Last year, we took a look at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas.  With Ricky Rubio’s announcement that he is joining the Minnesota Timberwolves and coming to the NBA this upcoming season, I thought it was a perfect time to start up the overseas scouting report again.

Ricky Rubio is the much talked about 20 year old, drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves two seasons ago when he was 18 years old.  Despite his stock being very high when he was drafted, a combination of a buyout and his lack of excitement about the Timberwolves resulted in Rubio staying in Spain (but switching teams) for the past two seasons.  During that time, Rubio’s stock has taken a pretty big hit, mainly because of his “play” with Regal Barcelona.

Before we get started with the scouting report, I do want to discuss the drop in Rubio’s assists and everybody’s reaction to it.  With Rubio being more of a true point guard than a scoring point guard, everyone seems to be pointing at the drop in assists/40 minutes from his final season with DKV Joventut to this past season with Regal Barcelona and it causes Rubio’s critics to say, “Obviously, this is a sign Rubio is getting worse.  He peaked at 18!”  However, if you look at how Rubio is used, instead of looking at just the numbers, you notice there were other reasons for his his drop in assists:

Note:  This numbers are coming from Rubio’s ACB play over the past three seasons.  2008-2009 with DKV Joventut and 2009-2011 with Regal Barcelona

With DKV Joventut, Rubio was the primary ball handler and the result was a high number of assists/40 minutes (in Europe if the player who receives the pass takes a dribble, an assist isn’t given so assists are generally lower overseas).  One he joined Regal Barcelona, he started getting used off of the ball more with, Rubio’s % of spot-up possessions jumper nearly 10 percent, leading his assists/40 to drop.  This past season, Rubio was used off of the basketball even more (31.80% of all possessions labeled as spot ups) and his assists/40 dropped more as well.

There is a definite correlation between how much Rubio is used off of the basketball (spot-up possessions are a good indicator of this) and his assists/40 in that the more he is used off of the ball the less assists he gets.  That makes sense because you need the basketball in your hands to create opportunities for others.  Could Rubio be playing worse?  Maybe, but to just point at Rubio’s numbers without context as your proof is doing it wrong.  OK, now to the strengths an weaknesses.

Strengths

Pick And Roll Playmaker

Obviously being a playmaker and creating opportunities for his teammates is one of Rubio’s biggest strengths and it really stands out in the pick and roll.  Of all the ball screens used by Rubio, he makes the pass to his teammate 57.5% of the time, resulting in a PPP of 1.090 (which lands him in the top 40% of all international players) on 45.3% shooting.  When Rubio comes off of the screen, he does a tremendous job of reading the defense and making the correct pass:

Here, Rubio comes off of the ball screen as the man defending the screener hedges towards him.  The third defender in the paint on the pick and roll is a little late getting to the roll man, Rubio is able to recognize that delay and hit the roll man for the easy finish.

On this particular play, Rubio comes off of the screen and starts to attack the rim.  This forces the defender from the short corner to drop down.  As soon as that happens, Rubio picks up his dribble and quickly kicks it out to the corner (with a pass that looks simple but is actually pretty difficult throwing it around the defender).  Rubio’s teammate is able to pull up for the three, knocking it down before his defender can close out on him.

Rubio also does a good job of hitting cutters off of the ball as he comes off screens.  Rubio is always keeping his head up and is always looking for an open teammate, so when a defender loses sight of his man allowing a cut to the rim, Rubio is usually able to find him.  In addition, his ball handling ability allows him to explore and probe the defense, waiting for a teammate to come open (which is what happens on during the second clip after a double behind the back crossover).

Defense

When you talk about Rubio on the defensive end, the first thing that always seems to get brought up is his ability to get steals off of the basketball, and rightfully so.  Over the course of 70 games with Regal Barcelona this past season, Rubio racked up 106 steals, with most of them coming off of the ball.  Maybe it is because of his point guard tendencies, but Rubio is very good when it comes to understanding help responsibilities, and using these help responsibilities to put himself in a position to come away with steals:

Here, Rubio gets himself in help position as dribble penetration takes place on the opposite side of the court.  Once the ball handler commits himself to the air, Rubio turns to the ball and is ready to make a read on the pass, making the steal.

