Oklahoma City – The Numbers*

• Pace: 95.0 (12th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 108.6 (4th)
• True Shooting Percentage: 56.1% (7th)
• Assist Rate: 18.95 (25th)
• Turnover Rate: 13.10 (12th)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 27.38 (11th)
• Free Throw Rate: 36.3 (3rd)
• Three Point Rate: 25.8 (7th)

Oklahoma City – Strengths

Working Off Screens Away From The Ball

When looking at the Thunder’s offense, their ability to come off of screens away from the basketball and score really sticks out.  The Thunder have the highest points per possession in this category, scoring a little over a point per possession (1.01 to be exact).  Obviously, part of the reason is Kevin Durant.

Durant is a terrific shooter and that seems to translate well when he is coming off of screens (He also gets a large chunk of the Thunder’s off screens possessions – 63.9%).  Right now, he is at his best when he is coming off of screens to his right side.  Despite not doing it as much (179 times on his right, 239 times on his left), Durant shoots slightly better and that leads to him being a little more efficient going that way.  With Durant’s height, he doesn’t really need to do anything special setting up these screens, because all he needs is that sliver of space to get his shot off.  This means that he comes straight off the screen more times than not (57.3% of the time when coming off of screens on his right side):

In both of these clips, you see just how much of an advantage Durant’s length is.  Here, both of these screens are solid but not amazingly effective.  They get the defender trailing Durant a bit and he is able to now shoot over them.  It isn’t like Ray Allen where he needs to do all of this work to set up this screens.  That makes it easier for Durant and the Thunder to get decent looks.

The Thunder’s off screen shooting isn’t all Durant though.  James Harden is even more efficient (in terms of PPP) than Durant when working off of screens away from the basketball.  Harden is posting a PPP of 1.19 which is 9th in the NBA of players among with at least 20 off screen possessions.  While Harden is a good shooter coming off screens (49%), his efficiency comes from his ability to get to the free throw line.  Harden gets to the line 22.3% of the time when working off of screens away from the basketball, by far tops in the league.

Harden likes to come off of screens on his left (does it over 60% of the time), but like Durant, he is most efficient coming off of screens to his right.  To get to the line, Harden takes does two things well.  First, he is really good at using screens, creating space between himself and his man.  Then, with his man rushing to close out, he is able to draw fouls (both when defenders are rushing to close out on him and when he pump fakes, getting his defender in the air, and creating the contact):

Here, Harden does a great job of setting up the screen that frees him up in the corner.  He fakes as if he is cutting baseline and then quickly flashes out to the corner, creating space between his man and the basketball.  His man rushes to close out and fouls him in the process.

On this play, Harden again does a fantastic job of setting up the screen and creating space between himself and the man. With his man hustling to close out, Harden pump fakes and then creates the contact for the foul.

Transition Offense

According to Synergy, the Thunder are the 3rd most efficient team when it comes to transition offense.  While it might seem like it is because of Russell Westbrook, but he is actually one of the least efficient guys for the Thunder on the break (turnovers are a big reason why).  Again, it is Harden and Durant who really make the Thunder’s transition offense go, with both players shooting over 60% on the break.

Durant is incredibly efficient on the left wing, scoring 70 points on 38 possessions on 85.2% shooting.  What makes Durant so good is that he has the ability to pull up and knock shots down off of the dribble on the break:

Here, Durant gets the ball with the defense back and protecting the rim.  Instead of forcing the issue, he simply pulls up for the jumper and knock it down.

Meanwhile, James Harden has success on the break with the basketball in his hands.  In terms of PPP, Harden is the best ball handler on the break in the league, scoring 1.64 points per possession on 82.8% shooting.  What makes Harden so great on the break is that he puts pressure on the defense, forcing them to step up and stop him.  If he doesn’t he takes it all of the way to the rim.  He never picks up his dribble until he has to:

When on the break, you are taught to force the defense to make a decision.  This is exactly what James Harden does here.  He dribbles straight at the defender and when the defender never steps up, Harden keeps going.  The defense steps up too late and bumps Harden, who is able to finish while drawing the contact.

Oklahoma City – Weaknesses

Post Offense

With the Thunder, they don’t really have anyone who can dominate in the block.  The only solid producer in the post isn’t on the team anymore (Jeff Green).  Green got most of the post up opportunities, so much so, that he is still the Thunder’s most used player on the block.  The other three most used players in the post are Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka.  All three players struggle in the post, as all three of them are in the ball 1/4 of the league in terms of PPP.  The best shooter on the block out of those three is Ibaka who shoots just 39%.

This lack of post presence is going to hurt the Thunder in this series in my opinion.  Without the treat of being able to dump the basketball into the block, the Nuggets’ bigs (Nene especially) are going to be able to hover and help on dribble penetration.

Denver – The Numbers*

• Pace: 98.0 (2nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 109.5 (1st)
• True Shooting Percentage: 57.4% (1st)
• Assist Rate: 20.51 (12th)
• Turnover Rate: 13.09 (11th)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 23.85 (27th)
• Free Throw Rate: 36.7 (1st)
• Three Point Rate: 21.2 (19th)

Denver – Strengths

Post Offense

Unlike the Thunder, the Denver Nuggets are one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to scoring in the post.  Carmelo Anthony really helped the Nuggets’ numbers there, but even with him gone, they have continued to have success.  This is because Nene is one of the best post players in the league, scoring 1.12 points per possessions.  What makes Nene so effective is that it is hard to double him, because when it comes, he is very good at passing out of double teams.  When Nene kicks the basketball out, the Nuggets are scoring 1.378 points per possession, which is in the top 15% of the league.  Nene always stays under control and he never seems to panic when the double team comes.  In fact, it is almost like he is waiting for it:

On this play, Nene makes the catch (against Anthony Randolph?!?!?!) and is immediately  looking for the double team.  As soon is it come, he kicks it out to J.R. Smith, who knocks down the three pointer.

Here, Nene makes the catch and again looks for the double team.  After looking for the double, Nene starts to make his move.  However, just because he is making his move doesn’t mean he isn’t looking for the double.  Here, Fisher doubles down and Nene quickly kicks the ball out.

Spot Up Shooting

With Carmelo Anthony gone, the Nuggets have really turned into a fantastic spot-up shooting team.  They have great ball movement and really zip the ball around the perimeter.  They also spread the wealth.  4 Nuggets players (Harrington, Afflalo, Smith, and Lawson) have over 200 spot up opportunities.  These guys, except Harrington, are extremely efficient when spotting up as the three are all in the top 13% of players in terms of PPP.  In addition, Raymond Felton has been shooting extremely well in catch and shoot situations as he is currently in the top 1% of players in catch and shoot situations, posting a PPP of 1.30 on his 57 possessions (scoring a total of 74 points).

Denver – Weaknesses

Cutting Off The Ball

The Denver Nuggets is so good (the most efficient offense in the league) that it is hard to find a weakness.  However, if I would have to pick it would be the lack of cuts off of the basketball.  We talked about the Nuggets spotting up and how good they are at it, but at times, the Nuggets seem to rely on it too much.  What I mean by that is that all of the Nuggets can tend to stand around the three point line waiting for the kickout pass.  When that happens, Denver is making it real easy for the defense.  The Nuggets need to cut off of the ball to try and keep the defense honest, and that is something that they haven’t really been doing too effectively.

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*All numbers come from the fantastic website Hoopdata.com