Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic | Timofey Mozgov | Tiago Splitter | Pooh Jeter | Omer Asik

Kevin Seraphin was drafted by the Chicago Bulls with the 17th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.  His rights were immediately traded to the Washington Wizards.  The 20 year old Seraphin is making the jump to the NBA this year as the Wizards and his French League team Cholet came to a buyout agreement.

This is a surprising move in my opinion, because I was expecting to see the somewhat raw Seraphin get another year of seasoning with Cholet Basket (Seraphin was starting to see more minutes with the French League winners, even starting a few games towards the end of the season).  To me, the reason seems to be that the Wizards want to be the ones developing Seraphin, rather than hoping that he gets minutes with Cholet.

Strengths

Athleticism

Kevin Seraphin is a very athletic big man for his size, and he uses that athleticism pretty well.  The two instances where you really see Seraphin’s athleticism stand out is when he runs the floor and when he rebounds.  When rebounding, Seraphin covers a lot of ground from when the shot goes up to when the rebound is available.  He is usually out of position when the shot goes up, but his athletic ability allows him to “go get it.”

In addition to his rebounding, Seraphin can run the floor very well, proving his guards options on the fast break:

He doesn’t just run the floor on the offensive end either, Seraphin can run the floor when getting back on defense, actually taking away fast break opportunities from opposing teams:

Here, Seraphin covers a lot of ground to even be involved on the play. What I love about this play is that Seraphin doesn’t run to the ball, instead he runs straight to the rim and lets the offensive player take it to him.

Post Defense

At 6’9″ and 258 pounds, Kevin Seraphin isn’t a super big center, but he is strong enough and uses his body well enough  that he has become a good defender in the post.

When playing defense in the post, Seraphin always seems to establish a very good base, and the clip above gives you a very good look at it.  He keeps his legs wide, and they are always under him.  Because he has such a strong base, he isn’t going to be pushed around, and that means he doesn’t have to use his hands on defense.  He simply sticks his chest out when the defender tries to post him.  Also, since he isn’t using his arms to push his man out of the post, he is able to get his long ups straight up in the air and bother the shot.

Above is another example of Seraphin’s post defense and strength. Here, you can see the offensive player take a ton of dribbles trying to back Seraphin down. He is unable to and is forced to settle for a fall-away jumper.

The Hook Shot

In DraftExpress’ latest look at Seraphin, they take note of his hook shot:

With that said, Seraphin shows interesting potential with his jump hook. He’s able to get it off smoothly and convert it with either hand. He also appears to have a soft touch around the basket, particularly with a good-looking turnaround jump shot that he executes with a high release point.

When watching Seraphin play, I noticed the same thing with his hook shot.

Here, Seraphin makes the catch on the block and takes two dribbles to time his move and then takes the hook shot with his right hand. Everything DraftExpress mentions about Seraphin’s move is on this clip. He has very good extension with his shooting hand, and that means most defenders aren’t going to be able to block that shot.

This move is not as smooth as the first, but it still gets the job done pretty effectively.  He takes two dribbles and makes the turn, but he loses his balance.  This is what makes the shot look a bit awkward, but he is still able to knock it down.

Weaknesses

Raw Offensively

Other than the hook shot and the pick and roll (where Seraphin’s athletic ability really helps him), Seraphin really struggles on the offensive end of the floor.  In the post, when the defense takes away his ability to turn to the middle and attempt his hook shot, he looks lost.

Here, Seraphin’s defender is taking away his turn to the middle and is completely giving up the baseline. However, Seraphin turns to the middle because he is only comfortable taking that hook shot.

In addition to defenders taking away his hook shot, Seraphin gets in trouble when he makes the catch in the middle of the paint rather than on the block. This is because when he gets it in the block he can work towards the middle for his hook. However, when he makes his catch in the middle, he doesn’t seem comfortable:

So what Seraphin does here is take one dribble to the block and then tries to spin back towards the middle. However, he just crosses himself up and walks.

In addition to his raw post game, Seraphin contributes little from the outside. Even as his game continues to develop with experience, I don’t see Seraphin being a guy who can step out and stretch the floor. When he makes his catch on the outside, he just looks way too uncomfortable, and his shot from the outside doesn’t look good. In addition to that, he struggles from the foul line. Seraphin shot 55.6% from the line during French League play (however he did shoot 75% in 6 Eurocup games, but that was only averageing 0.7 attempts a game).

