When the ball gets tossed to the trigger man, Pooh Jeter comes down and set a brush screen for Marquis Gilstrap.  Gilstrap come out can receives the basketball from the inbounder Aaron Jackson.  After the quick screen, Jeter floats out towards the corner.

Gilstrap receives the pass and quickly hands it back to Jackson.  This handoff bascially become a screen, as Jackson comes off of Gilstrap after getting the basketball.

This forces the Bulls’ defenders to switch (because as we know, defenses like to switch every screen late) and this results in a big man covering a guard.

Jackson uses his speed advantage to get around his new defender with ease.  Jackson does the smart thing here by attacking the basket, he doesn’t hang around the perimeter or settle for the mid range jumper.  He dribbles right at the help defender, forcing him to make a choice, either stay with his man (Pooh Jeter) or stop the basketball.

The help defender chooses to help on the penetration, allowing Pooh Jeter to spot up wide open behind the three point line in the corner.

Jackson does a great job of finding Jeter wide open and he is able to rise up and attempt the jumper before the defense can close out on him.  Here is the play in real time:

Realizing the new mismatch, the Celtics went to KG early and he scored 6 of the first 12 Celtics points.

On these first two possessions, you see that Shaq’s lack of footspeed is what hurts him here.  Shaq wants to stay up close to defend the shot, but he also has to worry about the drive.  KG has always been able to knock down that little step back, and when he uses it here, Shaq isn’t able to bother KG’s shot because he isn’t quick enough.

Another reason why this match-up doesn’t work is because the Celtics like to use KG as a screener.  That means Shaq is forced to defend the pick and roll.  That is something Shaq is really bad at doing, in fact, he might be the worst in the NBA when it comes to defending the pick and roll.  Mike Brown intentionally put Shaq in a position where he was going to defend more pick and rolls than usual.

Here, Shaq needs to come all the way out to prevent Ray Allen from going baseline. He isn’t quick enough to just hedge, so when Allen kicks it back to KG, he needs to scramble all the way back.  He doesn’t get there in time, and KG is able to knock down the jumper.

So what is the correct match-up?  Well in my opinion it is Anderson Varejao on Garnett.  Varejao isn’t afraid to bang on the inside, but he is also quick enough to stay with KG and challenge shots on the outside.  It takes Coach Brown a few tries (he started with Shaq, went to Jamison, then back to Shaq, then Varejao), but he finally gets Varejao on Garnett in the third quarter, but by then it is too late.

What I mean by that is KG got so many open jumpers and easy looks (and he knocked them down) he was able to get himself in the zone.  You always hear players say once they see the ball go in once, they are good to go.  I tend to believe that is true, and KG got to see the ball go in a ton early, and that gives him the confidence to take (and make) this tough jumper on Varejao.

Kelly Dwyer just put out a fantastic article on what LeBron needs to do in Game 6, what I want to look at is what the Cavs can do to get LeBron going.  In my opinion, it’s all in the playcalling.

Pick and Roll As A Decoy

While watching game 5, I was so shocked that the Cavs didn’t call this play.  I was waiting for it and waiting for it, but it never happened.  That’s funny, because the Cavs seem to run this play once or twice a game and it seems to always work:

The way LeBron was just standing around during Game 5, this play would have worked and probably would have gotten LeBron going with a big dunk (especially when they needed a run in the third quarter).  What was Mike Brown doing not calling this play?  I have no idea.

Pick And Roll With LeBron as the screener

The Cavs don’t do this a ton (according to Synergy he was the roll man 1.1% – or 25 times – of the time he was on the offensive end), but it is something that can work and get LeBron going.  In fact, according to Synergy it produces 1.04 points per possession (this is better than his numbers working out of ISO sets).

It is really hard to defend this because your natural reaction is to hedge and worry about the guy coming off of the screen, but here you want to make sure the roll man (LeBron) doesn’t get free.  It isn’t natural for the defense, and they can get mixed up.

After a few pick and rolls with LeBron being the screen man, he then can slip the screen as the defense is waiting for the pick to be set.