Rubio isn’t just a ball hawk though, as the numbers show he is a very good on the ball defender as well.  Teams have tried to use pick and rolls to get an advantage on Rubio, running him off of ball screens 48.9% of the time, but Rubio has done a good job defending off of screens.  Rubio’s opponents coming off of ball screens shoot 36.9% from the field while posting a PPP of just 0.683 (top 31 percentile) while forcing turnovers 25.4% of the time:

Maybe it is the team strategy, but Rubio doesn’t allow himself to get stuck on ball screens.  He does a fantastic job of slipping off of them while fighting over the screens, allowing him to stay with the ball handler.  In the first clip, that allows him to contest the jumper off of the dribble.  In the second clip, this allows Rubio to stay on the ball handlers hip as he attacks the rim, so when he tries to pass it out, Rubio is able to get his hands on the basketball.

In isolation situations, Rubio is an even better defender, holding opponents to a PPP of 0.634 on 29.6% shooting:

In this clip, you see Rubio’s ability to stay in front of his man, taking away his first option, and forcing him to a spot on the court where the offensive player doesn’t want to go to.  The result is a missed lay-up from the left side, shot with the right hand.

Weaknesses

Scoring Ability

The biggest problem that Ricky Rubio is going to have when he makes the transition to the NBA game is the lack of scoring ability, especially his poor shooting ability.  Rubio can knock down an open shot, hitting 40.5% of unguarded catch and shoot jumpers, but in just about any other situation, he struggles with his shot.  When he is guarded, Rubio shoots just 18.5% and when he is shooting off of the dribble, he is shooting just 23.5%.

This inability to knock down shots off of the dribble will really hurt his pick and roll game in the pros.  If Rubio can’t knock down a jumper (or at least be a threat to) coming off of a ball screen, teams will simply go under them, making it tough for Rubio to use his playmaking skills to create for his teammates.  When Rubio settles for a jumper in pick and roll situations (which happens 54.4% of the time when he is looking to score off of ball screens), Rubio is shooting 20%:

When watching these shots, the biggest thing you want to concentrate on is Rubio’s lower body.  Maybe the most fundamental-related problem with Rubio’s shot is that he has a very inconsistant lower body.  On every single shot off of the dribble here, Rubio is doing something different with his lower body.  Jumping high and out, not jumping high and going straight up and down, jumping high and straight up and down, not jumping high and out.

With a shooter, you want to do the same thing every single time.  That’s what makes guys like Ray Allen so successful, the jump the same height the same way every time.  When you do the same thing with your lower body every time, when you miss a shot, you know it doesn’t have anything to do with how high you jumped or if you jumped straight up and down.  It’s something with the arms, and it makes it easier to adjust.  When you aren’t consistant with the lower body off of the dribble and you miss, you don’t know what to adjust in game on the fly.

Watch Rubio on open catch and shoot jumpers:

Rubio is more of a set shooter, and he looks extremely comfortable when shooting his set shot.  So why doesn’t he do that off of the dribble?  Because of all the variations.  In catch and shoot situations, Rubio was standing still, making the catch, and firing.  When you are shooting off the dribble, you are doing so at different speeds and from different angles.  Also when shooting off of the dribble, it is hard to go to your set shot, and you need take an actual jump shot.  It can be corrected, but Rubio has to find a lower body routine shooting off of the dribble that he is comfortable with and something that he can repeat over and over.

Even when Rubio tries to attack the rim, he struggles.  When Rubbio takes it to the basket in pick and roll situations he is shooting just 24.1% (in fact, overall when taking shots around the basket, Rubio is shooting just 38.4% and just 20% on runners):

At the rim, Rubio’s biggest problem is that he plays below the rim.  This allows defense to contest his lay-up attempts, bother him, and force him into misses.

Post Defense

Maybe the most surprising thing when going through Rubio’s tape is that teams didn’t try to post him up.  He was only posted up 12 times (resulting in 13 points) in 70 games, and all of them came off of switches:

Even though these situations don’t show you too much, it does tell us that Rubio has a tendency to shy away from contact in the post.  Most times when a guard gets switched on a big, they try with all of their might to push the big out of the way, there isn’t that same type of fight.  Maybe in Europe point guards don’t post up, but in the NBA there are guys like Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, and Andre Miller who will try to abuse Rubio on the block.  Rubio is going to have to learn how to be physical without fouling when put in these situations.

Conclusion

The thing that everyone needs to remember is that when we were hearing about Rubio years ago, he was just 18, meaning that he is only 20 years old now.  Some of his biggest weaknesses, like shooting form and strength, are things he can develop as he ages.

Is Rubio going to be an all-star right off of the bat?  No.  However, he is going to have a productive season in Minnesota, and if he can be at least a threat scoring off of screens, that Love/Rubio pick and pop is going to be deadly.