Defensive Inexperience

When he is not playing one on one defense in the post, Seraphin also looks lost on the defensive end.  This is primarily due to his lack of experience. Seraphin has only been playing basketball for five years, and his inexperience really shows. One of the areas where Seraphin struggles is in pick and roll situations.  In his PNR defense, Seraphin’s hedges are actually very good (and this is because he has all of the skills to do it effectively), however, when he attempts to recover, that is where he really struggles:

Here, Seraphin comes out with a good strong hedge, but he returns to his man too early and that is what allows for the lay-up.

Here, Seraphin hedges out hard and for the proper amount of time, however when he tries to return to his man he gets lost. So lost in fact, that he ends up just running to the closes man (who isn’t his man). All this confusion leads to a basket for the opposing team.

Here is another good hedge from Seraphin (in terms of form and fundamentals) however, he shows too soon, exposing the middle of the court and the offensive player takes advantage.

In addition to that, Seraphin also struggles with the concept of help defense:

Here, Seraphin comes with the help, but it is slow and that creates a gap that the passer uses to hit his man for an open lay-up.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Kevin Seraphin just doesn’t have the skills (or the experience to really be a factor this year), but that doesn’t mean he is going to be a bust.  Seraphin is only 20 years old and he shows some skills and the potential to develop a few others.  He is probably coming over a year or two too early in my opinion, but that is probably because the Wizards want to be the ones in control of his development (rather then his French League team).

I think the D-League would do wonders for Seraphin’s game.  He would be able to work on developing new post moves and just getting experience on the defensive end in live-game situations.  If Seraphin gets a year in the D-League and a year of limited minutes (where he gets some minutes but is really getting his work in during practice), I really think that Kevin Seraphin can make a pretty big impact in year three (he’s only going to be 23 in the third year of his contract).

Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic | Timofey Mozgov

Out of the eight players coming over to the NBA from overseas, Tiago Splitter is probably the most well known name (Not counting guys like Josh Childress and Linas Kleiza, who have already played in the NBA).  Splitter’s name has been out there since 2006 when he was supposed to enter the NBA draft, but eventually declined.  The Spurs took him the next year after, since his age made him eligible.  Spurs’ fans have been waiting for him ever since.  After agreeing to an $11 million deal over three years, Splitter is finally coming over to the NBA.

The reason that there has been so much hype (and so much talk about how good Splitter’s deal is for the Spurs), and it is because he is a very talented.  At 6’11″ and 245 pounds, Splitter’s polished post game is what really makes him special in my opinion.

Quick Note:  In the clips, Splitter is wearing #21 for his team in the white jerseys.  He is wearing an arm sleeve which makes identification easier.

Strengths

Polished Post Game

I briefly mentioned this in the intro, but in my opinion Tiago Splitter’s polished post game is his best attribute.  In the post, Splitter really makes it tough for defenders because he really knows how to counter what the defense does to him:

Here, Splitter’s defender has his hand on his back and is trying to be physical with him.  Splitter counters this by feeling for the defender and quickly pivoting to the inside.  As he does this, he throws his off hand up (if he keeps his hand close to his body, it isn’t a foul) creating separation between himself and his defender.  This gives him the lane and the only reason he misses is because he is fouled (it doesn’t get called).

If his defender tries to be less physical with him, Splitter will take the space he is given and create even more. Here, Splitter backs his man all the way down to the rim and is able to finish the play with a basket.

However, where Splitter’s post game separates itself from others is that he is so polished down low and he is able to finish in a variety of ways:

In clip 1, Splitter executes a fantastic up and under, showing the ball quickly to the defender before taking it away and making his move.  The move results in a foul and a trip to the line.  In clip 2, Splitter is backing down his man and it appears that he is going to make his move to the middle of the court.  At the last moment, Splitter quickly shifts his weight, turns baseline, and hits the hook using his soft touch.  In clip 3, Splitter realizes that he has a smaller man on him and instead of trying to force it inside he simply turns and hits a baby hook, taking advantage of his height.

All of the three moves shown above are extremely difficult to execute and Splitter seems to be able to execute them with ease.

Passing Ability

When you have the post game that Tiago Splitter has, you are going to see a lot of double teams.  Splitter’s ability to pass out of the post complements his post game so well, and it really puts the defense in a  tough decision.  If you let him work one on one, he will do his work in the post.  If you double him, he will find the open man:

Here, Splitter is doing his work in the post when a guard on the outside tries to come down and steal the ball.  The second that the guard comes down, Splitter hits his teammate for the open jumper.