On The Catch

In my opinion, LeBron did two things you don’t normally see him do on the catch. He wasn’t stepping into/through the basketball, and he was bringing it down on the catch.

In the third quarter, the Cavs really tried to get LeBron going. They started setting off-ball screens for James and had him running off of them. Here, LeBron runs along the baseline, getting a screen from Antawn Jamison.

As he curls around the screen, LeBron James makes the catch up high like a good shooter is supposed to. Now look where Jamison is setting his screen. Everything is designed for LeBron to make the catch, take step through the basketball while keeping it high, and pull up off of the catch. That doesn’t happen though.

LeBron stays stationary, and as a result he brings the basketball down before bringing it back up again to shoot it. So why is bringing the basketball down such a big deal? It breaks the rhythm of a shooter. Normally James (along with most shooters) makes the catch, keeps it at the level he makes the catch, and pulls up. Bringing it down and back up again is a wasted motion that throws the timing of the shot off.

LeBron not stepping through the basketball is what causes him to bring it down, and bringing it down is what causes him to miss the jumper. Here it is in real time:

Off The Dribble

Where LeBron really struggled though is shooting off the dribble. I don’t know what it was, but every time he seemed to rise up off the bounce, he was off balance, and that caused a ton of problems.

Here, LeBron is bringing the basketball up when he decides to pull up for a jumper. He comes to a stop and starts to rise up, but notice how far in front his feet are. This causes his butt to be too far out and nothing is on balance as he takes off.

With nothing on balance, LeBron’s whole body starts to lean. LeBron kicks his feet out, it is something he always does, so ignore that, it isn’t a problem. Up top though, his back isn’t straight.

As he lands, his back still isn’t straight. He misses this shot and I really think the fact that he wasn’t on balance through the take-off, the release, or the landing is the reason why. Here it is in real time. Notice he kind of hesitates right before picking up his dribble, as if he doesn’t know whether or not to take one extra dribble:

So what does an on-balance LeBron look like?

Ignore the quality, that is LeBron even though you can’t really tell. Notice as he rises up here his feet are under him and his butt isn’t hanging out.

When he is in the air, he still is kicking his legs out, but that is normal. What you want to notice is how straight his back is. It’s no coincidence that he made this shot off the dribble.

He settled for a three point shot, and that is what makes LeBron really frustrating late, especially because he can do this:

There is no difference in the plays, in fact, the Cavs run it to get Noah on James.  Noah is a great defender and he shows a ton of heart, but there is no way he should be able to cover LeBron on the perimeter.

Late in games, LeBron tends to get into “hero” mode where he wants to hit that backbreaking three pointer, and against the Bulls it didn’t hurt the team, but against a good team who can take advantage on the offensive end, this isn’t going to work.  I think the Cavs are going to make past Boston, but if they don’t, I guarantee you LeBron settling for jumpers is going to play a major role in the series loss.

On this first play, the Cavs try to run a double screen to free up the lane for LeBron James.  The Bulls counter by having James’ defender, Luol Deng, go under the screen.  To make going under the screen much easier, both Rose and Noah back up off their man to clear a lane for Deng to get through.  This is a pretty good defensive strategy by Chicago as you would rather want James shooting a three than getting in the lane, and going under the screen does just that.

With Noah and Rose clearing a lane, Deng is able to cut off James and force a kick-out pass to Delonte West.

West then pump-fakes to LeBron.  Deng bikes on the fake, and LeBron cuts into the paint and receives the pass.  Joakim Noah is currently in help position on the opposite low-block.

As James makes his catch, Noah quickly shows.  I don’t think James was expecting this because he makes the catch and quickly leaves his feet.

As James is caught in the air, he tries to make a pass to Antawn Jamison.  However, Noah quickly reacts to the pass and he is able to get his hands on it.

Rose corrals the deflection and off they go to the other end of the court.  Here it is in real time, notice how Noah shows, but doesn’t really leave his man which is what allows for him to get his hand on the basketball.

