After a Nicolas Batum three pointer with 28.8 seconds left, the Portland Trailblazers found themselves trailing the Los Angeles Lakers by two points.  The Blazers now had a decision to make, either foul and extend the game or play straight defense, hoping to force a turnover or a miss.  The Blazers choose to do the latter, and Derek Fisher eventually knocks down a jumper that stretches the lead to four points with 10 seconds left, effectively ending the game.  Here is the possession:

The initial strategy here is a good one.  The Blazers use a double team to force the ball out of Kobe Bryant’s hands, and once he gives it up, Brandon Roy denies him, preventing Bryant from getting the basketball back.  However, after Bryant gives up the basketball, Rudy Fernandez seems to be running around, unsure of what he should do.  He double teams Gasol as soon as Fisher passes it to him, and then after the pass is made back to Fisher, he makes a terrible decision to gamble for the steal.  Fisher easily dribbles around Fernandez, gets to the elbow, and knocks down the wide open jumper.

This defensive strategy is definitely a call from Nate McMillan on the sideline.  We can tell because we see Brandon Roy look over after Bryant initially makes the catch on the inbounds pass.  I am ok with the decision not to foul here (if you get a stop, 4 seconds is more than enough time to get a look from a SLOB set), my problem is with the strategy of having Rudy Fernandez double every pass.  The initial double team of Bryant forces the Blazers to rotate, creating some mismatches, the biggest one being Batum covering Gasol.  However, when Gasol makes the catch he seems to have no interest in taking advantage of this mismatch, or even dribbling.  There is no need for Fernandez to double him, and that double is what causes the lazy, wrap-around steal effort from Fernandez, which creates the open jumper.

If I am Nate McMillan here, I stick with the same initial strategy (no foul, force the ball out of Kobe’s hands, and then deny him), but I would have the rest of the team playing straight man to man defense after rotating, despite the mismatches.  Now will this guarantee that the Blazers would get a stop?  No.  However, I do think the shot attempted would be much harder than a wide open pull up jumper.  At least it would be contested.