This time, the defense tries to send a double team from the opposite side of the court.  This works with some big men, because they keep their head down and by the time he realizes the double team is coming it is too late.  This doesn’t happen with Splitter, he always keeps his head up, and in this case the result is a fantastic skip pass to a wide open teammate.

It isn’t just in the post either.  What makes Splitter a good passer in general is that he always knows where he wants to go with the basketball instead of making the catch and then looking for a passing option.  This means Splitter makes his passes quicker and that is harder to defend:

Defensive Ability

In addition to his post play and his passing, Splitter does a very good job on the defensive end.  He isn’t a player who is going to pile up a ton of blocks or a ton of steals, but his impact can’t really be measured by those stats.  He works so hard on the defensive end and is usually in the correct spot on the court, that he is an asset when playing defense:

I already mentioned that Splitter doesn’t block a ton of shots, but he effects plenty of shots by challenging them and forcing the offense to miss/alter shots.

In both of these clips, Splitter is able to force a miss.  In the first clip, Splitter helps on the penetration and forces the offensive player to shoot the ball long.  In the second clip, Splitter helps on defense and the ball is kicked to the outside.  Splitter knows he isn’t going to be able to block the shot, but he closes out hard, forcing the miss.

In addition to his help defense/closing out, Splitter is also a good defender in the post:

What really impresses me is that he can be so physical without fouling.  This is because he’s not using his arms to create the contact, instead he is using his chest.  He absorbs the offensive player’s attempts to back him down, and when he goes up for a shot, Splitters arms are free to contest.

Weaknesses

Not A Threat On  The Outside

Splitter’s two biggest weaknesses come from the fact that he doesn’t really have the ability to shoot the basketball from the outside.  Now, to his credit he knows his limitations and doesn’t force things (in fact I didn’t see him shoot one shot from outside of the lane in the four games I watched), but eventually teams are going to realize this and try to force Splitter to make his catch further away from the basket:

In each of these two clips, Splitter makes a catch on the outside and immediately looks for a teammate to pass to.  However, Splitter can’t find anyone and he is forced to put the ball on the floor.  In both instances, he is able to dribble himself into the post, but when he does that I have noticed that he doesn’t look as comfortable (or as polished) in the post.  The results of the two moves above are an airball and a travel.

Teams will start noticing that, and when they do they will begin to sag off of him big time:

Now normally this wouldn’t be a huge problem.  Duncan has a pretty good high post/outside game, so Splitter can work in the post while Duncan works on the outside.  However, Duncan has a very good low post game too, so you know the Spurs are going to want to take advantage of it.  This will force Splitter to play the high post, but since he isn’t a threat his defender will be able to double down on Duncan, making him ineffective in the post.

Foul Shooting

Now it should be mentioned that Tiago Splitter shot 79.1% from the free throw line in ACB play this past season.  However, it is hard to judge whether or not this was a fluke.  In my personal opinion, I am leaning towards it being a fluke, just because to have you shooting percentage jump from 68.2% (his percentage the previous year) to 79.1%.  Up until this past season, that 68.2% from the line was the best mark of his career.

Another reason that it could be fluky is that Splitter shot about 63% from the line during EuroLeague competition this year.  Now ACB and EuroLeague games pretty much overlap (though the ACB season does extend longer), so it is interesting that he shot it so poorly from the line in EuroLeague and so well during the ACB season.

The final reason I think that Splitter’s FT% is a fluke is that there are still some things wrong with his shooting form.  Mainly, he lets the ball rest on his palm:

Ask any good shooter and he will tell you that the key to getting good rotation on your shot is your fingers.  As you flick your hand when you shoot, your fingers want to me the last thing touching the basketball.  To get good rotation consistently, a shooter wants to create a little pocket between the palm of the hand and the basketball.  A good indication of proper hand position is that if you can see a gap between the palm of the hand and the basketball.  However, here you can see the ball is just resting on his palm.

Conclusion

In my opinion, the hype around Tiago Splitter is most definitely warranted, there is no question in my mind about that.  He is so polished on the offensive end in terms of his post play and his passing ability that I can see him being one of the top offensive back to the basket centers in the NBA this season.  Splitter has fantastic touch around the basket, and he always keeps his head up, so when defenses double him, he can find the open man.  On the defensive end, Splitter works very hard, and you know Coach Pop is going to love him for that.

