I am not a fan of predictions (mostly because I am never right), but I figured that I should have my first round predictions written down in the off chance that I am right, I have proof.  Here are my picks for the first round.

Western Conference

San Antonio-Memphis – I mentioned this on Twitter last night and again this morning, but after looking at the defensive numbers, I am so surprised that Memphis tanked to get the Spurs.  The Grizzlies are a bad defensive team when it comes to stopping ball handlers coming off of screens and spot-up shooting (25th and 22nd in PPP allowed respectfully).  That is the Spurs’ offensive game plan this season.  This one could get ugly.

Official prediction - San Antonio in 4

Los Angeles-New Orleans – The Lakers’ defensive strategy is to give up the midrange jumper for the ball handler coming off screens.  That is what Chris Paul does the most and what he does the best.  I expect him to have a big series (including going for 30+ at least once), but that won’t be enough and the Lakers will take this one.

Official prediction - Los Angeles in 5

Dallas-Portland – Up until I looked at these two team’s offenses in depth, I think I would have picked Portland to win this one.  However, Portland’s offense is so poor against the zone (which is really surprising), that I think Dallas will be able to run their zone defense and hide their poor/aging defenders.

Official Prediction - Dallas in 6

Oklahoma City-Denver – I love what Denver has done this season since the trade of Carmelo Anthony, I really do, but I just don’t think the Nuggets will be able to beat Oklahoma City.  So much of their offense is designed around Nene drawing double teams (at least the most effective aspects), that with Perkins defending Nene successfully, I think the Thunder take away a lot from Denver

Official Prediction - Oklahoma City in 5

Eastern Conference

Chicago-Indiana – If Darren Collison plays the majority of the minutes at PG for Indiana, Derrick Rose may average 30 a game in this series.  Add that to the Bulls’ defense and this one will be over quick.

Official Prediction - Chicago in 4

Miami-Philadelphia – I think against any other team, Philadelphia would have been a major upset threat, but the Heat match-up so well against them that Philly won’t be able to use their strengths to the best of their ability.  Thaddeus Young could go off though.

Official Prediction - Miami in 4

Boston-New York – Two things makes me think this is going to be a quick series.  Boston has one of the best pick and roll and isolation defenses in the league.  That is what New York thrives on.  Amar’e and Carmelo may get their points, but it is going to take a lot of work.  Meanwhile, Garnett might have a big series if Stoudemire is defending him for a bulk of the minutes.

Official Prediction - Boston in 4

Orlando-Atlanta – The Jason Collins factor has been much talked about and I think that (in addition to Kirk Hinrich now being on the time) will keep Atlanta from getting swept.  I think that Atlanta will win their two home games, but that is it.

Official Prediction - Orlando in 6