Last night against the Dallas Mavericks, the Minnesota Timberwolves found themselves down five points with 56 seconds left in the game with possession.  If the Timberwolves were able to get a basket here, it would be a one possession game they would be able to put pressure on the Mavericks with the hope of getting a stop.  Instead, the Timberwolves didn’t run much of a play and it resulted in a turnover:

This play starts with a double pindown screen to get the ball in Wayne Ellington’s hands.  However, after that there is nothing else happening.  You have the remaining three players standing around the perimeter and Anthony Randolph standing at the high post.  Eventually the ball gets to Jonny Flynn in the corner, and Flynn attacks the rim and makes a terrible decision to kick the ball out, leading to a turnover.

My problem here is this, what are the Timberwolves running?  It isn’t a straight isolation because Anthony Randolph is standing at the top of the key.  Was the ball supposed to go to Randolph?  Was there supposed to be a drive and kick?  We don’t know, and I think it is safe to say that the players don’t know either, and that is a problem.

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As you may notice, I haven’t been posting here at NBAPlaybook the past couple of days (don’t worry, I will recap the weekend’s events at some point).  The reason why is because I am at MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference here in Boston.  It is a two day event, and one of my favorite panels of day one was the last one of the day looking at how coaches make decisions.  Do they use their gut, or do they use data?

Bringing this back to basketball, both R.C. Buford and Del Harris (who were both a part of this panel), were in agreement when it came to making decisions based on preparation and data vs. gut feeling. For Buford, he tends to shy away from gut decisions because it makes it harder to take a step back and analyze those decisions after the fact. If you get the decision wrong, you don’t know why, but maybe more importantly, if you get it correct, you don’t know how to duplicate it.

Head on over to TrueHoop to check out the rest

The New Jersey Nets shocked the NBA world by trading Devin Harris/Derrick Favors and some draft picks for point guard Deron Williams on Wednesday.  This is a great trade for New Jersey, considering they rank just 28th in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency, scoring 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  Without changing anything, the Nets are already a better team offensively, but if coach Avery Johnson wants to take full advantage of Deron Williams and his skills, there are a few things that he can do.

Keep Current Pace

The Nets’ pace is the first clash of styles between Williams and coach Johnson.  Even back with Dallas, Avery Johnson preferred a slower pace, and he has brought that to New Jersey, as they currently have a pace of 91.8 possessions per game, good for 4th slowest in the NBA.  Deron Williams, on the other hand, is a guy who wants to get out and run, trying to score in transition.

So what pace should the Nets play at now?  In my opinion, the Nets need to stay closer to their current pace rather than turning Nets’ games into track meets.  The reason why is because Deron Williams is a worse player in transition when compared to the half court.  In the half court, Williams posts a PPP (points per possession) of 0.95, which ranks him better than 76% of NBA players (108th).  In transition, Williams posts a PPP of 1.12 good for just 191st in the NBA.

Williams struggles in transition because he tends to force the issue, trying to create transition opportunities when they aren’t there:

Here Williams gets the basketball and he starts to push it against the defense.  All five defenders are back, Williams is unable to get a lane, gets caught in the air, and ends up turning it over.

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With Jerry Sloan stepping down, there are a lot of reports that Sloan decided to step down after growing tired of butting heads with Deron.  The two have reportedly but heads all season, with things really getting heated on Wednesday.  Again, according to reports, a lot of the stuff between Williams and Sloan was due to different mindsets when it came to the issue of halfcourt offense vs. transition offense.  I don’t think I need to tell you who was in favor of what, but here is an interesting excerpt from Jack McCallum’s great piece on Sloan from yesterday:

And there are reports that his talented point guard, Deron Williams, was growing upset with the Sloan half-court system, believing that more transition offense (and a few different players) was the way for the Jazz to climb out of their doldrums.

After looking at the numbers and watching through the tape you can see why both Williams and Sloan feel the way that they do, and video evidence suggests that this (whether or not to run more) is why their relationship deteriorated.

Why Williams Wants To Run?

The Utah Jazz actually lead the league in points per possession in transition with a PPP of 1.231 on 63.1% shooting (also first in the league in transition).  However, despite the positive numbers, the Jazz don’t run all that much, with only 13.1% of their total possessions labeled as “transition” by Synergy Sports Technology, which is only the 11th most in the NBA.

So if you are Deron Williams and you are seeing your team putting up solid number both in terms of scoring and in terms of shooting percentage, you are probably going to wonder why the team doesn’t run more than it does.  Also, you are going to believe that if you run more that you can keep the efficiency levels the same.