However, his lack of shooting ability on the outside will create some problems at first (and maybe even during the entire season).  Coach Popovich is one of the best coaches there is though, and I think he will figure out what to do with Splitter when he wants to take advantage of Tim Duncan on the inside (one thing that immediately comes to mind is to have Splitter cut to the rim as soon as his man leaves him to double).

Update: Links

Came across two really good Tiago Splitter links and thought I would include them.

First, over at The Painted Area, they have a breakdown of Splitter’s game against the Dominican Republic from FIBA Americas in 2009.  I actually tried to get my hands on this game because it showcased Splitter against pro-level competition, but no luck.  The Painted Area does just an even better job looking at that individual game than I could have done.

Also at 48MinutesOfHell, they look at how Splitter will fit on the Spurs.  It is a video and very well done.  Go check it out!

Past Editions: Nikola Pekovic

Timofey Mozgov is a 24 year old center signed as a international free agent by the New York Knicks for $10 million over the course of three years.  Mozgov is a big boy at 7’1″ and 270 pounds, but he isn’t a stiff.  Mozgov has bounce to his step, and he is pretty mobile for his size.  Mozgov has spent the last four years playing for the Russian club Khimki Moscow Region.

Note:  Mozgov wears #25 for his team, Khimki.  You will recognize him in the clips by his high socks.

Strengths

He Can Run The Floor

Some Knicks fans are probably wondering why the Knicks signed a 270 pound big man to play in their run and gun style offense.  Despite his size, Mozgov doesn’t lumber up and down the court:

Mozgov doesn’t get the ball on this fast break, but you can see he can keep up with his point guard in transition.  He isn’t going to run by anybody on the break, but he can fill the lane in transition, making himself available to his PG in the middle of the paint on fast breaks.

Sets Good Screens/Strong Pick And Roll Game

In my opinion, Timofey Mozgov’s best skill right now is the ability to set screens and be the screener in pick and roll situations.  When setting screens, size is Mozgov’s best asset, but he also has fantastic form:

His feet are wide, he gets a low base, and he doesn’t move too much when he gets set.  He simply lets the ballhandler bring his man to the screen.  I also really like Mozgov’s ability to set legal screens in transition:

Mozgov is able to go from running down the court to setting a screen almost seamlessly.  This skill is important (especially when playing for a team that likes to play a fast pace game, like the Knicks) because now the offense doesn’t have to slow down and wait for the perfect situation to get the pick and roll going.  This also catches the defense off guard, and makes the screens even more effective.

Timofey Mozgov isn’t just a screen setter though.  Mozgov’s athletic ability at his size allows him to be pretty effective when rolling to the basket.

Mozgov has a pretty good feel of what the defenders playing the pick and roll want to do and he plays off of it. Here in clip 1, they trap the ballhandler and Mozgov quickly rolls to the basket. However, there are times where he needs to wait a few seconds before rolling to the basket, and he knows when to do that do (which is what happens in clip 2).

Mozgov doesn’t always roll the correct way, but unlike Nikola Pekovic (who we saw roll the wrong way every time).  He waits until after the initial contact is made before rolling.  This makes it less likely that he gets a moving screen set on him.  Also, Mozgov does a very good job of rolling to the open space on the court, making him available for passes at the rim:

Finally, Mozgov doesn’t get disappointed when he doesn’t get the basketball on the pick and roll.  Usually, when the roller is open and he doesn’t get it, they tend to pout.  Well Mozgov rolls straight towards the rim, ready to get the rebound:

Athletic Ability On Defense:

When Mozgov doesn’t have to think on the defensive end and he can just let his athletic ability take over, Mozgov can make some impact plays on the defensive end:

Here, the ballhandler takes it right into Mozgov. No thinking is necessary here, Mozgov just plays the ball and uses his athletic ability to block the shot.

Again, the ball is driven right to Mozgov, and he is mobile enough to not foul and deflect the ball, getting the steal.

Weaknesses

Defensive IQ

I just mentioned that when Mozgov doesn’t have to think and he can just react, he can be a pretty good defender.  However, when he needs to think and make a decision on the defensive end, it tends to be the wrong one.  Now, Mozgov’s team plays a lot of zone, so this lack of instincts when playing man to man defense could be due to lack of experience (which means it can be corrected/his instincts will improve with experience), but right now it is still a pretty big weakness.

