Orlando Makes The Correct Decision To Foul Up 3, But Fail To Execute | NBA Playbook

Orlando Makes The Correct Decision To Foul Up 3, But Fail To Execute

Whenever the topic of fouling up three in the final seconds came up, I was always in favor of playing straight defense, no matter the situation.  My stance on that topic has softened quite a bit, partly because I have seen it work plenty of times this season, and partly because a lot of people smarter than me are in favor of fouling up three.  Most notably, Del Harris, who mentioned his strategy at Sloan Sports Analytics Conference:

He teaches his teams to foul only with less than six seconds left and only if a player’s back or side is facing them; if a player is facing the rim, he wants his players to just defend the shot (in addition, Harris also mentions that you need to let the ref know you are fouling to ensure that it does in fact get called). Both Buford and Harris mentioned that nobody seems to remember when fouling up three does work and that it only gets talked about when it fails, and this is what is in the coach’s mind when they decide not to foul.

I am talking about this, because in the 4th quarter of their game against the Milwaukee Bucks the Magic found themselves in a situation where they had to decide whether to foul or not.  Up three with 5.1 seconds left, coach Stan Van Gundy decided to have Jameer Nelson foul Brandon Jennings.  The strategy is sound, but the problem is Nelson fails to execute:

Jennings makes the catch, turns and faces, jab steps, and then pulls up for the shot.  If Nelson wants to foul, he needs to foul right on the catch.  Once Jennings faces up, Nelson needs to play straight defense.  Instead Nelson still attempts to commit the foul.  The problem is that Jennings’ jab step gets Nelson off balance and by the time he recovers, Jennings is already in his shooting motion.

If Nelson, Van Gundy, and the Magic would have stuck to Del Harris’ strategy Nelson would have realized that he should play straight defense in this situation (because Jennings catches and faces up quickly), not fouling, and probably avoiding over time.

17
Mar 2011
POSTED BY Sebastian Pruiti
POSTED IN 4th Quarters Final Possession Defense Late Game Strategy Milwaukee Bucks Orlando Magic
DISCUSSION 3 Comments
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  • Kamron

    Im not sure exactly what Nelson was thinking- he doesnt need to get set in front of Jennings or react to the jab step, he just needs to reach out his arms and commit the foul (if that's the plan). He looks like he wants to commit the foul on his own terms, after getting into a good defensive posture, which only makes sense to me if
    1)He thinks he might not need to foul at all, since he's got Jennings pretty far from the hoop
    2)He wants to use the foul going for a legitimate shot at a steal, so he tries to gets squared up in front of Jennings

    The first one at least makes sense- if Nelson thought he might not foul unless Jennings was getting to where he had a decent look (which is, as you say, probably a bad idea but at least is rational). And then, when Nelson gets totally beat, he's too flustered to get that program out of his head and make the right play.

  • Kamron

    Im not sure exactly what Nelson was thinking- he doesnt need to get set in front of Jennings or react to the jab step, he just needs to reach out his arms and commit the foul (if that’s the plan). He looks like he wants to commit the foul on his own terms, after getting into a good defensive posture, which only makes sense to me if
    1)He thinks he might not need to foul at all, since he’s got Jennings pretty far from the hoop
    2)He wants to use the foul going for a legitimate shot at a steal, so he tries to gets squared up in front of Jennings

    The first one at least makes sense- if Nelson thought he might not foul unless Jennings was getting to where he had a decent look (which is, as you say, probably a bad idea but at least is rational). And then, when Nelson gets totally beat, he’s too flustered to get that program out of his head and make the right play.

  • Kamron

    Im not sure exactly what Nelson was thinking- he doesnt need to get set in front of Jennings or react to the jab step, he just needs to reach out his arms and commit the foul (if that's the plan). He looks like he wants to commit the foul on his own terms, after getting into a good defensive posture, which only makes sense to me if
    1)He thinks he might not need to foul at all, since he's got Jennings pretty far from the hoop
    2)He wants to use the foul going for a legitimate shot at a steal, so he tries to gets squared up in front of Jennings

    The first one at least makes sense- if Nelson thought he might not foul unless Jennings was getting to where he had a decent look (which is, as you say, probably a bad idea but at least is rational). And then, when Nelson gets totally beat, he's too flustered to get that program out of his head and make the right play.