In each of the previews that I have done for a Dallas Mavericks’ series, I looked at the Mavericks’ zone and how their opposition might attack it.  Despite playing only half as much zone as they did in the regular season (10.5% of all possessions vs. 5.2% of all possessions – 45 total – in the playoffs), I am going to be looking at the Mavericks’ zone yet again.

The reason why I am doing so is because I think the zone will be vital this series.  The reason is because in the three matchups against the Thunder, the Mavericks ran a lot of zone, and had a lot of success with it.  Out of the 268 total halfcourt possessions that the Thunder had, the Mavericks played zone 12.7% of the time, or 34 possessions in total (up from their season average of 10.5%, which was the most zone any team played by far).  Out of those 34 possessions, the Thunder scored on just 10 of them, or just 29.4% of the time (compared to scoring on 45.7% of possessions vs. Dallas’ man to man defense.  It is pretty obvious that the Mavericks are going to have to play zone, and that the Thunder’s success offensively in this series comes down to how they do against the zone.

When Oklahoma City attacked Dallas’ zone they had one set that they used, and in fact, it is pretty similar to Dallas’ zone offense with one major exception, player movement.  Much like Dallas, Oklahoma City ran a 4 out 1 in style of zone offense, but instead of the type of movement like Dallas got, the Thunder players usually hang around the perimeter and stand there.  The only player that seems to be working and moving is Serge Ibaka, the middle man, moving with the basketball and working to get open.  When the Thunder let Ibaka work, their offense can hace success:

Look at how hard Serge Ibaka works on this possession.  He’s following the basketball, working the gaps, screening the top of the zone (something the Thunder like to do), and eventually with good ball movement and good cutting by Ibaka, the Thunder are able to get a dunk.

The problem is that the Thunder don’t let Ibaka work enough, meaning they like to settle for shots against the zone or try to work one on one instead of moving the ball around and letting Ibaka find the gaps:

All of these shots or drives are coming quick, off of just one or two passes, instead of working the defense.  Penetrating against a zone is a great thing to do, but only after three to five passes since that is when you start to get the zone rotating and there are gaps.  If you penetrate off of one pass, the defense is still in their basic zone areas, and they are able to load up against the penetration.

Another thing about working the basketball around and getting the zone moving is that it makes it easier to grab offensive rebounds.  If the zone is working hard, trying to rotate with the basketball for 3 or more passes, when the shot goes up, it will be extremely difficult to find a man to box out.  However, if you take a quick shot off of 1 or 2 passes, the zone is still in their basic shape, they still know where everybody is and it is much easier to box out and secure the defensive rebound.

In addition, settling for jumpers also lets the defense off of the hook where there are mismatches to be taken advantage of:

In both of these clips, Serge Ibaka has a guard defending him due to zone rotations.  Both times, Ibaka watches as his teammates ignore him, failing to get him the basketball.  The big thing with the type of zone that Dallas has is that there will be mismatches every once in a while (due to the match-up style zone that it is).  Once you get that mismatch, as a offense, you need to quickly take advantage, not settle for jumpers.

So what works for Oklahoma City?  Well, in addition to letting the middle man, mostly Serge Ibaka, work and find the gaps in the zone, they like to have their middle man screen one of the top zone defenders.  This is a strategy a lot of teams use against the zone and it can be really effective:

Here, Jeff Green sets a screen for Eric Maynor who uses it to get into the paint.  Once he gets into the paint, the zone collapses on him, freeing up Green for the lob on the roll (in my opinion screening the top of the zone and driving is different than driving off of the ISO because there is a roll man who is always a threat if the zone collapses on the ball handler).  The middle of the zone is the underbelly, and if you can get the basketball there, either with the dribble or with the pass, you can almost guarantee that you are going to get a good look as a result.

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That last play featuring Jeff Green brings up an interesting point, who is going to play against the zone?  Jeff Green and Serge Ibaka seemed to split the middle man duties when Green was there (allowing the other big Nick Collison/Nenad Krstic work the baseline), but with Green gone, Ibaka is the only one who is going to be able to play that middle spot effectively.  This is because he has the athletic ability to work off of the ball, catch lobs off the roll and he is at least a threat to knock down a jumper.  I don’t know if Collison or Perkins can do that.  As silly as it may sound, because it was a great trade for Oklahoma City, but the Green/Krstic deal for Kendrick Perkins may very well hurt them in this series when Dallas decides to play zone.

If Dallas’ zone ends up playing a large role in this series (which I think it will), I think that is enough to push Dallas through to the finals.  Mavs in 6.