Where Mozgov struggles the most is when he tries to defend the pick and roll:

On the pick and roll, Mozgov seems very unsure about when he needs to show and when he needs to stay with his man. In the clip here, this small hesitation before showing is what leads to a lay-up.

In addition to being unsure, when Mozgov does show, it is usually late and very weak. Instead of using his body to cut off the ballhandler and making him pick up his dribble, Mozgov reaches. Here he picks up a foul, but if he doesn’t get a steal the ballhandler simply gets around him and into the lane.

It’s not just on the pick and roll either. In general Mozgov’s instincts on the defensive end are pretty poor:

Here, it is pretty obvious that Mozgov and his teammate should be switching on the defensive end. However, Mozgov doesn’t switch and when he does realize he is supposed to close out on the shot, he closes out late, allowing for the open jumper.

These lack of instincts also hurts him when playing help defense. Often times Mozgov doesn’t know when to bring help. The result is that he usually doesn’t help, and when he does it is too late to make a difference.

Touch A Couple Steps Away From The Hoop

When posting up, position is very important for Mozgov.  When he gets close to the basket, he can use his height to help him finish.  However, when he gets a few steps away from the rim to an area where he needs to use his touch, he seems to struggle getting baskets.

Here Mozgov makes two pretty nice moves in the post, but when it comes time to put the ball in the basket, he can’t finish.

Also, Mozgov doesn’t have a constant jumper, so he is not a threat to stretch the court when he is on the outside.

Conclusion

After watching just a few of Timofey Mozgov’s games, it is pretty obvious why the Knicks made a play for him.  He runs the floor well and is very impressive in the pick and roll game (The Knicks were the best PNR team – when it came to the roll man – last year).  In my opinion what makes him a really good fit with the Knicks is that his weaknesses (bad defensive instincts, no touch away from the basket with his post moves) are in areas the Knicks don’t really concern themselves with, so they won’t be asking him to do things he is bad at.  Mozgov is the perfect candidate to back up Amar’e at the center position, and when he gets his minutes he can be pretty productive in the Knicks system.

Nikola Pekovic is a 24 year old 6’11″ center who was taken by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the first pick in the second round in 2008.  After playing two seasons for the Greek club Panathinaikos Pekovic signed a 3 year deal with the Timberwolves, guaranteeing that he will be taking his talents to the NBA.

Quick Note:  In the following clips, Nikola Pekovic is #14 playing for Panathinaikos, who are wearing green.

Strengths:

Work In The Post

The first thing that you notice when watching Nikola Pekovic play is that he absolutely loves throwing his body around when working in the post:

Pekovic is willing to bang bodies with his defender whenever he thinks he can improve his position by doing so. Pekovic has good but not great post moves and a good but not great ability to dribble in the post, but what makes him so good is that he gets such good position that all he needs to do is take one dribble or make one move to get a shot off:

In the above clip, the basketball gets swung to the wing, and as it does Pekovic absolutely drills his defender with his body.  This allows himself to get such good position in the post that he doesn’t even need to take a dribble after making the catch, he simply turns and hits the soft baby hook.

Besides getting good position, Pekovic’s next best skill in the post is his composure:

In both of the above clips, Pekovic’s composure is what allows him to get his points in the post.  In the first clip, Pekovic makes the catch and then pauses, allowing enough space to be created so he can make his move and score.  If he goes right away he spins right into a crowded area, instead, Pekovic waits for a second and he is able to make a move uncontested.

In the second clip, Peckovic’s initial move is half of a spin move.  Instead of forcing up a shot, Pekovic stays composed and continues to pivot.  The result is that he finds himself right at the rim totally uncontested.

Making Himself Available To Teammates

Besides scoring in the post, Pekovic seems to get the rest of his points playing off of his teammates.  He has an ability to create passing lanes for his teammates and staying available for them when they drive the basketball.  This is a lot harder than it sounds, and Pekovic makes it look easy, especially in the post:

In both of the clips above, Pekovic seems to be thinking one step ahead.  In both of the clips, his defender is working hard, trying to front him when he posts.  Instead of fighting through the front, he knows that his teammate will be kicking the ball around the perimeter if he can’t get it in the post right away.  So what Pekovic does so well is that he creates a passing lane before the passer even gets the ball.  The result is an easy dunk in clip one and a foul on the defense in clip two.

