With the Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks now official, the question that seems to be asked the most is, “Can Carmelo Anthony & Amar’e Stoudemire work together on the offensive end efficiently?” After looking at the numbers and watching some game tape, it is my opinion that Carmelo Anthony (and Chauncey Billups to a lesser degree) does not fit into the Knicks’ offensive system the way that it is currently built.

I came to this conclusion by first looking at what the Knicks do on the offensive end compared to what Carmelo Anthony does on the offensive end:

Looking at these two graphs, you notice that what Carmelo Anthony does a lot of, while having success, on the offensive end (ISO, Post-up), the Knicks simply don’t do in their offensive system.  With the Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony was ISO’d 36.9% of the time, while posting up 15.7% of the time.  Anthony has success in both of these spots, posting a PPP of .853 when ISO’d (110th in the NBA), and a PPP of  .941 when posting up (54th in the NBA).

While ISO plays are at least part of the Knicks’ offensive game plan, running ISOs 13.4% of the time, they simply don’t post their players up, only running Post-Up plays 5% of the time.  So right off the bat, the Knicks’ offensive system takes away something that Carmelo Anthony does very well.

The problem that I noticed the Knicks have when posting up a wing with Amar’e Stoudemire still on the court is that there is poor spacing.  Stoudemire tends to shade the basketball, allowing his defender to cover both the player posting up and Stoudemire at the same time:

Here, Wilson Chandler gets the ball on the block with Amar’e Stoudemire on the ball side elbow.  Instead of cutting through the lane or moving to the opposite block to provide solid spacing, he stays at the elbow and that allows his man to help and stay with Stoudemire.  This forces Chandler to turn baseline and miss.

On this play, Chandler gets the basketball in the post with Stoudemire on the opposite block.  Instead of staying there to provide spacing, Stoudermire floats into the paint, bringing the help defense right to Chandler.  Instead of taking his man to the middle of the lane, Chandler is now forced to take a turn around jumper.

Stoudemire’s tendency to shade the basketball could actually affect the Knicks and any ISO plays that they run for Anthony.  Before this trade, the Knicks didn’t run a lot of ISOs for players not named Amar’e Stoudemire (54.3% of all ISO possessions were for Stoudemire).   When they did, Stoudemire again had a tendency to shade the basketball:

Here, Stoudemire makes the pass to Chandler on the wing.  After making the pass, Stoudemire runs right to Chandler looking to get involved in the offense instead of giving him space to work.  This gives Chandler only one option, and that option is to go baseline.

To me it looks like Stoudemire isn’t comfortable noot being involved on the offensive end, and when he doesn’t have the basketball, he floats to it waiting to get the ball back.  Now, there is a possibility that this changes when it is Carmelo Anthony posting up/ISOing instead of Wilson Chandler, but that remains to be seen.

Perhaps the one saving grace for the New York Knicks is Carmelo Anthony’s success when taking spot up jumpers.  I have talked about Anthony spotting up in the past, and it is something I don’t think he did enough of in Denver.  It is also something that happens a lot in New York’s offense, as it results in Spot Up possessions 22.4% of the time (for reference, this is 5th most in the NBA).  With that being said, Anthony’s spot ups usually come later in the game after he gets himself post touches and sees the ball going in time after time.

In addition to bringing Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks also swapped point guards, shipping out Raymond Felton and bringing in Chauncey Billups.  While many Knicks’ fans think Billups is an upgrade over Felton (when comparing player to player, he probably is), it is my opinion that Billups is a worse fit for the Knicks and the system they run.  The biggest difference between Felton and Billups is the way they play when running the pick and roll (which is the most important role for a PG when playing for the Knicks):

When coming off of ballscreens, Felton is looking for his teammates than he is his own offense, passing it to a teammate 55.8% of the time (looking for his own offense 44.2% of the the time).  Out of those passes, he hits the roll man 43.1% of the time while hitting a teammate spotting up 52.7% of the time.  Felton hits a cutter just 4.2% of the time.  These numbers indicate that Felton isn’t holding onto the basketball (cuts need to develop and for that to happen the PG needs to hold onto the ball), instead he is coming off the screen and quickly finding a teammate to hit depending on the way the defense is playing him.

While Felton is more pass oriented coming off of screens, Billups is more interested in looking for his offense.  According to Synergy, Billups looks for his offense 51.3% of the time when coming off of ballscreens, passing it just 48.7% of the time.  Out of those passes, he hits the roll man 38% of the time and a player spotting up 48% of the time.  The rest of the time (14% to be exact) Billups is hitting cutters.  To me, this means that Billups has a tendency to hold the basketball when coming off of screens (he is penetrating looking for his own offense and a teammate cuts off of that).  A point guard who dominates the basketball when playing the pick and roll game doesn’t work unless you are Steve Nash (Billups isn’t pass first like Nash).

If Mike D’Antoni wants to stick to his offensive system (and he has shown that he is stubborn in the past), I just don’t see Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire (and to a lesser extent Chauncey Billups) working out together on the court.  Anthony is extremely successful when posting up, but the Knicks don’t do that in their offense.  The Knicks can ISO him, but Stoudemire doesn’t really know how to play off of the basketball, and he has a tendency to shade the basketball.  I just don’t see how the Knicks can get Anthony to score efficiently the way they play right now.

All of this being said, D’Antoni could change his offensive system to incorporate more post-up opportunities (which not only suits Anthony’s game, but gives more post up chances for Amar’e Stoudemire who is 16th in terms of PPP when posting up).  If that happens and Billups changes his play, this could work out.

However, as presently constructed I just don’t see the Knicks offense working with the roster that is now in place after the trade.