From now until the start of the NBA season later this month, we are going to be running our season previews. Each day, we are going to look at two teams and talk about one thing they did well last year and one thing that they did poorly last year. Then, we are going to talk about the chances of maintaining what they did well/changing what they did poorly. In this edition we will look at the Charlotte Bobcats.
One Thing They Did Well
Closing Out On Shooters
The Charlotte Bobcats were one of the best defensive team’s in the NBA no matter how you define “best.” According to Synergy, they were tied for 1st (with Boston) in opposing points per possession, and Hoopdata.com has them tied (with Orlando) for first with a 100.2. The Bobcats really excelled holding opponents to low shooting percentage, especially from the three point line. The Bobcats were 6th in opponent shooting percentage (holding teams to 44.8% shooting),and 2nd in opponent three point shooting percentage (holding teams to33.8% shooting from behind the three point line).
The main reason behind their success in this area was the fact that they close out on shooters very well. In my opinion, the best way to determine how a team closes out is to look how teams defend spot up jumpers. According to Synergy, the Bobcats were the best team in the league when it came to “Spot Up” situations, holding opponents to .93 points per possession on just 36.7% shooting (and just 34.8% from the three point line). Part of the reason they are able to close out well is that they have a lot of long armed athletes on their roster:
Throughout of the offseason, I will take a look at teams that most people will think are contenders and look at an area where they struggle. I will then offer up my opinion on how their weakness can be improved on so they can take the next step…today, we are going to look at the Charlotte Bobcats.
The Charlotte Bobcats surprised a lot of people by making it into the playoffs last year winning 44 games and earning the 7th spot in the East. Despite being swept by the Orlando Magic in the first round, it was a successful season especially considering this was the first playoff appearance in team history.
The Bobcats got to the playoffs on the strength of their defense. According to both Hoopdata.com‘s defensive efficiency and Synergy Sports’ points per possession, the Bobcats were the top defense in the league last year. According to Synergy, the Bobcats gave up just .87 points per possession.
It was the offensive end where the Bobcats struggled. According to Synergy, their offense was ranked 22nd in the league with just .92 points per possession. If Charlotte wants see their offense to improve, they really need to try and get out in transition more, where the Bobcats really excel. The Bobcats were ranked 1st in terms of points per possession scoring 1.23 points per every possession the Bobcats got out and ran. However, they didn’t run much. According to Synergy, transition plays account for just 12.1% of their offense. The Bobcats also had the sixth worst pace in the league, creating just 92.9 possessions per game (average is 95.1).
Down by one, the Bobcats were taking the ball out on the side. To the surprise of everyone, they decided to go for the three pointer to take a 2 point lead. I only like going for a three in that situation if you can guarantee yourself getting a real good look. The Bobcats were able to get themselves that look:
As Larry Hughes gets the basketball to inbound, Boris Diaw quickly takes a step out to make himself available for the pass. Doing this presents a quick option for the inbounder, which helps when looking to avoid a 5 second call.
Throughout the playoffs, we are going to be looking at the teams that lost their last game and look at what they can do to try and get a win.
Dwight Howard had 9 blocks in Game 1 against the Bobcats. 9! That is 9 shots at the rim (easy shots since they are in close) that Dwight altered. Part of it is because Dwight is a fantastic defender (he was announced as the DPOY yesterday), but part of it was the fact that he was able to sit in the lane and just wait for the Bobcats to attack the basket. If the Bobcats want to get some easy looks in close, they are going to need to force Dwight to move around on the defensive end.
Throughout the playoffs, we are going to be looking at the teams that lost their last game and look at what they can do to try and get a win.
Here, the man that Dwight is covering hangs around the elbow not moving. This allows Dwight to leave his man with no fear, because he knows where Nazr Mohammed is going to be. If Mohammed moves around a bit, Dwight is going to have to focus his attention to that (because if he doesn’t Mohammed will get himself a basket) and he might not be able to challenge shots.
Also, if Mohammed does a better job of spacing the floor and Dwight still tries to block the shot, the Bobcats can pass it out to the big man for an open look. If you make Dwight cover more distance to try and challenge shots, you can make him pay for it.
With the Bobcats down 5 points with about 2 minutes left, they really needed a stop to try and get back in the game. You know that the Bobcats have good set plays that they run late (with Coach Larry Brown drawing them up), but unless they string together a few stops, it doesn’t matter.
