During his press conference where he announced that he was finally firing Kurt Rambis, David Kahn talked about when he started his search for a new coach (because he didn’t start it yet) he was going to look for a coach who was better suited for an uptempo style.  The whole thing sounded as if Kahn had one man in mind.  Sure enough, a few days later Don Nelson chimed in (From The Mercury News):

Nelson would gladly trade those breezy Hawaiian trade winds for Minnesota winters and the chance to coach again.

“It’d be a great fit,” Nelson said. “I love Minnesota.”

…

Nelson and Kahn talked for about 40 minutes by phone last week and plan to talk again this week.

“They have an opening,” Nelson said, “and I don’t have a job.”

Nelson has a reputation as a coach who is tough on rookies and young players.

“Yeah, I don’t like rookies that can’t play,” he said. “Rookies that can play, I play ‘em a lot.

“There’s talent there. Maybe they just need to change the tempo and play a little faster there.”

Don Nelson and the Minnesota Timberwolves, a match that only makes sense in David Kahn and Don Nelson’s head.  However, since these are the people making the decision, it is almost an inevitable that this is going to happen.  When it does, there is no doubt in my mind that Nelson is going to bring his insane uptempo offense.  The question to ask is, does Nelson have the pieces to make it work?  Maybe better, can the players in Minnesota play well in Minnesota’s style.

Our first instinct is to say no, especially considering that they had the fastest pace in the league (96.5 possessions per game, according to Basketball Reference), but only posted the 24th highest offensive rating(104.2 points per 100 possessions).  However, looking at the numbers, the Timberwolves didn’t actually get out in transition as much as you would original believe.  According to Synergy Sports, transition possessions made up 10.7% of Minnesota’s offense, a number that was good for 23rd in the NBA.  So how was their pace so high?  Bad shots early in the clock and turnovers.

Nelson on the other hand ran a true run and gun team in Golden State.  During his final season with the Warriors, Nelson had his team posting a pace of 100.4 (which was obviously 1st in the NBA that season.  17.8% of the Warriors’ possessions were transition possessions (posting a PPP of 1.13, good for 18th in the NBA).  So if Nelson does come to Minnesota, their style of play would definitely be different in that they would be running more.

This doesn’t mean that Minnesota was a good running team this past season, far from it, posting a PPP of 1.1006, good for 28th in the NBA.  However, bringing in new pieces in Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams, I thought it would be interesting to break down the Timberwolves roster and see if a transition offense would really work in Minnesota:

The Good

Ricky Rubio

Even though Rubio struggled when looking for his own offense in transition last season (1.0 PPP in transition, bottom 22% among international players – though 2 years ago, Rubio even had success creating for himself, posting a PPP of 1.31), when creating for others in transition Rubio was incredibly successful, posting an Assit to Turnover ratio of 4.5 in transition:

Rubio’s strengths in transition is that he is always a willing passer and he always has his head up when running.  When pushing the ball in transition, Rubio likes get the ball in the middle of the court and attack, putting pressure on the defense, forcing the defense to collapse and allowing the wings and trailers to fill in and get open.  Whether it is a pass to the rim or out at the three point line, Rubio does a very good job of spotting the open man and getting the ball to him, creating open opportunities for his teammates.  With the type of athletic wings that Rubio will have in Minnesota, he could have a lot of success creating in transition playing under Don Nelson.

Derrick Williams

Like Rubio, Derrick Williams is a new addition to the Timberwolves’ roster, one that fits into Kahn’s desire to play an uptempo style (Transition made up 10.1% of Williams offense at Arizona).  At Arizona, Williams was most successful running the court up the middle and filling in the lane along the left wing.

Up the middle, Williams posted a PPP of 1.786, which was good to put him in the top 6% of all division 1 college players.  Williams’ mobility and ability to beat his man down the court really helped him here:

When Williams is running the court down the middle, he does a very good job of being aware of the basketball and being aware of spacing.  He always seems to put himself in a position where he is in an open spot and makes himself available for the pass.

Filling the lane along the left wing, Williams posts a PPP of 1.333, which is puts him in the top twenty percent among all division 1 college players:

Again, Williams is using his athletic ability here to get in good spots and fill the lane well, allowing him to get the ball and get it at the rim right away.  Imagine Williams in transition with a player like Rubio.

Kevin Love

When you think of Kevin Love in transition, you probably think of the fantastic outlet passes that he throws.  While those will probably be very effective in a Don Nelson up-tempo system, that isn’t why I have him included here.  Love can also be successful in transition when looking to score, particularly when trailing the play.  In transition, Love scored 168 points while using just 112 possessions, posting a PPP of 1.49, good to put him in the top 5% of the NBA.  Of those transition possessions, 45.5% of them came when love was trailing the play:

Love’s biggest asset in transition is his shooting ability and his ability to knock down the open three point shot.  Since Love is usually the guy grabbing the rebound or inbounding the basketball he is usually the man trailing the play.  With the Timberwolves looking to push it in transition, the defense tends to get sucked in and all the attention is paid to the ball handler, leaving Love wide open behind the three point line at the top of the key.  With the Timberwolves looking to run more in a Don Nelson style offense, he is going to get even more open looks behind the three point line.

