First Round Playoff Predictions
I am not a fan of predictions (mostly because I am never right), but I figured that I should have my first round predictions written down in the off chance that I am right, I have proof. Here are my picks for the first round.
Western Conference
San Antonio-Memphis – I mentioned this on Twitter last night and again this morning, but after looking at the defensive numbers, I am so surprised that Memphis tanked to get the Spurs. The Grizzlies are a bad defensive team when it comes to stopping ball handlers coming off of screens and spot-up shooting (25th and 22nd in PPP allowed respectfully). That is the Spurs’ offensive game plan this season. This one could get ugly.
Official prediction - San Antonio in 4
Los Angeles-New Orleans – The Lakers’ defensive strategy is to give up the midrange jumper for the ball handler coming off screens. That is what Chris Paul does the most and what he does the best. I expect him to have a big series (including going for 30+ at least once), but that won’t be enough and the Lakers will take this one.
Official prediction - Los Angeles in 5
Dallas-Portland – Up until I looked at these two team’s offenses in depth, I think I would have picked Portland to win this one. However, Portland’s offense is so poor against the zone (which is really surprising), that I think Dallas will be able to run their zone defense and hide their poor/aging defenders.
Official Prediction - Dallas in 6
Oklahoma City-Denver – I love what Denver has done this season since the trade of Carmelo Anthony, I really do, but I just don’t think the Nuggets will be able to beat Oklahoma City. So much of their offense is designed around Nene drawing double teams (at least the most effective aspects), that with Perkins defending Nene successfully, I think the Thunder take away a lot from Denver
Official Prediction - Oklahoma City in 5