It’s not just in the post either.  Pekovic is very good at playing off of his teammate when his teammate drives the lane.  What I mean by that is he always seems to be available and in position to catch a pass:

Here, Pekovic’s teammate turns down his screen and drives baseline.  Pekovic’s teammate helps on the baseline driving, opening up the lane.  Pekovic cuts right into that open spot on the court with his hands ready.  He makes the catch and finishes at the rim.

Even in transition, Pekovic seemed to make himself available for teammates:

Here, Pekovic is trailing the play as his point guard is bringing the ball up in transition.  Instead of assuming that his teammate will take the shot or get an easy lay-up, Pekovic continues to trail his teammate all the way to the rim.  So when his teammate gets caught in the air Pekovic serves as the life raft, there ready to catch the ball and finish at the rim.

When his teammates drove, Pekovic wasn’t always looking to find an open area for himself.  Pekovic’s movements were all about trying to get a basket for his team (no matter who scores it):

In the above clip, the ball gets swung around and Pekovic’s teammate drives baseline towards him.  Instead of looking for an open spot for himself, he seals off his man and clears the lane.  This allows his teammate to get an easy lay-up.

Pick And Roll Defense

The final thing that really impressed me about Pekovic’s game was his pick and roll defense.  With the increased use of the pick and roll by teams in the NBA (whether it is the main offense or not, every team runs the pick and roll multiple times a game), this could be the most important skill Pekovic brings to the Timberwolves.  What makes Pekovic so good when the pick and roll is his ability to show strong and still get back to his man:

When most big men show on the pick and roll, they just sort of get in the way, not really being effective on defense. When Pekovic shows, his first goal is to force the ballhandler to pick up his dribble then he returns to his man:

Weaknesses

Help Defense

It’s funny, Pekovic is so good when defending the pick and roll that you would think he’d be a solid help defender.  This is far from the case.  Pekovic’s problem seems to be he tends to lock on his man and not worry about what is going on with everyone else:

On this play, Pekovic is watching his man walk up the court, and he stays with him.  The problem is that he isn’t the man with the basketball.  The man with the ball attacks the basket and Pekovic sees everything too late, resulting in Pekovic’s inability to challenge the shot.

It happens here again. Pekovic is so worried about his man as the ball is brought up the court that he isn’t in correct help position. By the time he tries to recover, it is too late and he ends up fouling Ricky Rubio.

Pekovic’s failures when helping also results in an inability to do a good job covering his man. On this play, he seems to overcompensate when playing help defense, allowing for his man to cut on him and get in position to score.

Setting Picks

Another skill that Nikola Pekovic struggles with is setting screens.  Just about every screen I saw him set in four games was a moving one.  Pekovic’s biggest problem is that he turns the wrong way when rolling off of the screen and this results in his butt getting in his way and hitting the defender trying to fight through the screen:

The reason you open up towards the basketball on the roll is so you are always looking at the basketball so you recieve a pass.  Another result of opening towards the basketball on the roll is that it keeps your butt away from the man fighting through the screen, minimizing the contact and minimizing the chance at getting a foul called.  When Pekovic sets screens, he turns the wrong way.  The result is that he gets his hips in the way of the defender, creating contact.  Now in the Greek League, this doesn’t seem to be a foul, but in the NBA that will get called every single time (also, in the last video on the second screen, Pekovic basically tackles Childress with a screen.  Really funny).

Rebounding

Pekovic’s final weakness is his rebounding.  Again, it is strange to see someone who is so good at throwing his body around (and is so big) being bad at rebounding, but that’s the case with Pekovic.  In Euroleague competition, Pekovic only averaged 3.8 rebounds per game in 21.5 minutes over the course of 12 games.  In Greek League play, Pekovic’s numbers were even worse, only grabbing 3.7 rebounds in 16.6 minutes over the course of 35 games.  This is troubling because Pekovic will be facing strong, bigger, and more athletic big men in the NBA.  To me, it seems like Pekovic gives up his position too early when going for a rebound:

Here, Pekovic has Josh Childress on his back. He has pretty good position, but instead of holding his position and waiting for the basketball to land towards him he goes after the ball, only to see it bouncing over his head.

Conclusion

In my opinion, I think Nikola Pekovic is going to have a very strong rookie season.  To me, his weaknesses seem to be correctable, (staying more focused on defense, roll the correct when when setting screen, and holding box outs longer) and watching him work so hard during games, I don’t think working hard to correct his flaws will be a problem.