Why Sloan Doesn’t Want To Run?

Now, Sloan has always been a guy who ran a half court offense, so some of this has to do with him not wanting to change his system (and rightfully so, if you ask me).  However, in addition to that, there are numbers that suggest running might not be the best thing for this Jazz team.  First, the Jazz turn the ball over a lot in transition, posting a team turnover percentage of 13.0% when in transition, which is just 24th in the NBA.  So while the Jazz are posting a high shooting percentage, Sloan probably thinks his team can be more efficient in the halfcourt where they turn the ball over much less (12.3% of halfcourt possessions – 7th lowest TO%), giving them more possessions.

Another reason why Sloan may not want to run is because Deron Williams isn’t a very good point guard in transition.  Williams is posting a PPP of 1.16 when in transition which is 164th in the NBA.  This is due mostly to turnovers as Williams is turning the ball over on 15.5% of his individual transition possessions which is good for a ranking of 246th.

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Last night against the Indiana Pacers, the Golden State Warriors had a 1 point lead with 0.6 seconds left after a Monta Ellis jumper. The Pacers obviously wanted to try and get a lob to tie the game, but the Warriors did a good job of protecting the rim:

Here, Brandon Rush makes a backcut to the rim, but Monta Ellis does a good job of standing between Rush and the rim. He is able to get in that position because he isn’t really worried about a three point shot. The Warriors also switch the Hansboro screen for Danny Granger, meaning that Granger’s cut to the rim is well defended. The Pacers can’t get anyone open and are forced to call a timeout.

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After a missed jumper, the Indiana Pacers gained control of the basketball up by 4 points with 42 seconds left on the clock.  There was some confusion between coach Doug Collins and PG Jrue Holiday.  The result is what John Schuhmann called a candidate for the dumbest foul of the year.  It’s hard to argue with him.

Let’s look at the actual foul itself first.  It’s a pretty dumb decision in that if you are going to take the intentional foul, it should be as early in the clock as possible.  Holiday allowed 16 seconds to burn off the clock before taking the foul.  At that point, you might as well play straight defense and hope to get the basketball back off of a missed shot.

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When we last left Kurt Rambis, he was running an ISO set for Michael Beasley down three points, only after he displayed his questionable clock management skills.  Last night against the San Antonio Spurs, Coach Rambis found himself in a similar situation, trailing by three points with 40 second left in the game.  With Michael Beasley out due to injury, Rambis was unable to run an ISO for him and was forced to draw something else up:

The Timberwolves set up in a box set and Luke Ridnour starts from the block and splits Darko Milicic and Kevin Love, who are setting screens for him to come to the basketball.

As Ridnour starts to dribble out the clock, he gets two screens set for him, one on each side (with Milicic and Love setting those screens).

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In an interesting move, Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich pulled his best players, essentially waving the white flag, with just about three minutes left and the Spurs down 10 points.  Sure, the Spurs have the Celtics tonight in the second game of a back to back, and he probably wanted to rest the starters, but I think this move had more to do with Popovich being upset at his guys, and if you watch the three defensive possessions before coach Popovice pulls his starters, you will understand why.

Possession 1: A Failed Zone

After Tim Duncan made a hook shot to cut the Knicks’ lead to five points, they retreat back into their zone:

The zone doesn’t surprise the Knicks at all, and they calmly get the ball to the middle of the court, and then swing it quickly around the perimeter and get an open three pointer out of it.

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Against the Sacramento Kings, the LA Clippers found themselves up three points and needing to defend the Kings for 5.1 seconds to secure the win.  Here is what happened:

First, let’s look at this from a Kings perspective.  You are down three points and you run a simple ISO set for your best scorer, but a player who only shoots 26% from three on the season?  There aren’t a ton of great three point shooters on the Kings, but there are a quite a few better options than Tyreke Evans, and almost daily we see a number of creative ways a coach can get an open look for three late.  Just to run an ISO, when you need a three?

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In the past, I have praised John Kuester’s ability to draw up plays and get good looks out of timeouts late.  Against the Bulls two nights ago, Kuester again drew up a solid play, however there were a few problems with it, and Charlie Villanueva was unable to get a clean look from three to tie the game:

Charlie Villanueva is initially open, but there are two reasons why he is unable to get a shot off. The first is the way that Charlie Villanueva slides up and uses the screen (He starts from a standing position, then he backpedals, then turns to face the ball. After making the catch, he needs to turn to face the basket). Also, Villanueva has a long and elongated shooting form, and by the time he is able to get into his form, it is too late.

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