Can He Bounce Back? Is a new series here at NBAPlaybook, and in it we will be looking at players that had a rough 2010 and determine whether or not it was a fluke or a start of a trend.

Before the 2009-2010 season started, Devin Harris was coming off of an All-Star season and had the Nets’ front office looking like smart guys for getting rid of Jason Kidd and getting Harris and a pick in return.  However, Harris was never really able to get things going this past season as his points per game, assists per game, shooting percentage, and PER all took a pretty big dip.

Where He Struggled

The Training Room

Harris only played in 64 games for the Nets, missing 18 this past season after missing 13 the year before (and 18 more three years ago), Harris’ playing style causes him to get banged up from time to time, but last year the timing of the injuries were especially tough.  Devin missed the entire training camp due to injury, and then after playing in the first two games, Harris had to sit out the next ten.  He just never looked right after missing training camp, and for a guy who relies on his speed and timing to get an advantage, that’s tough.

Getting To The Line/Failing To Draw Contact

During his breakout season two years ago, Devin Harris lived at the free throw line.  Harris racked up a Free Throw Rate of .58, which was 3rd among guards (9th among all players) who played 40+ games and 20+ minutes (The NBA average was .27).  Harris’ FTR in 2010 dropped to .44, and while that is still a pretty good number, Devin Harris struggled to adjust to the way the refs called his games.  So Devin didn’t get as many calls, and that is fine.  The problem however is that Devin never really adjusted, and his shooting percentage suffered because of it:

On these plays Harris is really just launching his body into the paint, hoping for contact, and when he doesn’t get it he just flings the ball at the rim.  Getting to the line is good, but when it is your top priority when driving into the lane, then that is a problem.

Defense

Devin Harris has already been a poor defender since joining the Nets in New Jersey, but Nets’ fans and their coaching staff were willing to live with the inefficiency when he is being productive on the offensive end.  However, when he struggles on offense (which is what happened this year), his defensive lapses become much more of a glaring problem.  The strange thing about Devin’s defensive struggles is that he has all the skills to be a good defender.  He’s quick, long, and has good foot speed, but he is just lazy in his technique.  Instead of using his feet to beat offensive players, he reaches and goes in for steals way too much, this gets him caught flat-footed and is what gets him beat by slower points:

On this play, Devin is leaning too far forward, so when Carlos Arroyo makes his move to the basket there is no way that Devin can keep up. He manages to take one last swipe at the ball, but Arroyo gets to the rim.

And here, as Jarrett Jack pulls back his dribble, Devin Harris gets out of his defensive stance and walks towards the basketball. Jack takes advantage of Devin getting too tall in his stance and he attacks the basket hard. These aren’t elite level point guards taking it to Devin either. These are just your run of the mill points who are embarrassing Devin and getting to the basket.

Will He Bounce Back?

I think Devin Harris will have a bounce back season, and that isn’t just wishful thinking because I run a Nets blog.  With the departure of Vince Carter had to step in and become the leader off the court, and on it (in terms of scoring).  That isn’t what he does well, and with Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, and Brook Lopez all looking to get involved in the offense more, Harris won’t be the guy defenses come out and try to stop at all costs.

In addition, the way the Nets’ seem to be building their roster focusing on an athletic team who can run.  That would be great news for Devin, because he thrives in transition:

In addition, the Nets finally have some shooters on their team.  Last year, the Nets shot 31.8% from behind the arc, just beating out the Detroit Pistons and just avoiding a last place in that department (the Pistons’ shot 31.4% for what it’s worth).  This really hurt Devin Harris in a number of ways, the first being it dropped his assist numbers.  According to Hoopdata.com, Harris saw his assists that resulted in 2 point field goals actually go up from 4.6 a game in 2008-2009 to 5.4 a game in 2009-2010.  However, his assists leading to 3 pointers dropped from 2.3 to 1.2 a game.  With guys like Anthony Morrow and Travis Outlaw now on the Nets’ roster, expect that number to go up.  Finally with three point shooters on the court this prevents defenses from sagging too far off and helping on Harris’ drives.  More lanes for Devin Harris means more points.

In conclusion, I feel like the things that caused Devin Harris to have such a poor season are correctable (save the injuries), and he is shaping up to have a bounce back year because the Nets will be running more, and he is now surrounded by some pretty good shooters.  Plus, he and Brook Lopez can do this on any given possession: