We have reached the quarterfinals of EuroBasket 2011 with the final eight teams matching up over the next two days as these teams continue to fight for the two guaranteed Olympic bids.  In regards to the Olympics, these quarterfinals are extremely important because a loss in this round and a loss in the subsequent consolation game means that you are out of the 2012 Olympics.   There are already a lot of great preview posts out there (Seriously, go check out The Painted Area, In The Game, and Euroleague Adventures), so I thought it would be interesting to look at a key match-up for each quarterfinal game.

On paper, this match-up between Spain and Slovenia is probably the biggest mismatch.  On offense, Slovenia, especially Goran Dragic, has been struggling all EuroBasket and Spain has one of the best defenses in the tournament (they were 4th in all of EuroBasket in points allowed per 70 possessions, according to In The Game).  However, there is one area where the struggling Slovenians are having success offensively, and that is on the block.  During this EuroBasket, Slovenia has posted a PPP of 1.0 on the block, which is good for 5th among the 24 EuroBasket participants.  The good thing about post play being the only real strength of Slovenia’s offense right now is that despite having Serge Ibaka and the Gasol brothers, Spain’s post defense hasn’t been great.  In fact, with Spain looking like they have figured out their PNR defense (something that really gave them problems during prep games), defending the post seems to be the only hole in their defense.  In the 48 post up possessions they have seen during EuroBasket, they have given up 45 points which in terms of PPP works out to 0.9375, good for 15th among the 24 EuroBasket teams.

Digging a little further, you notice that Slovenia only posts up two players with very different results.  So far during this competition, Erazem Lorbek and Mirza Begic have combined for 76.5% of Slovenia’s post up attempts.  Lorbek has posted a PPP of 0.643 while Begic has a PPP of 1.667 (the highest PPP in the tournament so far).

Begic is a 7 footer (according to DraftExpress, he is 7’3″) who gets most of his looks in the post coming off of set plays where he isn’t the main option.  When he does have the ball in the post, he has a nice little spin move along the baseline where he can use his size to establish position and finish easily off the glass.  When he goes to the middle, he likes to use the hook shot:

Begic seems to be at his best when he is backing down his man, feels the pressure, and spins off of it towards the baseline.  What’s interesting about that is that is how Marc Gasol likes to play defense:

Gasol puts so much pressure and pushes up against his man so hard that it makes him susceptible to the drop step/spin move along the baseline.  Will Marc be matched up against Begic?  It’s hard to say, but if that match-up takes place, Slovenia needs to dump the ball in and take advantage.  Unfortunately, we aren’t able to see how these two guys played against each other before the tournament.  Even though the two teams met twice during their respective prep schedules, Slovenia didn’t really work the post a ton, with Begic actually getting 0 post looks (he didn’t play in one game) and Lorbek got 4 touches on the block, scoring just two points.

Is Slovenia going to beat Spain in the quarterfinals?  Probably not, as Spain is just way too strong and I think their ball pressure will make it hard for Slovenia to get into any kind of flow on the offensive end.  However, if Slovenia wants to have a chance, it just makes sense they should pump the ball into the post, especially to Mirza Begic and let him work, try to get baskets, and draw fouls.