Two months ago we couldn’t say for sure that the NBA would have a 2011-2012 campaign, but thanks to the brilliant legal maneuver of hogtying Jeffrey Kessler in a closet, the league is back and along with it is NBA Playbook. While the site will still be producing content for fans and observers to stay more informed about the game they love, they will do so without a familiar face; Sebastian Pruiti.
Thanks to years of hard work and dedication to his craft, Sebastian has taken his talents to Grantland and will be dropping some hoops knowledge under the watchful eye of Bill Simmons. His Shaq-size (metaphorically speaking) shoes will be nearly impossible to fill, but as a fellow hoops tactician masquerading as a writer, I will do my best to capably fill them. Luckily, I will not have to go at it alone as there is a great team of contributors joining me.
Gian Casimiro, formerly of Knickerblogger and currently of Posting and Toasting, will be chipping in with his breakdowns on weekends. Derek Bodner, of DraftExpress and SB Nation Philly fame, will use his experience scouting the amateur ranks to examine the transitions of the young players trying to make their mark in the NBA. Gary Dodds, Director of Business Development and moonlighting analyst/scout for the Texas Legends will also stop by and share his thoughts. Last, but not least, is the infamous (for no other reason than its fun to describe someone as such) Nick Flynt of Clipperblog. Nick brings a wealth of writing and game-watching experience to the group.
Whether you have heard of them or not, you will get to know each of them over the coming months as we break down what will be a season jam-packed with schemes, sets and out-of-shape players. I’m happy to be a part of it and will do my best to keep NBA Playbook humming along at the standards of past years. Any questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to email me at Brett@NBAPlaybook.com.
My first post on NBAPlaybook appeared on January 3rd, 2010 and as the site approaches it’s second year there are going to be some big changes made. I’ve accepted a position with Grantland in which I’m going to be posting 3/4 times a week covering both the NBA and college basketball. I’ve already done some stuff over there the past couple weeks, and you can check that stuff out over here. While it’s an amazing opportunity, it does mean that I won’t be able to continue running NBAPlaybook, Basketball Prospectus, or The Basketball Jones anymore.
The site isn’t going to die, far from it, and you will learn more about the plan to keep it soon (if you are interested in writing for NBAPlaybook, send your credentials to writing@NBAPlaybook.com). In the meantime, I do want to thank everyone for visiting the site and turning it into what it has become. A special thanks to Henry Abbott, Kevin Arnovitz, Matt Moore, Kurt Helin, Zach Lowe, J.E. Skeets, Kevin Pelton, and everyone else that I am obviously forgetting for all of the great advice and insight they provided me helping me turn NBAPlaybook into something special (seriously, go check out those first few posts, eww).
NBAPlaybook should be continuing with it’s regularly scheduled posts sometime next week.
For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.
With the 16th overall selection in the draft, the Philadelphia Sixers selected Nikola Vucevic, a 6’10″ big from USC who is very talented offensively and underrated as a defender. As the lockout continues, Vucevic has been playing overseas, first with Montenegro in EuroBasket and now with KK Buducnost.
Strengths
Post Offense
Standing at 6’10″ Nikola Vucevic is a big body who had a height advantage over most of his defenders. Smartly, USC decided to use this size to their advantage by posting Vucevic over 42% of the time. When he makes the catch on the block, Vucevic is at his best when he is turning around his left shoulder. This means when he makes the catch on the left block, he’s turning to the middle and when he is making the catch on the right block, he is turning towards the baseline. In terms of PPP when turning around his left shoulder, Vucevic posted a PPP of 1.111 on the left block and a PPP 1.182 on the right block (both numbers in the top 15 percent of all college players). His go to move on the block when making his turn around his left shoulder is the hook shot, a shot he attempted 62% of the time. On those attempts he shot 64.6%, and it makes sense, considering he has a wingspan of 7’4.5″ that hook shot is pretty much unblockable:
On the left block, Vucevic does a great job of establishing position and then once he gets position in the paint, he is able to turn to the middle, extend for the hook, and use his great touch to get a shot over the defense. On the right block, Vucevic does a great job of faking towards the middle and then turning baseline for the hook. That quick little fake to the middle is able get the defense off of Vucevic’s back giving him space to get the hook shot up.
