Can He Bounce Back? Richard Jefferson | NBA Playbook

Can He Bounce Back? Richard Jefferson

Can He Bounce Back? Is a new series here at NBAPlaybook, and in it we will be looking at players that had a rough 2010 and determine whether or not it was a fluke or a start of a trend.

This past season, Richard Jefferson had one of the worst years of his career.  His 12.3 points per game was his lowest since his rookie year in 2001 (when he averaged just 24 minutes per game) and his PER of 13.18 was the lowest of his career.

Where He Struggled

Three Point Shooting

Richard Jefferson’s shooting percentage actually increased from 2008-2009 (43.9%) to last season (46.7%), but his shooting accuracy dropped from a few key locations, and his True Shooting percentage reflects that.  This past season, Jefferson’s True Shooting percentage was 55.1% (Compared to 55.4% two years ago).

The most important location where Jefferson saw his shooting percentage drop from was the three point line.  Jefferson’s 31.6% from behind the arc was the lowest of his career since the 2002-2003 season (and a steep decrease from his 39.7% clip last year).

Getting To The Rim

While Richard Jefferson’s three point shooting declined, his FG% on shots at the rim actually increased by a pretty wide margin.  Jefferson went from 57% two years ago to 67.7% this past year.  The problem though is that he wasn’t able to get to the rim like he used to.  Jefferson’s attempts at the rim dropped from 4.0 a game two years ago to 3.1 last year.  I know it doesn’t seem like much, but extrapolate that over the course of a full season, and that is a pretty big dip in attempts.

The reason Jefferson’s attempts are down is that he just doesn’t have the same athletic ability that he had in the beginning of his career:

In the above video, Jefferson grabs the rebound and brings the basketball up the court.  Jefferson basically has an one on one situation here.  In the prime of his career, Jefferson takes that ball to the rim strong, but instead he pulls it out.  This forces him to pick up his dribble, and leads to a turnover.

And here, Jefferson gets the ball on the wing, and bobbles it a bit.  He recovers and tries to take it to the rim, but just doesn’t have the ability to get on the hip of his defender and create separation.  He is forced to take a pull up jumper, but he doesn’t even have enough space for that and he throws out his arm to try and create the space.  He gets called for a foul and it gets chalked up as a turnover.

Problems Spotting Up

I don’t know if the Spurs brought Richard Jefferson in to be the team’s spot up shooter, but that is what ended up happening last season.  The problem is that Jefferson isn’t comfortable as a spot up shooter, it simply just isn’t his thing, and the numbers prove it.  Jefferson’s 0.91 on Spot Up Plays (as describe by Synergy) was 189th in that category individually.  The big problem was that Jefferson only shot 36.4% on these type of plays.  Despite how bad he was on Spot Ups, it still somehow accounted for 33.9% of his offense:

During the possession above, Jefferson is just standing in the corner for the entire possession. Then he gets the ball and takes a shot.  In my opinion, Jefferson is not the type of player who is comfortable standing around in one spot then taking a shot when the ball gets to him.

Will He Bounce Back?

In my opinion, Richard Jefferson has the potential to bounce back from one of the worst seasons of his career.  The first reason I think this is because the drop in Jefferson’s three point shooting percentage seems more of a fluke than anything to me.  His form is still the same that it has always been:

The shots just didn’t seem to fall last year.  Also, if his three point shooting returns to where it has been for most of his career, it helps another aspect of his game where he really struggled, spot up shooting.  Jefferson isn’t a spot up shooter, never was, but if he makes his threes (48% of his spot up shots were threes) you will see an increase in his spot up shooting.

Jefferson can also see his game improve over last year if the Spurs recognize what Jefferson does well and takes advantage of it.  Instead of having Jefferson spot up so much, the Spurs would be smart to start moving him around and letting him cut off the basketball.  Jefferson can’t get to the rim using his dribble anymore, but when he cuts off the basketball, he can still be as effective as ever.

In fact, last year Jefferson had 1.61 points per possession (6th in the NBA) while shooting 83.8% on plays labeled as cuts by Synergy Sports.  The reason Jefferson is so successful when cutting off the ball is that it allows him to get to the rim easily without being defended:

Jefferson no longer has the quickness to get by his man, but when he makes a catch near the rim and can take one step and jump, he still has enough athletic ability to finish with a dunk. The problem was that it was only 8% of his total offense (88 plays in total) last year.

–

Both Richard Jefferson and the Spurs need to focus on getting Jefferson moving off the ball more and spotting up less. If that happens, and Jefferson’s three point shooting returns to form, I fully expect Richard Jefferson to have a bounce back season.

22
Jul 2010
POSTED BY
POSTED IN Can He Bounce Back? San Antonio Spurs
DISCUSSION 13 Comments
TAGS

  • Rex

    Love the idea for the series. And interesting analysis of RJ.

