Over the past month, the 24 teams involved in EuroBasket have been preparing for August 31st and the start of the competition that decides what teams from Europe qualify for the Olympics next year (top 2 get automatic bids and 3rd-through 6th advance to a pre-Olympic qualifying tournament).  Over here at NBAPlaybook, we have been preparing too, looking at some interesting sets from some of the contenders.  I’ve been lucky enough to have caught at least one game of each team participating.  Because of that, I thought it would be fun to make some predictions.  If you click the header of the initial groups, you will be brought to a group preview done by The Painted Area (before we continue, here is their EuroBasket overview, go check it out because The Painted Area is one of the best sites around when it comes to international basketball  - heck, go check out their FIBA Americas preview).  If the individual name of the team is clickable, you will be brought to an offensive scout that I have done.  So no other delays, here are my predictions for EuroBasket 2011:

First Round Group Play

Each team will play other group-mates once, with the top three teams advancing to the second round of group play

Group A

1. Spain
2. Lithuania
3. Turkey
4. Poland
5. Great Britain
6. Portugal

In my opinion, Group A is probably the toughest group out there with two title favorites in Spain and Lithuania and a very good Turkish team that are starting to get their act together a little bit.  Poland is also a very good team, but I don’t think they are good enough to beat Turkey, and because I think the winner of the Turkey-Poland matchup on September 4th takes the 3rd spot, I have Turkey advancing.  Great Britain avoids the dreaded 6th spot because Portugal will go winless in this group.

Group B

1. France
2. Germany
3. Italy
4. Serbia
5. Israel
6. Latvia

France and Germany, who are both playing very well entering the tournament, are definites here in group B, so again we are left with a tough decision for the third spot as Italy and Serbia are neck and neck here.  So once again, we are left to a match-up between the contenders for the 3rd spot deciding who advances.  What’s interesting about this is these two teams (Italy and Serbia) open up the tournament tomorrow morning and are the first game.  I think Italy takes it, and that’s why I have them at the 3 spot.

Group C

1. Greece
2. Croatia
3. Montenegro
4. Bosnia and Herzegovina
5. Macedonia
6. Finland

This might be the only group where there is a significant gap, at least in my opinion, between the top three teams and the bottom three teams.  If Bosnia and Herzogovina can pull off at least two upsets they might be able to advance, but I don’t see that happening.  While the order might be different than what you see here, these will more than likely be your top three advancing teams.

Group D

1. Russia
2. Slovenia
3. Ukraine
4. Georgia
5. Bulgaria
6. Belgium

Much like group B, in my mind, the top 2 teams here are pretty definite.  Russia has a lot of really good players on both side of the basketball, and I don’t expect them to struggle at all in group play.  Slovenia is the next best team and shouldn’t have a problem advancing as well.  The third and final spot for the 2nd group play round in my mind goes to Ukraine.  As a real big fan of Mike Fratello, I might be playing favorites here, but I think Steven Burtt (who has the Rucker Park scoring record) is good enough to get them into the second round of group play.

Second Round Group Play

After the first round of group play, the top three teams from each group advance and the 12 teams break up into two groups of six, with the teams from A and B forming group E and the teams from C and D forming group F.  There are three games played in this group, with each team playing the three teams they didn’t play in the first round of group play.  4 out of 6 teams advance to the quarter finals.

Group E

1. Spain
2. France
3. Lithuania
4. Germany
5. Turkey
6. Italy

This group is pretty cut and dry when it comes to the top 4 and the bottom 2.  Turkey has been known to “flip the switch” but I just think that Hedo Turkoglu doesn’t have that switch anymore or at the very least he can’t find it.  He is involved in a lot of Turkey’s offense, so I think their run ends here.  Italy is the same situation, except they lean on their three NBAers.  Don’t think it will be enough or that they will play enough defense to get through the likes of Spain, Lithuania, and Turkey.

Group F

1. Greece
2. Russia
3. Slovenia
4. Croatia
5. Montenegro
6. Ukraine

The winner of the Greece vs. Russia game which takes place in group F will probably determine the group winner in my opinion.  Going simply on gut feeling, I have Greece winning that game, which means that I have them at the top of the group.  The next three teams should be very straight forward, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Montenegro sneaks their way into the quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals

Based on my rankings in the second round of group play, these are the match-ups for the quarterfinals.

Spain vs. Croatia

20% of Spain’s offense comes from transition.  That’s a ridiculous number, and a lot of it comes from their defense.  Spain is great at ratcheting up the pressure and forcing teams into turnovers.  That will help them advance into the semifinals.

Russia vs. Lithuania

I definitely think that these teams are about as even as you can be.  Despite having weaker ball handlers, I am going to have to give Lithuania the edge here, mainly because they are the host team and I think the amazing home court advantage will give them the edge.

Greece vs. Germany

Looking at the roster of these two teams, I am going to have to give Germany the edge.  You have a very good front court in Dirk and Chris Kaman (though don’t forget about Tibor Pleiss), and I think that is enough to advance them to the semis.

France vs. Slovenia

Despite getting crushed by Spain early in their preparation schedule, I’m really high on France right now and I think their motion based offense will get them past Slovenia.

Semifinals

Spain vs. Lithuania

I know Lithuania beat Spain at home, and Lithuania’s pick and roll offense picked apart Spain’s soft hedges.  I just think that Spain’s ball pressure combined with Lithuania’s weak ball handlers will lead to a track meet that Spain wins.

Germany vs. France

Dirk and Kaman are not enough to get by France who has a pretty well balanced team and they will use that to advance.

Finals

Spain vs. France

While it won’t be the blowout that we saw a few weeks ago, I still think Spain wins this one pretty easily, 10-12 point margin.

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So there you have it, Spain wins the tournament.  You don’t even have to watch it now (you still should watch it).  If there is a pick I feel that I will get wrong, it is leaving Serbia out and eliminating them in the first round of group play.  They have one of the best coaches around and their core has been playing together for years, but I’m following my gut there.

Whether I’m right or wrong, I will be covering EuroBasket (and FIBA Americas to some extent) just like I covered the playoffs.  Posts and breakdowns every single day.  So stay tuned.