As things currently stand, Ty Lawson is one of the biggest names to move from the NBA to Europe, joining the Lithuanian team, and VTB United League/EuroLeague participants, Zalgiris Kaunas. With that being said, Lawson is probably the most disappointing NBAer preforming overseas right now. So far in 10 games, Lawson’s Zalgiris Kaunas team has played to a 6-4 record (0-2 in EuroLeague/4-0 in Lithuanian League/2-2 in VTB United League) and has averaged just 7.32 points per game and 2.02 assists per game in 17.54 minutes per game (7 ppg/1.5 apg/21.5 mpg in EuroLeague – 5.3 ppg/1.5 apg/12.8 mpg in Lithuanian League – 9.5 ppg/2.8 apg/20.3 mpg in VTB United League). This drop in production is pretty surprising, especially considering the fact he is coming off of a breakout season where he played very well in Denver. So what is the reason for the drop in productivity? Well the first thing that jumps out at you is that Zalgiris Kaunas isn’t using him in the best way possible. Here’s a breakdown of some of the playcalling problems:
Too Much Transition
One of the things that doesn’t get mentioned about Lawson’s game enough is that he isn’t the greatest when it comes to transition. Maybe the fact that Lawson is a lighting quick point guard skews perception, but the numbers show that Lawson struggles when on the run (at least when compared to other aspects in his game). Last year with the Nuggets, Lawson was among the bottom half of the league in terms of points per possession in transition, posting a PPP of 1.139 when on the break. The biggest reason for the low PPP is that Lawson has a tendency to turn it over when on the break. With the Nuggets, Lawson turned it over 13.4% of the time on the break as he was in transition 22% of the time. So what did Zalgiris Kaunas do with Lawson? Put him in transition more. So far in 10 games, Lawson has been on the break 30.8% of the time. The result was more turnovers with Lawson coughing it up 20.8% of the time in transition:
When I did my post on Rajon Rondo for Basketball Prospectus a few weeks ago, HoopSpeak‘s Beckley Mason (seriously, go follow him now) mentioned that he thought it would be interesting to look at how other top point guards were played in the pick and roll. Considering that I agree with Beckley, I decided to look at five of the league’s top point guards and see how defenses play them.
Why is this important? With the influx of a lot of great point guards, the pick and roll has been featured more and more in the NBA. The reason why the pick and roll is so effective with a good point guard is that it forces the defense to react and puts them on the backfoot. That’s why you see defenses trying to stop the pick and roll in a lot of different ways. One of the things that I did notice when focusing on the defense is that they tend to try and force the ball handler coming off of the pick away from his strength and towards his weakness.
Rajon Rondo
How Teams Defend Him
Teams defended Rajon Rondo by going under screens. Out of all the ball screens that Rondo received, the defense went under the screen 50% of the time. In addition, Rondo was rarely trapped coming off of the screen, as defenses trapped Rondo 0.8% of the time, or 12 total traps.
Why?
When playing Rajon Rondo, you want to turn him into a shooter and a scorer. Rondo is such a great passer and there are so many other great scorers on his team, that you don’t want to dedicate extra defenders to Rondo as he comes off of the ballscreen:
Rondo is a really heady point guard and when he sees a trap when coming off of the ball screen, he is immediately looking to stretch the defense, find the open man, and hit them. With the kind of success he has being trapped, it is no wonder why you see so few traps of him.
One of the best games of EuroLeague’s second week was Unicaja Malaga’s game against Zalgiris Kaunas on Tuesday. Once the game went into overtime, Unicaja Malaga was able to gain control, eventually clinching the game with a back breaking pick and roll that stretched their lead from five to eight points. The interesting thing about this pick and roll set was that it was set up by another pick and roll:
We pick up this set with Kristaps Valters in a position where he can go in either direction and get a ball screen as both bigs are in position to set one at the elbow. Once Valters comes off of the screen, the screener quickly dives to the rim. This dive to the rim from the initial screener sucks Joel Freeland’s defender into the paint in an effort to defend the pick and roll.
