We have reached the quarterfinals of EuroBasket 2011 with the final eight teams matching up over the next two days as these teams continue to fight for the two guaranteed Olympic bids.  In regards to the Olympics, these quarterfinals are extremely important because a loss in this round and a loss in the subsequent consolation game means that you are out of the 2012 Olympics.   There are already a lot of great preview posts out there (Seriously, go check out The Painted Area, In The Game, and Euroleague Adventures), so I thought it would be interesting to look at a key match-up for each quarterfinal game.

In maybe the most interesting match-up of the quarterfinals, host nation Lithuania takes on surprising quarterfinalist Macedonia.  Macedonia was able to make the quarterfinals by pairing a Bo McCalebb-powered offense with a very good defense.  According to In The Game, Macedonia allowed just 65 points per 70 possessions, which was the third best among the 24 EuroBasket teams.  However, there is one area where Macedonia tends to struggle on the defensive end, and that is when it comes to defending a ball handler in pick and roll situations.  Normally, this would be a problem, but something that can be worked around.  Against Lithuania, this is a huge problem.

Lithuania, who at times look like championship contenders and at times look like they could be eliminated at any moment, relies heavily on the pick and roll to help their offense and allow their ball handlers to create for themselves and others.  Out of the 561 halfcourt possessions that Lithuania has run during EuroBasket, they have ran a pick and roll where the ball handler or roll man ended the possession (FGA, Turnover, or Foul) 178 times, or 31.7%.  Essentially, Lithuania is running a pick and roll 1 in every 3 halfcourt possessions.  When they are having success with it, they are doing things like beating Serbia by 10 while scoring 100 points.  When they are struggling with the pick and roll while going up against a good defense, they are losing and scoring just 67 points (which is what happened when they faced France).

So what’s wrong with Macedonia’s defense when trying to stop ball handlers coming off of screens?  They tend to hedge softly and give way too much space (and we have seen what Lithuania can do with that space):

The two clips above are pretty indicative of how Macedonia defends the pick and roll.  They seem to be way too concerned with letting the roll man go free, even when he is popping out instead of rolling to the rim, that they don’t hedge out hard on the ball handler.  So while this means the roll man doesn’t get a lot of clean looks, if a ball handler comes off the screen and wants to take the jumper, he is going to have the space to do so.

If Macedonia comes out and plays Lithuania’s pick and roll the same way that they have been, expect to see Lithuania moving on (though I think that Bo McCalebb will keep Macedonia close throughout), with Lithuania’s guards having a big day as they come off ball screens and get open jumper after open jumper.