After a dribble handoff from Jameer Nelson to J.J. Redick, Redick makes the catch and comes off of a screen set by Dwight Howard. In this situation, the Bobcats are looking to have the big man hedge the screen to allow Redick’s defender (Larry Hughes) to get back to him. Theo Ratliff is the man hedging, and his goal here is to cut off Redick’s dribble and not let him get around the outside of him.
For these playoff previews we are going to take a look at each team individually, and then we are going to look at the match-up.
Orlando Magic
Strengths
What the Magic do well.
Shoot threes
Defend the paint
Inside-out ball movement
Weaknesses
Some problems the Magic struggle with
Can settle for outside jumpers and ignore their biggest strength, which is Dwight Howard.
Dwight Howard’s foul troubles.
Perimeter defense
Tendencies
Some things you are going to notice when watching the Magic play.
Obviously the Magic love to shoot the 3 pointer, and that makes sense, because they are very good at it (set the record for most threes in a season during their final game).
With the Bobcats down 1 (with 22 seconds left) and needing a win to clinch a spot in the playoffs, you knew that Larry Brown would draw up something special. As the Bobcats came out of the timeout, you just had a feeling that they were going to run something good. Even if they missed, Larry Brown was going to take this possession seriously, if only to work on late game situations for the playoffs:
As the ball gets handed to Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw quickly turns and puts his defender on his back to receive the basketball. This is the second time in two days we have seen this, and I think we are going to be seeing this more often, especially if you are confident with how your PF handles the basketball. Why risk a 5 second violation running a play when you can quickly get it to your PF and run a play from there (its a given that you are talking about a situation where there is time on the clock. If there is 1 or 2 seconds left, teams won’t be doing this).
After the Wizards hit a three pointer to send the game into overtime, I thought that the Wizards were going to be able to use that momentum to steal the game from the Bobcats. However, the exact opposite happened as the Bobcats outscored the Wizards 13-4 in the final 5 minute period.
The key seemed to be the Bobcats willingness to attack the basket. The Bobcats seemed determined to get themselves inside the paint every possession of overtime. Each time, it resulted in one of two things; a trip to the foul line or an easy basket:
Possession 1 – Gerald Wallace Gets To The Line Using A Screen
On this play, the Bobcats set up what looks to be an ISO set for Gerald Wallace. At the last moment, Tyson Chandler comes up and sets a screen for Wallace. Wallace uses the screen and gets all the way to the rim, where he is fouled.
After Russell Westbrook hit a jumper with 3:22 left in the fourth quarter, he was able to cut the Bobcats lead to 4 points. Larry Brown took a timeout, and the possession following it was a pretty important one. If the Bobcats score, they can extend the lead to 6 with about 3 minutes left. If the Bobcats don’t score, the Thunder can cut the lead to 2 or 1 points, and who knows what will happen then. As it turns out, the Bobcats run a beautiful set out of the timeout and push their lead to 6, and the Thunder don’t come closer than that the rest of the ballgame:
Boris Diaw comes to the top of the key and receives the inbounds pass. The beauty of using Diaw (who himself is a pretty good passer for his size) is that you are pulling a front court defender away from the basket, clearing the lane for the potential lob. After Stephen Jackson makes the pass, he cuts through the middle of the lane, using a Tyrus Thomas screen. Over on the far side, Raymond Felton comes up off of a screen set by Stephen Graham. Nothing really important going on over there, as you can tell by the two players jogging through the motions.
After a Raymond Felton jumper, the Charlotte Bobcats took a 74-70 with about 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter, and it looked like they were pulling away. The Dallas Mavericks responded with 13-1 run over a span of three and a half minutes, turning a 4 point deficit into an 8 point lead. I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the key possessions of the run.
Poss. 1 – Terry Steal/Marion Dunk
After two Jason Terry free throws, the Bobcats started the ball up the court. The Bobcats get in their set, and Gerald Wallace is actually open on the wing. Jason Terry does a great job of leaving his man, jumping the pass, and getting the steal. The ball ends up in Jason Kidd’s hands who quickly tosses it back up court, starting a two on one fast break that ends with a Shawn Marion Dunk. 4-0.
