, and finishes easily at the rim.
Perhaps the biggest flaw with playing the zone defense in the NBA is that you putting yourself in a position to give up a ton of offensive rebounds when you play it. The reason behind it is that every defender is covering an area rather than a man, so when the shot goes up, defenders need to find somebody to box out. Most of the time, one or two offensive guys get to the glass untouched.
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Summing things up, the zone will work against a team like the Heat, but only in short stretches here and there. In the NBA, the zone works best when it is mixed in with a team’s man to man defense. This confuses the offense, and that confusion is what usually causes offenses to stand around and pass around the perimeter. Once players get comfortable though, they start looking for the holes in the zone that open up when you play it for an entire quarter.
That being said, I still think the Heat are going to see a lot of zone (maybe even a quarter’s worth of it), I just think that teams are going to run it in short stretches with a lot of man to man mixed in. That might be the best way to try and stop the Heat.