Wes Johnson

Like Derrick Williams, Wes Johnson is an athletic guy who likes to fill the wings in transition, though he had mixed results his rookie season.  When filling in along the right wing, Johnson had a lot of success, posting a 1.370 PPP on 57.7% shooting.  When filling in along the left wing, Johnson struggled, posting a PPP of 1.035 (bottom 30%) on 44.2% shooting.  When you take a minute to look at it, the gap in success makes sense.  Johnson is much more comfortable with his handle on the right side, and that leads to him attacking the rim more when filling in transition on the right wing.  On the left wing?  Johnson settles for far too many jumpers:

When Wes Johnson is attacking the rim, he can be a very good finisher in transition.  He has the athletic ability to get to the rim easily and finish over defenders.  However, Johnson’s problem is when he starts settling for jumpers, which is what he tends to do on the left wing.  If he can learn to attack the rim from both sides, Don Nelson has another attacking wing to run alongside Rubio.

Martell Webster

The final player who looks comfortable in transition on this Timberwolves roster is Martell Webster.  While guys like Williams and Johnson are at their best when they are attacking the rim and filling the lanes in transition, Webster has success spotting up on the outside:

Like Kevin Love, Webster is able to take advantage of the defense sucking into the ball handler, however unlike Love, Webster isn’t trailing the play, instead filling in behind his teammates that cut to the rim. I think that if Don Nelson gets hired, Martell Webster will quickly become one of his favorite guys that get a ton of playing time.  If you look at that 2009-2010 roster, Nelson had a bunch of guys who can spot up behind the three point line in transition and knock down open shots.  Webster is the only guy like that (outside of Kevin Love) on the roster who you don’t cringe at when you see him pulling up for an outside shot in transition, and that skill will help him in a Don Nelson style system.

The Bad

Luke Ridnour

Ridnour’s biggest problem in transition is that he too often looks for his own when he is the ball handler.  Unlike Rubio, who is thinking pass first and looking to get everyone involved on the break, Ridnour’s a shoot first, pass second kind of guy and this leads to some poor shot selection:

When Ridnour is hitting, his tendency to pull up for threes off of the dribble in transition is great.  However, he is far too inconsistant to truly be an effective transition player, even under a Don Nelson uptempo style that tends to allow it.  Despite having guys like Curry and Ellis in Golden State who were shoot first guys, I think Nelson would favor a pass first guy like Rubio over a shot first guy like Ridnour, simply because Ridnour isn’t effective enough for it to make sense.

The Ugly

Michael Beasley

It’s strange to see a guy like Beasley, who is really athletic and is at least a threat to knock down a jumper to be so miserable in transition, but the numbers and the game tape don’t lie.  The biggest problem for Beasley, who posted a PPP of 0.85 in transition last season (a number that put him in the bottom 8% among all NBA players), is turnovers as Beasley turned the ball over 19.6% of the time when in transition:

Beasley’s biggest problem is that he just doesn’t have a high basketball IQ and he makes poor decisions in transition.  He recognizes situations and the defense too late and that leads to deflections and steals.  Also, Beasley tends to have a little too much confidence in his ball handling skills and that gets him into trouble as well.

Anthony Randolph

Like Beasley, it’s strange to see a guy like Randolph in the “Bad” section of this post.  Again, the numbers and tape don’t lie.  Randolph is basically a more extreme version of Beasley, as he posts an identical PPP as Beasley in transition (0.85, bottom 8%).  What really makes him frustrating is that he is a much better shooter in transition (hitting on 63% of his shots), but he also turns the basketball over much, much more (30% of his transition possessions result in turnovers):

Again, like Beasley, Randolph has a little bit too much confidence in his ball handling ability.  The problem with Randolph’s dribble is that he is so tall and long and that causes every bounce to take up a lot of time, this makes it harder for him to change directions, make moves, or get around guys.  Also, Randolph has a tendency to throw one-handed bounce passes off of the dribble, leading to turnovers.

—

When you look at guys like Rubio, Williams, Love, Johnson (when he is attacking the rim), and Webster you start to think, “Hey, Don Nelson’s transition offense and the Minnesota Timberwolves could be a pretty good match.”  However, when you look at the rest of the roster (and the fact that nobody is really good at defense on this team) and you start to think “Yeah, maybe not.”  In my opinion, Nelson coaching the Timberwolves will be a great success or a colossal failure.  There is no middle ground.