Ever since the acquisition of Chris Paul, the Clippers have had more buzz around them than any team in the league. The “other” L.A. finally had a superstar tandem to do battle with the West’s elite. But early this season, it is becoming apparent that another off-season import will determine how high the Clippers ceiling actually is.

Caron Butler was inked to a three year deal in hopes of filling the vacant small forward spot on the Clippers frontline. The original planned called for Butler to be teamed with sharpshooters Mo Williams and Eric Gordon. When Gordon was moved as a part of the Paul trade, Butler’s role and expectations changed. More than ever, Butler will need to help spread the floor for numerous pick and rolls L.A. plans to run in Lob City.

Outside of his 29 games in Dallas last season, in which he shot a blistering 43.1%, Butler has been a non-threat outside the 3-point stripe for his entire career, shooting just 31.9%. L.A. is hoping that his production this season mirrors that of his brief time in big D. Whether that percentage was a fluke due to a small sample size or real improvement hindered by his knee injury is something the Clippers will find out this season. Thus far, the early signs haven’t been great.

According to Synergy data, Butler is just 4-16 in 3-point spot-up situations and 6-20 from behind the arc overall. It’s yet another small sample size that by no means carves his fate into stone, but it certainly doesn’t head in an encouraging direction either. So while the Clips came away with a 93-88 win over Portland last night, Butler’s 2-8 performance from behind the 3-point line certainly didn’t alleviate concerns of L.A. going forward. Here is a video of Butler’s shot attempts from last night in all situations out of a pick and roll:

The final tally is 1-4 with the lone make being a long two, statistically speaking the most inefficient shot in basketball (for more on that see: Hollinger, John). Obviously Butler isn’t going to make every shot, but consistent misses out of these situations will mess with both his confidence and the overall flow of the offense.

Late in the 2nd quarter (don’t be confused by the score, it’s the late second), Butler gets the ball reversed to him from the wing out of a pick and roll on the opposite side of the floor. He has a great look for a 3-point shot (and baseline drive) but passes up on the shot and ends up passing back out to Randy Foye on the wing. Foye, an inferior offensive player, is now tasked with creating offense with little time left on the shot clock. Here’s the clip:

Butler, perhaps due to the not having the mindset of a shooter used to success, passes up on a great shot (a corner 3) for the worst shot in basketball (a contested long two). Sure, the ball goes in, but focusing on just the result ignores the underlying problem.

Butler makes a similar decision just before half-time. Paul comes off a pick and roll and sucks in Butler’s defender (Gerald Wallace). The kick-out pass gives him the opportunity to shot, but Butler ends up making an extra pass to Mo Williams in the corner for an uncontested 3. Here is video:

A clean look from the corner for a better 3-point shooter is a great read by Butler and will be great offense for the Clippers this season. But here’s the problem, come playoff time, when teams prepare for L.A., defenders like Wes Matthews won’t leave a good shooter (Williams) to stunt so aggressively at a poor shooter (Butler). Now if both players are hitting a high percentage of their shots, the defense obviously has to pick their poison and it will be time for the offense to burn out the lights on the scoreboard.
However, a prepared, disciplined team, like the ones they’ll face in May and maybe June, will be able to adjust to this. When creating a gameplan to defend Paul and the Clippers’ pick and roll action in a seven game series, an opposing coach will basically find the most palatable thing to give up (because when Paul is in a ballscreen with Griffin or Jordan, a team is going to give something up). That option will be Butler, assuming he hovers around his 31.9% career mark from 3 all season.

Scheming around a non-threat like Butler makes things infinitely easier on a defense. Using the last play as an example, instead of Matthews flying out at Butler like he did, his marching orders could be to stunt to stop only a direct drive to the rim, but keep himself in a position to chase the shooter he’s assigned too (Williams in this case) off the 3-point line. In the most basic sense, the Clippers’ opponents can play the odds that a below-average shooter can’t beat them for four games out of those pick and roll situations.

This type of scheme can also affect a player’s confidence and when an athlete loses that, it can have damaging affects to the team. The following video is of Butler receiving a kick-out off ballscreen penetration. Butler actually elevates into a wide open 3-point look before trying to thread a low percentage pass toward Blake Griffin near the rim. The result is an ugly turnover. Take a look.

By unofficial count, Butler was involved in seven possessions spotting up off the pick and roll in which his involvement directly affected the play. The results? One field goal (a long two), an assist (born from a tough shot) and a turnover. That’s .57ppp (pts per possession) with a turnover, numbers that certainly aren’t going to cut if the L.A. wants to be a top tier offensive team this season. While the certainly can hang their hat on the defensive end in order to be successful, one can just ask Memphis and Chicago what poor offensive play does to your chances deep in the playoffs. Bottom line, if the Clippers want to be serious contenders, the Butler will have to give a helping hand.

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