I also like Pekovic’s versatility and it should (and I say should because who knows what is going on with the Timberwolves right now) get enough minutes to be an impact.  He is mobile enough to play the four alongside Darko and he is big and strong enough to play the five with Kevin Love.  I personally believe that the Timberwolves would be smart to play him at center alongside Love.  Pekovic doesn’t have much of an outside shot beyond the top of the key, and he is much more comfortable in the post whereas Love can work the outside.  Also, if you put a strong pass first point guard, he will be that PG’s dream.  If Ricky Rubio ever ends up in a Timberwolves’ jersey, this will be a fun combo to watch.

The problem is that Carlos Boozer is now in Chicago, and there is a void in Utah’s pick and roll game.  In my opinion, Boozer’s replacement comes down to two guys, Paul Millsap and their newest acquisition Al Jefferson.  The answer should be pretty simple right?  Just look at who runs the pick and roll better, and use them to replace Boozer.  The problem with that is that both Millsap and Jefferson run the pick and roll with the same efficiency:

Jefferson and Millsap’s numbers are so similar that it is basically a toss up when trying to figure out who is better at running the pick and roll.  So when deciding who will replace Carlos Boozer as the main screener, the Jazz are going to have to look at some outside factors.

Who Would Run The Pick And Pop Better?

Being able to pop out after setting a screen and being able to hit a jumper from 10-23 feet is starting to turn into a necessary skill for a big man who wants to succeed when running the pick and roll.  This is because being able to both roll to the basket and popping out to hit the jumper keeps the defense guessing.  If you are able to hit that pick and pop jumper consistently, it is just one other thing the defensive big man showing on the screen needs to worry about.  So out of the two big men, who is the better shooter?  It’s Paul Millsap by wide margin:

Who Is Better In The Post?

This is an important question to ask, because in my opinion if you have someone who is really good/successful at working in the post, you don’t want to waste that post up skill by sticking him in the pick and roll over and over.  Just as Paul Millsap is far and away the better shooter of the two players, Al Jefferson is far and away the better post player:

Even though the field goal percentages are close, Al Jefferson’s points per possession are much higher because he doesn’t turn it over as much as Millsap in the post, and Jefferson is also able to finish with contact in the post.

Conclusion

Obviously looking at the evidence, Paul Millsap should be the man that runs the pick and roll with Deron Williams for the majority of the season.  This takes advantage of Millsap’s shooting ability (plus he is more mobile), and allows the Jazz to take advantage of one of the best back to the basket players in the NBA by sticking him in the post (rather than having him out at the foul line setting screens).

What To Run?

Now that we know who will run the pick and roll, we have to figure out how the two big men can share the court (and take advantage of their skills).  There is one set in particular that sticks out in my mind.  This is a set that when going through Synergy watching Paul Millsap screen and rolls I saw the Jazz run a fair amount of the time.  They ran this set when Boozer and Millsap were sharing the court and they wanted to try and get Boozer the ball in the post:

With Deron Williams bringing the basketball up, you have the Jazz’s three man on the same side as Al Jefferson (who will be playing the 5 spot).  You have Paul Millsap (the 4 man) setting up on the high post, while the 2 man sets up on that side’s corner.

As Williams crosses halfcourt, the 3 man cuts down and behind Al Jefferson.  He doesn’t cut all the way through to the basket, he is just getting level with Jefferson.

He then comes off of a downscreen set by Jefferson and as the 3 man pops out he receives the pass from Deron Williams.

The first look on this set is Al Jefferson posting up.  If they can get it to him, Jefferson now can get to work because of the great spacing this set produces.  If Jefferson in the post isn’t there, the 3 man quickly kicks it out to Deron Williams, who has shortened the passing distance between himself and the 3 man.

After Williams gets the pass, you now have a pick and roll situation with Williams and Millsap.

As Williams comes off the screen, he has three options.  1) Williams hits Millsap on the screen, this results in either an easy basket or it forces the defense to rotate to Millsap and then Jefferson is open for a post to post pass and an easy finish.  2) Williams can keep it and either take the jumper off the dribble (something he is very good at) or drive the basket for a lay-up or drive and kick. 3) The third option is Williams can hit the 2-man because for an open jumper (this happens if the 2-man’s defender gets sucked into helping on the pick and roll action).

The Jazz can even flip this around and run the pick and roll first, and if nothing is there, they can swing it around and post Jefferson.  This isn’t even considering all the high-low stuff Millsap and Jefferson can run.