For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands.  With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.

Past Editions: Kyrie Irving (#1) | Derrick Williams (#2) | Tristan Thompson (#4) | Jan Vesely (#6) | Bismack Biyombo (#7)

As I mentioned when looking at Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valanciunas to the Cavs was looking like a lock, but as we got closer to draft night, it was getting more and more up in the air, partially due to Valanciunas’ buy-out forcing him to stay overseas for a year and partially due to how impressed they were with Thompson’s workouts.  As we all know, the Cavs took Thompson allowing Jonas Valanciunas to fall in the Raptors, who need a true center, lap.

Strengths

Off Ball Offense

Valanciunas’ biggest strength offensively is when he is working off of the basketball cutting and in pick and roll sets, and his international team, Lietuvos Rytas was smart enough to build Valanciunas’ offense around that, as 43.3% of his offense was either cuts or pick and rolls (if you want to add offensive rebounds, off ball offense makes up 65.1% of Valanciunas’ offense).

As the roll man in pick and roll sets (23.2% of all offensive possessions) Valanciunas posted a PPP of 1.434, which puts him in the top 4% of all international players as he shot 74.7%.  Valanciunas rolled to the rim 97% of the time in pick and roll sets (slipping the screen the remaining 3%), showing his ability to find lanes when rolling to the rim, making the catch, and getting the ball on the rim:

Valanciunas doesn’t set the best screens and that probably needs to be improved upon (though we have seen guys like David Lee, David West, and Amar’e Stoudemire have success without setting the best screens), but when he is rolling to the rim he does just about everything right.  He makes himself available and once he makes the catch, he is going right up with it and has the ability to finish over the help defender (something we also saw during the u19 tournament).

Speaking of Valanciunas’ ability to find lanes and make himself available, that is what makes him so successful “cutting” off of the basketball.  According to Synergy Sports, Valanciunas posts a PPP of 1.488 (top 10%) while shooting 69.8% on cut plays:

One of the reasons why Valanciunas is so good on cuts is because he understands spacing.  On this particular clip, you see Valanciunas’ teammate driving right at him.  Instead of holding his ground, Valanciunas slips back to the opposite block, as as his defender helps on penetration, he now has given his teammate a passing lane and put himself in a position to catch and score at the same time.

It’s these types fundamentals and Valanciunas’ understanding of them that helps him score off of offensive rebounds and have success on put backs as well.  Valanciunas was in the top 25% of all international players in terms of PPP on offensive rebounds, posting a PPP of 1.301 on 64.7% shooting:

What is so impressive about Valanciunas when working the offensive boards is his ability to keep the basketball up.  Whenever Valanciunas grabs an offensive rebound and he has a chance to score on a putback, he keeps the ball high and goes right back up with it, limiting the chance opponents have to block it.  This is something that guys in the NBA struggle with at times, so to see a 19 year old do it just about every single time, that is impressive.

Help/PNR Defense

Jonas Valanciunas had 68 blocks in 44 games with Lietuvos Rytas last season, and most of those came from the weakside or when Valanciunas was playing help defense:

Valanciunas just has a good understanding of when to come help and when to stay home, and when he does help, he isn’t committing 100% which allows him to recover back to his man if the pass is made instead of the shot.  Another important thing is that you don’t see Valanciunas swinging widely at the basketball, picking up fouls from the weakside.  In 44 games, Valanciunas was whistled for just 107 fouls, or about 2.4 fouls per game.  He won’t pick up those cheap fouls because he is arriving with the help late.

Weaknesses

Post Offense

As good as Valanciunas is off of the basketball, that is almost as bad he is with the ball in his hands.  On the block, Valancinuas posted just a PPP of 0.826, scoring 57 points on his 69 post up possessions.  One of the biggest reasons why Valanciunas struggles so much is turnovers, as he turns the ball over 29% when posting up:

Something that Valanciunas needs to work on next year is his body.  He needs to fill out a little bit more and that would help him both when fighting for position and when trying to back down his defender.  One of the things that I noticed is that Valanciunas can’t really back his man down after making the catch, and this causes Valanciunas to swing an arm out and get offensive fouls called on him.  In addition, Valanciunas really struggles when passing out of double teams. He is there using all of his energy to back his defender down and a when they send a double at him, it catches him off guard.

Post Defense

Valanciunas’ lack of size also hurts him on the ball defensively.  On the 81 post up possessions that Valanciunas faced last year, he gave up 84 points, which puts him in the bottom 20% among all international players:

Again, in my opinion, it’s all about strength and position.  At this point in his career, Valanciunas doesn’t have the strength to push his man off of his spots, and if they do catch it off of the block, they can simply back him down into the paint.  No matter how good of a defender or how long you are, if you allow your man to get into your body and all the way into the paint, they are going to have an easy time and not be bothered by size.  Again, there isn’t really anything strategically that you can do or change, it’s simply all about getting stronger.

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In my opinion, Jonas Valanciunas is a perfect fit for the Toronto Raptors and they should be very happy that he fell to him at #5.  Especially considering the new coach, Dwane Casey, has experience working with a player who has Valanciunas’ skills.  Tyson Chandler compares pretty favorably with Valanciunas in my opinion, and considering that Casey used Chandler to anchor a championship winning defense, that’s a good thing.

The one concern that I do have with Valanciunas is his body.  However, he’s only 19 so he should continue to develop and playing another season against grown men in the Euroleague (His team is in the qualifying rounds of the Euroleague) will help in that department as well.  He should make an immediate impact when he comes over in another year.