    Looking at the two off-the-ball cut plays. It’s a microscopic sample, but just going off that, I wonder if it can really be done more often. The first play is made possible by the double team on Duncan (and Manu being a bad bad boy). The less teams double, the harder to get that play. The second is made possible by Artest playing D like a spaz, first going under the screen (!?), then taking away the middle, where there’s lots of bodies, instead of the wide-open wing (!?).

    My impression is that Parker and Ginobli get most of their points as slashers, so I wonder if it’s doable for the Spurs to accommodate another in Jefferson, who’s, what, their fourth option? Might be doable, but the other option is to up his lower-body training to get his legs back to where he can make his 3-pointers like before.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/07/22/nba-playbook-on-richard-jefferson/ Richard Jefferson :: Can he bounce back for San Antonio? | 48 Minutes of Hell

    [...] If Buford’s comments fill you with a little “huh?” and a lotta “say what?”, don’t fear, Sebastian Pruiti is on the case. NBA Playbook has a smart post asking the question, “Can Richard Jefferson bounce back this season?” [...]

  • http://www.airalamo.com bdiddy

    It’s definitely doable to have him moving around more. I don’t think you can ever have too much movement on the offensive end, however the Spurs will have to be smart about it, and it may not work with all of their line-ups.

  • joshmbp

    Overall i think there is some great analysis here and i really appreciate how good of a job youve done. i hope that his shooting percentages swing back towards his numbers from the year before, and i think that, if they do, jefferson will be a completely different player.

    I also think that your first clip doesnt really fit with what the caption states underneath. If you look at the time of game and the number of points scored, it seems more like jefferson is trying to get the tempo back under control more than anything else. If the game continued at that pace the score would be in the 120 range and that isnt spurs basketball. His decision to pull back instead of dunk on the defender could just be an effort to disrupt a rhythm that the grizzlies may have achieved on offense more than anything else. I dont remember this game in particular to give any more analysis but i dont think that the clip is the kind of play that youre referencing in the caption below it.

  • J2

    The spurs were asking Jefferson to take a different role than he was used to and mesh with players he hadn’t played with before. Toward the end of the season, they found the right mix of having Jefferson teamed up with Ginobili and Hill and either Parker and Jefferson will figure out how to mesh better or they won’t spend a tremendous amount of time on the court together. I expect Jefferson’s scoring average to move up to about 15.5 ppg this year and about 4 rpg.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/08/16/richard-jefferson-san-antonio-spurs-plays-cutting-to-hoop/ Moving Richard Jefferson is the San Antonio Spurs best option | 48 Minutes of Hell

    [...] our amigo Sebastian Pruiti of Nets Are Scorching and NBA Playbook took a pretty good look at what Richard Jefferson did, and didn’t do, well last year. According to Synergy Sports, in the Spurs’ half court [...]

  • Tuna

    Rex, I think the PnR with Duncan in the high post is definitely a great play for RJ, and let's not forget that “our newest rookie” Splitter also has great hands/passing skills and plays the PnR extremely well. Also, RJ doesn't need a steady diet of PnR possessions to score his points… just one or two baskets like that at the beginning of the games will give him the touches that get his motor running and his confidence up. There were games like that last year in which RJ was the player we wanted (and expected) to see.

    The first play showcases 1) Manu's passing and court vision; and 2) RJ's BBIQ and court awareness. After his man leaves him to double Duncan, RJ starts to step into the open area to improve Manu's passing angle and indicate that he has a clear path to the basket. The key is to make the other player pay for leaving you to double-team elsewhere, and RJ is smart enough and skilled enough to do that.

    Even when teams stop sagging off RJ on D, he will still get free by moving, with all the screens the Spurs set. I think that's really more his game anyway, rather than to stand around waiting for the ball to be passed to him.

    TP and Manu do get a ton of points from slashing, but that's not their only game… TP has a pretty good mid-range jumper, and I believe he's been working on his 3's this summer. Manu… can… score… from… anywhere.

  • Tuna

    Rex, I think the PnR with Duncan in the high post is definitely a great play for RJ, and let’s not forget that “our newest rookie” Splitter also has great hands/passing skills and plays the PnR extremely well. Also, RJ doesn’t need a steady diet of PnR possessions to score his points… just one or two baskets like that at the beginning of the games will give him the touches that get his motor running and his confidence up. There were games like that last year in which RJ was the player we wanted (and expected) to see.

    The first play showcases 1) Manu’s passing and court vision; and 2) RJ’s BBIQ and court awareness. After his man leaves him to double Duncan, RJ starts to step into the open area to improve Manu’s passing angle and indicate that he has a clear path to the basket. The key is to make the other player pay for leaving you to double-team elsewhere, and RJ is smart enough and skilled enough to do that.

