Dallas Mavericks – The Numbers*

• Pace: 93.1 (20th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.6 (8th)
• True Shooting Percentage: 56.5% (4th)
• Assist Rate: 23.20 (2nd)
• Turnover Rate: 13.60 (21st)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 24.08 (26th)
• Free Throw Rate: 28.6 (21st)
• Three Point Rate: 27.4 (3rd)

Dallas Mavericks - Strengths

Zone Offense

With the Portland Trailblazers playing zone defense the second most in the NBA (behind the Mavericks), zone offense is going to be an important aspect in this series.  Over the course of the season, the Dallas Mavericks have shown that they can beat the zone just as well as they can play it.  The Mavericks have scored 135 points in 123 zone possessions for a PPP of 1.098, ranking them second in the NBA.  The key to the Mavericks’ zone is sharp ball and player movement around the perimeter (with a big at the high post) until eventually they are able to get an open look.  The beauty of this offense is the fact there is no set “rules.”  Everyone has a responsibility, but they can do a few different things.

What you have here is four players on the outside with a big at the high post.  The player at the high post looks for a soft spot in the zone to sit and get the pass, but he can also screen the top of the zone (either with a ball or off ball screen).  The four perimeter players basically wheel around as if they are on a string.  Once a pass gets made, the passer cuts through, and the rest of the offense rotates off of that.  This movement and spacing combined with quick ball movement makes it tough for the defense, and in this case Jason Terry is able to get the open jumper on the baseline.

Here it is again.  Here, you have the same basic principles with a few more things added (some dribbling and a handoff).  Many people think that any kind of dribbling against the zone is bad, and while that is part true, if you are dribbling in the flow of the offense (vs. pounding the ball on the floor, holding onto it, looking for something to do) it can be pretty effective here.  The above play is a perfect example.  Jason Terry gets the basketball at the top of the key as the rest of the offense rotate around him, keeping the offense’s shape.  Kidd cuts right in front of him and gets the handoff, again dribbling.  Much like Terry, Kidd is dribbling with a purpose and he attacks the defense, forces them to step up, leaving Shawn Marion open for the lay-up.

Here it is yet again, and this time Peja Stojakovic is able to get a wide open three point shot at the top of the key that he knocks down.

Here is one more look.  Again you have the cutting around the perimeter, but this time the ball goes to Tyson Chandler at the high post.  What makes this so dangerous is that everyone is cutting around him it is hard for the defense to focus on him with the rest of the team cutting.  Rodrigue Beaubois gets open, gets the basketball, and is easily able to get all of the way to the rim.

Post Up

In addition to being successful against the zone, the Dallas Mavericks are the best post-up team in the NBA in terms of points per possession.  Dirk Nowitzki gets almost half of these post up opportunities (49.7% to be exact), and that makes sense given that he is in the top 7% of the NBA when posting up.  Nowitzki likes getting the ball on the right block (56.6% of the time) and when he does make the catch, he loves to turn to the middle (48.1% of the time) and when he turns to the middle, he takes a jumper (80% of the time).  On these jump shots when he turns to the middle, Nowitzki is putting up a PPP of 1.30 on 59.5% shooting (which puts him in the top 2% of the league).  Obviously, Nowitzki’s height is what makes him so tough to defend:

Here, Nowtizki gets to where he wants to be on the court, and when that happens, Nowitzki simply turns around and shoots it over his defender.  The fact that Nowitzki can fade in addition to his length makes this shot practically unstoppable.

Even when you push him off of his spot, Nowitzki still is pretty damn hard to stop.  This is because I am fully confident that Nowitzki can hit it from the three point line.  Here, he gets the basketball around the three point line, backs his man down a bit, then hits his turnaround jumper.

Dallas Mavericks – Weaknesses

Finishing Off Of Cuts

If there was one aspect where the Mavericks struggle, it is finishing off of basket cuts.  If you are looking for a culprit, that would be Shawn Marion.  Despite posting a PPP of 1.09, putting him in the bottom 1/4 of the league, Marion gets a bulk of the Mavericks’ cut possessions, getting 32.2% of them.  Something that I have noticed is when Marion makes the catch, he has a tendency to bring the basketball down before going up with it, allowing the defense to recover and challenge the shot effectively:

On both of these plays, Marion gets the basketball cutting to the rim in a pretty good position.  However, instead of going straight up with it, he takes a split second the bring the ball down.  This might look insignificant, but in the NBA that is enough time for a defender to recover, which happens in both cases.

Portland Trailblazers – The Numbers*

• Pace: 90.6 (30th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.6 (10th)
• True Shooting Percentage: 53.3% (22nd)
• Assist Rate: 20.48 (14th)
• Turnover Rate: 12.62 (6th)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 29.46 (3rd)
• Free Throw Rate: 27.8 (27th)
• Three Point Rate: 22.8 (12th)

Portland Trailblazers - Strengths

Lobs

If you would ask anyone about the Portland Trailblazers offense, something you are going to hear from just about everybody is the word “lob” (while I don’t have exact numbers the Blazers love running lob plays, especially for their big man LaMarcus Aldridge.  What is so special about the Blazers and their lobs is that they can do it from a number of different situations.

Here, Aldridge sets a pindown screen and forcing his man to hedge out.  Once that happens, Aldridge heads straight to the rim and gets the lob pass.

These next two lobs come off of the threat of Aldridge in the post.  In both instances, Aldridge is posting his man with the defender trying to front him.  Both defenders get a little too high and Aldridge is able to read it and roll straight to the rim (he might be the best in the league at this).

Shooting Off Of Screens

In addition to lobs, the Portland Trailblazers are very good when they have their wings coming off of screens away from the basketball.  The Blazers are 8th in the NBA in terms of PPP, scoring 0.945 points per possession.  The best cutter off of the screen for the Blazers is Wesley Matthews, especially when he cuts off of screens on his right, specifically when he curls off of the screen to the rim.  Matthews is in the top 2% of all NBA players when this happens, posting a PPP of 1.3 of 73% shooting.  Matthews is so good at curling off of the rim because he is able to read his defender successfully, only curling screens when it is wide open:

In both instances above, Matthews feels his man trailing him opening up the curl.  In addition, in both of these cases, the screener’s man doesn’t hedge off of the screener, creating a wide open lane.  Matthews gets the ball and is able to finish easily.

Portland Trailblazers - Weaknesses

Zone Offense

Earlier in the post, I mentioned that the Mavericks and the Blazers are the two teams that use the zone the most in the NBA (Dallas is first, Portland is second).  A couple days ago, I mentioned on Twitter that I thought the zone wouldn’t used because both teams would be prepared.  That is before I looked at the numbers and saw that Portland is very poor at beating the zone.  In terms of PPP, the Blazers are 29th in the league, scoring just 0.762 points every zone possession.  The reason why they struggle so much is because they don’t do something that Dallas does very well, zipping the basketball around:

In both of these clips, you see the Blazers passing the ball around, holding it too much.  The reason why everyone is holding the basketball is because nobody really knows what to do.  It is pass, hold, look, and pass.  With everyone holding the basketball you are allowing the defense to rotate, get set, and then rotate again, rather then keeping the defense moving.  In addition, you see a lot of pointless dribbling (compare it to Terry/Kidd dribbling).  I am surprised that the Blazers are this poor at the zone considering they use it so much they should understand what works and what doesn’t work.  If the Blazers continue to hold the basketball against Dallas and their zone, they could be in trouble.

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*All numbers come from the fantastic website Hoopdata.com