With “Taking The Next Step” we are going to take a look at players who had a nice season last year, and figure out what they need to do to build off of last season and have an even better year this year.  Today we are going to look at Milwaukee Bucks’ PG, Brandon Jennings

Brandon Jennings used his 55 point game against the Golden State Warriors to stay in the rookie of the year conversation, but there was really no way he was going to take home that award.  That game had everyone really over-hyping Jennings, and many think he was better than he actually was last year.  That doesn’t mean that Jennings had a bad season, not at all.  In my opinion, Jennings had an average season, and the numbers back that up.  According to HoopData.com, Jennings posted a PER of 14.50 (remember the league average is 15.0) last year.

What He Did Well

Running The Team

When the Bucks announced that Brandon Jennings would be the starting point guard for the Bucks, I was personally unsure if he would be able to handle the position.  However, Brandon Jennings did a very good job of running the team (for the most part).  Jennings was 14th among all guards who played more than 25 minutes a game in APG with 5.7.  He also limited his turnovers (I thought this area would be where Jennings would struggle), only averaging 2.4 per game.  Jennings assist rate was 23.43 which was above average (the average was 22.58) for guards who played more than 25 minutes per game.  He achieved this by being smart with the basketball:

Here, Jennings gets the rebound and tries to rush the ball up the court.  He explores the lane, but nothing is there, so instead of forcing it, he smartly kicks it out to Kurt Thomas, who knocks down the open jumper.

In terms of his passing, Brandon Jennings was really successful in getting the ball to his teammates in a scoring position at the rim.  2.2 of his 5.7 assists per game led to shots at the rim (only 1.6 of his assists came from three point shots), and another 0.5 per game came from inside 10 feet.

What impresses me about these clips is that it seems Jennings is always looking to find an open teammate, even when he doesn’t have the basketball.  In the second clip, Jennings is following the action without the ball, and as soon as he gets it, he fires it to the cutter.

PNR

The Milwaukee Bucks were ranked 11th in Synergy’s pick and roll ball handler category with 1.04 PPP while shooting 50.5% from the field.  Brandon Jennings running the point on these PNRs was a large reason why:

I really like how Jennings ate up a lot of ground when coming off of this screen. This forces the hedge man to come way off of the player he is defending. On the kickout, he needs to close-out hard and that opens up the driving lane.

Also, on pick and rolls, Brandon Jennings sets up his passes beautifully:

As Jennings comes off of this screen, instead of sharply taking it to the foul line he curls it a bit, giving a ton of space for Andrew Bogut to roll to the basket freely.

What Needs To Change

Shot Selection

For someone who makes such great decisions when it comes to passing/when to pass, Brandon Jennings is a terrible decision maker when it comes to shot selection.  Jennings scored a lot last year, 15.5 points per game, but it came on an insane 14.8 shots per game.  That is terribly inefficient.  Where Jennings really struggles is when the offense breaks down and he is stuck with the basketball in ISO situations.  According to Synergy, Jennings was dreadful in ISO sets, only scoring .73 points per every possession, ranking him 203rd in the NBA while shooting just 34.4%

When Brandon Jennings wants to take a shot, it becomes painfully obvious, and defenses can almost tell when Jennings gets into “shoot mode”.  Both of these possessions are especially bad because there is no exploration into the lane or anything like that.  Jennings simply dribbles around until he feels like he has enough space to shoot, and jacks up the shot.

Off Ball Defense

On defense, it is not much better for Jennings.  He ranks 146th total in terms of points per possession on the defensive end, and where he really struggles is in spot-up situations (which he faced 17% of the time).  The main reason is that Jennings tends to over help and not be able to get back and challenge his man attempting the shot.

Here, the Bucks’ opponents needed a three point shot. Instead of staying home on his man, Jennings tries to jump the basketball, and fails miserably. His man knocks down the wide open three.

Here, Brandon Jennings helps on a Kirk Hinrich drive, but instead of doing so properly (digging in while still facing his man), he completely turns his back to his man, Derrick Rose. So when the pass is made, Rose needs to do a complete 180 before closing out on his man, and it takes him too long to get there.

Will He Take The Next Step?

After taking everything into consideration, I think Brandon Jennings will take the next step this year and become an above-average player in the NBA. The Bucks now have more scoring options on their team, and this will allow Jennings to use his above average passing ability even more. Also, more scoring options means less ISO opportunities for Brandon Jennings. In an ideal situation, Bucks fans are going to want to see Jennings scoring stay the same while his shot attempts go down and his assists go up. I think this can happen.

On the defensive end, bad help is something that you see rookies struggle with all of the time. I think the fact that he started 82 games last year will give him enough experience to make sure that this won’t be a serious problem again this year.