Oklahoma City Thunder – The Numbers*

• Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (14th)
• Opp. TS%: 53.5% (11th)
• Opp. Assist Rate: 19.24 (8th)
• Opp. Turnover Rate: 12.95 (19th)
• Defensive Rebound Rate: 73.64 (17th)
• Block Rate: 6.1 (4th)
• Opp. Free Throw Rate: 30.7 (20th)
• Opp. Three Point Rate: 19.6 (3rd)

Oklahoma City Thunder - Strengths

Defending The Roll Man

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to stopping the roll man on the pick and roll.  They rank 2nd (only behind the Boston Celtics) in terms of PPP allowed, giving up just 0.906 points per possession on 43.5% shooting.  On the pick and roll the Thunder are determined to get the ball out of the ball handlers hand and keeping the roll man out of the lane.  To do this, you have to be willing to give up something.  What the Thunder are willing to give up is the pick and pop.  The Thunder are willing to live with opposing bigs taking long twos at the top of the key, and this season they have proven this is an effective strategy to force misses:

Here, Brandon Jennings comes off of the ball screen and Kendrick Perkins (the man covering the screener) basically switches onto Jennings.  As this happens Russell Westbrook comes over the top of the screen.  With Serge Ibaka protecting the paint, they are giving the screener a free pass to pop out for an open jumper.  He does this and misses.

Here is another example, and you can see the Thunder utilizing the same defensive strategy.  On this particular play, you can really see the Thunder’s strategy in full effect because as the ball goes to Jason Thompson, James Harden steps to him but doesn’t close-out.  This means they are willing to give up the jumper, which Harden takes and misses.

Post Defense

According to the numbers, the Thunder are an ok defensive team in the post, ranking 20th in the league in terms of points per possession and giving up 44.1% shooting.  However, this time the numbers don’t really tell the whole story because the Thunder’s interior defense has become a strength ever since Kendrick Perkins stepped on the court for the Thunder.  The arrival of Perkins has allowed Serge Ibaka to step away from on-ball responsibility in the post and concentrate more on helping in the paint and bothering shots on the weakside.  So when a team tries to post-up the Thunder, you have Kendrick Perkins beating up the posting player, allowing Ibaka to range over and block the shot from the weakside:

Here, Nene gets the basketball in the post and tries to make his move against Kendrick Perkins.  Perkins is so physical and so tough to get by that it takes him a little bit longer to make his move.  This allows Ibaka the time to come over and time Nene’s shot attempt well enough to get the big block.  In addition to forcing post players into taking a longer time (this is because Perkins is beating up his man), it seems that most post players’ focus is to make a move to beat Perkins and they are so focused on that, they aren’t really thinking about Ibaka coming over for the block.

On this play, Nikola Pekovic gets the ball in the post and makes his move against Perkins.  Pekovic has kinds of trouble even getting a shot up against Perkins, and by the time he does, Ibaka has already been in position to get the weakside block for a few seconds.

Again, Perkins is the man defending on the ball in the post, this time against JaVale McGee.  Again, Perkins is able to beat up the man he is defending as he tries to work in the post.  McGee tries to make his move towards the middle of the court, but Perkins is able to cut that off and force him to spin baseline, right into Ibaka who is coming from the weakside for the block.

This defensive strategy in the post is perfect because it allows both big men to utilize their best assets.  Perkins is incredibly strong and he is able to defend players one-on-one in the post.  Ibaka has tremendous athletic ability and he is at his best when he is playing help defense.  Perkins playing one-on-one with Ibaka ranging over is incredibly tough to stop.

This is going to be especially important considering that Nene and the Nuggets are very good in the post.  Also, he is a good passer out of double teams up top, and with the Thunder able to stop Nene one-on-one, they are taking away one of the Nuggets’ biggest strengths.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Weaknesses

Closing Out On Shooters

It is interesting, the Thunder are very good at stopping the pick and roll, but their commitment to do so actually leads to their weakness, defending shooters that are spotting up.  The Thunder are 15th in the league when it comes to PPP allowed in Spot-Up situations, giving up 0.991 points on every possession on 40% shooting.  The two biggest culprits for the Thunder are Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook.  Both players are in the bottom 30% of the league when it comes to PPP allowed in spot-up situations, allowing 1.06 PPP.  Both players get beat because of their tendency to over help in pick and rolls they are not involved in.  On spot-ups off of pick and rolls, teams are shooting 44.8% on Sefolosha and 48.5% on Westbrook.

On this play, you have the screen coming on one wing with Sefolosha on the other.  The screen is a poor one, but Sefolosha gets caught sinking in anyway.  This opens up the kick out pass and Sefolosha’s man knocks down the three.

This defensive play from Russell Westbrook is almost identical to Sefolosha’s.  Again, it isn’t the greatest screen and the defender (Kevin Durant) actually gets through it untouched.  That doesn’t keep Westbrook from helping, and that opens up the kick out for the made three.

Denver Nuggets – The Numbers*

• Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (17th)
• Opp. TS%: 54.2% (13th)
• Opp. Assist Rate: 20.45 (25th)
• Opp. Turnover Rate: 12.66 (25th)
• Defensive Rebound Rate: 75.43 (5th)
• Block Rate: 4.4 (26th)
• Opp. Free Throw Rate: 29.6 (12th)
• Opp. Three Point Rate: 24.4 (26th)

Denver Nuggets - Strengths

Transition Defense

Just because the Denver Nuggets play at a really fast pace, creating 98 possessions per game (2nd most in the NBA) doesn’t mean they give up transition baskets.  In fact, the Nuggets are the best team in the league when it comes to PPP allowed in transition.  The Nuggets give up just over 1 PPP (1.05 to be exact) and 53.1% in transition (also lowest in the league).  How are the Nuggets able to get stops in transition?  They emphasize getting back on defense instead of going for the offensive rebound (Their ORR of 23.85 – 27th in the league – is proof).  Because they are able to get back, the Nuggets are able to force teams into jumpers rather than allowing them to get to the rim:

Here, the shot on the outside goes up with four Denver Nuggets getting back on defense.  Once the 5th Nugget realizes he is boxed out, he also gets back instead of trying to fight through the screen.  The result is all five Denver Nuggets back inside the three point line, protecting the lane as Earl Watson tries to penetrate.  Watson is forced to take a jumper on the wing, a shot that he misses.

Here is a similar situation, as Kenyon Martin starts to penetrate and goes up for the shot, the rest of the team is getting back on defense.  Martin misses and is now trailing the play, but that is OK because the rest of the team is back protecting the paint.  So when the Mavericks try to attack the rim themselves, they are forced into a miss.

Denver Nuggets - Weaknesses

Fouling In Isolation Situations

Looking at points per possession, the Denver Nuggets are 22nd in the NBA giving up 0.872 PPP on 40% shooting.  Considering that the Thunder have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, things can get messy for the Nuggets in ISO situations.  That being said, Durant and Westbrook going off is expected, so in my opinion the biggest problem would be the other guys in isolation situations.  Specifically, J.R. Smith defending James Harden.  I really think that Smith can go at Harden on the offensive end, but if he is on the court, he has to defend Harden.  We already looked at it, but Harden is very good at drawing fouls.  J.R. Smith on the other hand isn’t very good at not fouling:

Much like Trevor Ariza for the Hornets, Smith can’t really stay on his feet when given a pump fake.  In all of these situations Smith bites on the pump fake, getting caught in hte air, where he is forced to commit the foul.  If Harden does this once or twice to Smith, Smith will find his way to the bench and the Thunder are able to dodge a bullet.

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*All numbers come from the fantastic website Hoopdata.com