The second stop that Noah forced comes with about 1 minute left as the Cavs try to run a pick and roll with LeBron James as the ballhandler.  Now, we have seen teams really struggle with defending the pick and roll in the playoffs, but not here:

As James comes off of the Jamison screen, Noah quickly shows.  Again, I think Noah surprises James, and as James tries to make his move, Noah gets his hand on the ball, knocking it away and allowing for Luol Deng to scoop it up.

Both of these plays show you what makes Noah such a good defender in my opinion.  He makes quick decisions and forces the offense to react to them rather than reacting to what the offense does.  On both of these plays, LeBron looks surprised by Noah being there, and I think that is a result of his quick decision making.

The Bulls really struggled on offense against the Cavs’ defense during Game 1.  They only scored 83 points, and with 106 total possessions, that comes out to only .78 points per possession.  However, there was one set that worked well for the Bulls, and it was the pick and roll.  The Bulls ran the pick and roll 27 times, and they were able to score on it 14 times.

In Game 2, the Bulls need to use the pick and roll to make the Cavs pay for playing Shaq.  On defense, the Bulls have nobody who can stop Shaq, and in Game 1 Shaq had 12 points on 5-9 shooting in just about 24 minutes.  Now, on the other end of the court, the Bulls need to involve Shaq in the pick and roll.  To do so, whoever Shaq is defending needs to set a screen for Derrick Rose.  Every single time down the court when Shaq is in.  Why?  Well, because when the Bulls did it in Game 1, it was effective.  This is because you are forcing Shaq to move, and at his age and game condition (he only just started playing again recently), that is going to be tough for him.  This is the first time the Bulls ran the pick and roll with Shaq in:

Notice how Shaq didn’t even move.  That lack of a hedge is what frees up Derrick Rose for a jumper.  Now, let’s look at another one:

As Hinrich comes off the Gibson screen, Shaq should be moving forward to challenge the shot.

However, his lack of mobility prevents him from doing that, and Hinrich winds up with an open jumper that he knocks down.

Now once the man coming off the screen knocks down a few jumpers, Shaq is going to have to challenge the shot.  When he does this, the roll man is going to be able to get his:

In the end, the goal of the Bulls should be to force the Cavs to make a decision.  Keep Shaq on the court and have the Bulls beat them up with the pick and roll (so they can benefit on offense), or take him out because he is too much of a defensive liability.  The pick and roll is one of the few ways the Bulls can score effectively in this series, so they need to keep doing it until the Cavs are going to be able to stop it, especially with Shaq in the game.

The Chicago Bulls looked they were out of the playoffs a couple weeks ago, but after a few key Raptors broke their faces, the Bulls played their way into the final seed of the playoffs.  Their reward?  The Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing LeBron James

Cleveland Cavaliers

Strengths

What the Cavs do well.

• Movement without the basketball
• Defense
• Bench Play
• LeBron James

Weaknesses

Some problems the Cavs struggle with

• Rely on LeBron a little too much late
• LeBron’s shot selection late
• Guardplay other than LeBron

Tendencies

Some things you are going to notice when watching the Cavs play.

• When Shaq enters the game, they like to immediately go to him a couple possessions in a row to get him in the flow of the game.
• The Cavs love running misdirection plays.  They like to use the attention created by LeBron to set up off the ball screens and create easy looks for everyone.

Key Set

Not the most run set, but maybe most important.  A play that the team likes to run when they need a basket.  You are probably going to see this play run once or twice a game.

• Pick & Roll As A Decoy

The Cavs love to run this play two or three times a game and for some reason it always seems to work.  The reason why it works is because defenders always try to deny LeBron, no matter how far away from the basket he is.  When his defenders are doing this, they never see the backscreen coming and LeBron just comes off of it wide open for the dunk.

Chicago Bulls

Strengths

What the Bulls do well.

• Guard play
• Outside shooting
• Pick and roll
  

Weaknesses

Some problems the Bulls struggle with

• Lack of production from bigs not named Joakim Noah
• Interior defense

Tendencies

Some things you are going to notice when watching the Bulls play.