    Even when teams stop sagging off RJ on D, he will still get free by moving, with all the screens the Spurs set. I think that’s really more his game anyway, rather than to stand around waiting for the ball to be passed to him.

    TP and Manu do get a ton of points from slashing, but that’s not their only game… TP has a pretty good mid-range jumper, and I believe he’s been working on his 3′s this summer. Manu… can… score… from… anywhere.

  • Tuna

    Rex, I think the PnR with Duncan in the high post is definitely a great play for RJ, and let’s not forget that “our newest rookie” Splitter also has great hands/passing skills and plays the PnR extremely well. Also, RJ doesn’t need a steady diet of PnR possessions to score his points… just one or two baskets like that at the beginning of the games will give him the touches that get his motor running and his confidence up. There were games like that last year in which RJ was the player we wanted (and expected) to see.

    The first play showcases 1) Manu’s passing and court vision; and 2) RJ’s BBIQ and court awareness. After his man leaves him to double Duncan, RJ starts to step into the open area to improve Manu’s passing angle and indicate that he has a clear path to the basket. The key is to make the other player pay for leaving you to double-team elsewhere, and RJ is smart enough and skilled enough to do that.

    Even when teams stop sagging off RJ on D, he will still get free by moving, with all the screens the Spurs set. I think that’s really more his game anyway, rather than to stand around waiting for the ball to be passed to him.

    TP and Manu do get a ton of points from slashing, but that’s not their only game… TP has a pretty good mid-range jumper, and I believe he’s been working on his 3′s this summer. Manu… can… score… from… anywhere.

  • Tuna

    Rex, I think the PnR with Duncan in the high post is definitely a great play for RJ, and let’s not forget that “our newest rookie” Splitter also has great hands/passing skills and plays the PnR extremely well. Also, RJ doesn’t need a steady diet of PnR possessions to score his points… just one or two baskets like that at the beginning of the games will give him the touches that get his motor running and his confidence up. There were games like that last year in which RJ was the player we wanted (and expected) to see.

    The first play showcases 1) Manu’s passing and court vision; and 2) RJ’s BBIQ and court awareness. After his man leaves him to double Duncan, RJ starts to step into the open area to improve Manu’s passing angle and indicate that he has a clear path to the basket. The key is to make the other player pay for leaving you to double-team elsewhere, and RJ is smart enough and skilled enough to do that.

    Even when teams stop sagging off RJ on D, he will still get free by moving, with all the screens the Spurs set. I think that’s really more his game anyway, rather than to stand around waiting for the ball to be passed to him.

    TP and Manu do get a ton of points from slashing, but that’s not their only game… TP has a pretty good mid-range jumper, and I believe he’s been working on his 3′s this summer. Manu… can… score… from… anywhere.

  • Tuna

    Rex, I think the PnR with Duncan in the high post is definitely a great play for RJ, and let's not forget that “our newest rookie” Splitter also has great hands/passing skills and plays the PnR extremely well. Also, RJ doesn't need a steady diet of PnR possessions to score his points… just one or two baskets like that at the beginning of the games will give him the touches that get his motor running and his confidence up. There were games like that last year in which RJ was the player we wanted (and expected) to see.

    The first play showcases 1) Manu's passing and court vision; and 2) RJ's BBIQ and court awareness. After his man leaves him to double Duncan, RJ starts to step into the open area to improve Manu's passing angle and indicate that he has a clear path to the basket. The key is to make the other player pay for leaving you to double-team elsewhere, and RJ is smart enough and skilled enough to do that.

    Even when teams stop sagging off RJ on D, he will still get free by moving, with all the screens the Spurs set. I think that's really more his game anyway, rather than to stand around waiting for the ball to be passed to him.

    TP and Manu do get a ton of points from slashing, but that's not their only game… TP has a pretty good mid-range jumper, and I believe he's been working on his 3's this summer. Manu… can… score… from… anywhere.

  • http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/09/21/my-favorite-sets-backdoor-lob-plays/ NBA Playbook – A Look At The Playcalling In The NBA Through Videos, Pictures, & Words » My Favorite Sets: Backdoor Lob Plays

    [...] the past, we talked about how much more successful Richard Jefferson was when cutting to the basket last season.  This is one of the ways that the San Antonio Spurs were able to achieve that.   [...]

  • http://managerfantastico.wordpress.com/2010/09/28/jugadores-revelacion-iv-tuvieron-un-mal-ano/ Jugadores revelación (IV): Tuvieron un mal año « Manager Fantástico

    [...] estático a la Bruce Bowen, resultó ser un desastre y terminó promediando sólo 12,3 puntos y con el peor porcentaje de tres puntos de su carrera. Este verano ha cumplido 30 años y renovado con los Spurs por mucho más dinero del que debería. [...]