Galatasaray, the Turkish team that took one of the two final EuroLeague spots in the qualifying round, found themselves leading Asseco Prokom by one point with about 35 seconds left. Looking to stretch their lead to three points, Galatasaray wanted to milk the clock and get a high ball screen set. Despite the inability to get the screen set, Galatasaray was able to take advantage of a few defensive errors from Asseco Prokom and get that game clinching basket:
We pick up the set with the ball at the top of the key as it is being dribbled out by Galatasaray’s point guard. As this is taking place, Luksa Andric attempts to come up and set a high ball screen for the ball handler. However, Andric’s defender, Adam Hrycaniuk, is pressuring him heavily off of the basketball.
EuroLeague 2011-2012 kicked off on Monday as CSKA Moscow faced off against Zalgiris Kaunas as the remaining 22 play during the rest of the week. During their first defensive possession of the second quarter, Zalgiris tried to throw a zone at CSKA Moscow but CSKA was able to counter that zone with some fantastic player moving, stretching the zone, and creating a wide open jump shot:
We pick up CSKA Moscow’s set right after the ball gets sent to the wing. Once that happens, you have all five players off of the basketball taking off and moving. You first have the offensive player on the weakside block flashing to the basketball. As that happens, Alexey Shved comes from the opposite wing and heads to the strong side corner. Once Shved leaves, Milos Teodosic replaces him, creating space and allowing the fourth and final player off of the ball to fill his spot at the top of the key. Once that top of the key spot is filled, the ball gets swung.
For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.
Out of nowhere, the Spurs made a trade for Kawhi Leonard, a player that they seemed to be very high on. So high, they were willing to trade back-up point guard, and Gregg Popovich favorite, George Hill to Indiana so they could acquire Leonard.
Strengths
Forcing Turnovers
If I were to pick out Leonard’s biggest strength, it would be his on ball defense. Maybe the biggest indicator of how good he is defensively is his ability to force turnovers when defending ball handlers, both in isolation situations and in the pick and roll. When in isolation situations, Leonard forced a turnover 23.8% of the time, holding opponents to 37.5% shootings. In pick and roll situations where he defended the ball handler, Leonard 23.7% of the time, giving up a PPP of just 0.658 (putting him in the top 35% of all college players). The first thing that you notice about Leonard on tape is his length. He has an incredibly long wingspan, 7’3″ according to DraftExpress, and that allows him to do things defensively that some other defenders can’t do:
With that length, he doesn’t have to reach in on dribble penetration, allowing him to stay in front and bother drives by being in the passing lanes (again with his long arms). However, when the offensive player does stick the ball in front of him, his hands are quick enough to go for the steal without drawing contact or committing a foul.
As you may have heard, I am going to be helping out the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this upcoming D-League season, and that has me moving to Fort Wayne, Indiana. That move is taking place early Monday morning as I hop in my car and make the 10 hour drive to Indiana. Because of that, I am spending the rest of this week prepping for the move and I won’t have any time to get anymore posts up until next Tuesday. My posts at The Basketball Jones and Basketball Prospectus will still be there (coming tomorrow and Friday), just nothing here until next week.
So what should you expect when we get back to daily content? More draft scouting reports, more mythbusters, a look at Rick Adelman and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and a look at some controversial point guards and whether or not they should be point guards. These posts will start coming on Tuesday.
One final note, this is a good opportunity to bring up donations. I have been blown away and humbled by the generosity of the readers who donated, and if you haven’t that is fine too. However, to help me keep posting at a regular season pace (even if there is no regular season, I will be covering EuroLeague as if it was the NBA season), while in Indiana I need to continue to ask for donations. Here is the ChipIn Display once again:
