In a game where a loss would just about end all playoff hopes, the Milwaukee Bucks found themselves trailing the Indiana Pacers by three points with 38.3 seconds left.  After getting a basket to cut the lead down to 1 with 26.7 seconds left, the Bucks were faced with a decision, either foul and extend the game or play straight defense, hope to get a rebound, and try to win the game in regulation.  The Bucks decided not to foul:

The Pacers, who called a timeout after Salmons’ basket, get the ball into Darren Collison and let him milk the clock and then run a pick and roll late.  Collison gets a decent look, but missess and the Bucks’ corral the rebound with 2.7 seconds left.

The problem I have with this strategy is that with 26.7 seconds on the clock there is only a 2.7 second differential (which is how much time is left when the Bucks do get the basketball), and personally, that is not enough time.  Especially when you consider that the Bucks’ offense is at its best when its scorers (Brandon Jennings/John Salmons) get the ball and can take a few dribbles.

In addition, if you foul early in the clock, you are still guaranteed the ball back in a one possession game, except now you have more time.  With more time, you can run a better set, shot a little bit earlier, and give yourself a chance to grab an offensive rebound.  Instead, the Bucks were forced into a catch and shoot situation from the side:

The Bucks try to run a play to get the ball to John Salmons, but they are unable to and Drew Gooden is forced to be an outlet, make the catch, and take a contested three point shot.  If there was more time on the clock, the Bucks would not have found themselves in this situation.

First, they wouldn’t be forced to try and get the ball to their scorer (Salmons) in a position to score right off the catch.  This means that Salmons would able to flash behind the half court line, get the basketball, and then work an ISO or whatever set the Bucks want to run.  Secondly, if the defense denies him and the Bucks are forced to go to their safety valve, instead of Gooden making the catch and then shooting it, Gooden would get the inbounds pass and then have time to get it to a better scorer.  However, because of the Bucks’ decision not to foul, they ended up with a three point shot from Drew Gooden with their playoff lives on the line.