• Love to settle for jumpers. If they are hitting them, you could be in trouble.  If not, they aren’t going to score much.
• If Joakim Noah get going and starts making plays, it kind of gets everyone else going.
• If the ball is in Derrick Rose’s hands, the Bulls are a threat to score.

Key Set

Not the most run set, but maybe most important.  A play that the team likes to run when they need a basket.  You are probably going to see this play run once or twice a game.

• Straight Pick And Roll

When the Bulls aren’t hitting their shots, they like to go to the simple pick and roll, and who can blame them?  With the Ball in Derrick Rose’s hands they always have a chance to get a bucket.  Then insert Noah as the pick setter, and you force the defense to make a decision.  Help on the screen and leave Noah on the roll, or fight through the screen and take your chances with Rose.

Key Matchup

Derrick Rose vs. Mo Williams

I could have picked LeBron vs. whoever is guarding him, but he is going to get his no matter what.  If Mo Williams goes off too, the Bulls have no chance, which is why Rose needs to contain him.   On the other end, if Williams can stop Rose, they basically take away a big part of the Bulls offense.

My Prediction

Cavs In 5

I was going to go with the sweep here, but I just think that the Bulls will have one game in Chicago where everything is clicking and maybe they are able to steal a game.  Besides that game though, the Cavs are going to run away with this one.

We have all seen LeBron’s heat check threes before, you know, the ones that as he pulls up everyone says “No!  God no!” but then it goes in to a resounding “Yes!” but those usually come after a couple makes.  LeBron was so successful attacking the rim in the fourth quarter, it was just plain silly:

This was 1 of 5 plays that LeBron had where he attacked and ended up with a dunk or a lay-up.  Now, let’s look at that final play:

As Kendrick Perkins lets his shot go, he knows that he missed it and he tries to bowl his way to the rim.  Perkins ends up falling, and somehow the ball bounces right into LeBron’s hands as he is moving forward.  LeBron makes the catch already running in stride, with 3 Celtics behind him.

It looks like it is going to be a 1 on 2 fast break, but to Antawn Jamison’s credit, he puts his head down and runs the court as fast as he can.  This is important because he balances the floor for James, and forces the defense to worry about him.

James has Tony Allen on his heels, which means that if LeBron James chose to drive the basketball, he should have been able to easily get by him and get to the rim.  Instead, James decides to pull up from about 30 feet.  As he does, he sucks in Ray Allen, and that actually leaves Antawn Jamison open on a cut to the basket.

James doesn’t look for him, and he shoots a pull up three.  He misses it, going 0-8 from 3 for the game, and the Cavs lose their chance to crush the Celtics and their fans spirit.  Here it is in real time:

It almost seems like that the Celtics got in his head late, and that James wanted to “end it” so he could be able to close out the Celtics.  However, he missed, and it was the Celtics who were able to come away with the win.

I have taken a close look at this play twice before, so no need for the still images, but here is the video:

This play is fantastic, and for some reason it always works.  What makes it so brilliant is that normally when a player is standing out by halfcourt, his defender sags into help position.  Not when LeBron has the basketball.  Here, LeBron’s defender is all up on him as the pick and roll action takes place.  All eyes are on the pick and roll action except for LeBron’s defender, and this is what allows for the backscreen to set effectively.  By the time the screen is set, it is too late and LeBron already has a full head of steam going towards the rim.  He makes the catch and finishes, giving the Cavs the lead.

After baskets and FTs are exchanged, the Bucks have 8 seconds left to go the length of the court to try and tie the game.

The problem here is that two Bucks go into the same area as Luke Ridnour goes to make his pass.  The play seemed to have been designed for John Salmons as he comes off a screen to the three point line.  This is when Ersan Ilyasova inexplicably gets in the way.  Ridnour passes it to Ilyasova, but Ilyasova pulls his hands away at the last minute, and this is when the pass gets stolen.

Yes, your chances of tying the game when you are down by 3 points with 8 seconds left is pretty slim.  However, most teams practices situations like this so when the time comes to execute, they can get the best look available.  The Bucks (specifically Ersan Ilyasova) failed to execute, and they don’t even get a shot attempt up.