If the Nuggets are to pull off the impossible and rally from a 3-1 deficit to come back and beat the Lakers, they need one of their core members to elevate his play. (Impossible may be a slight exaggeration, but the ‘highly unlikely’ just doesn’t have the same ring to it) All season long, Arron Afflalo has been a the definition of ‘steady contributor’. His blue-collar attitude and accurate shooting were one of the key reasons why Denver remained afloat despite a myriad of injuries and a blockbuster trade mid-season.
Against L.A., however, Afflalo’s has seen that steadfast marksmanship dissappear. Perhaps competing possession after possession with Kobe Bryant on the defensive end of the floor plays a role, but his shooting numbers are a far cry from his 47.1 FG% and 39.8% he posted in the regular season. In fact, Afflalo has yet to shoot over a measly 42.9% from the floor the entire series. If Denver is going to win Game 6, much less buck long shot odds and win the series, the former Bruin must find a way to regain his shooting touch.
A possible solution to this problem could be a return to the off-ball action Denver used near the end of their Game 5 victory. Afflalo’s high hoops I.Q. lead contributed to great reads off the ball that lead to a number of great looks for him. Late in the 2nd quarter, we see an example of why he is so dangerous in these situations.
Denver tries to run a double stagger for Afflalo on the left wing. Bryant, being the wily defender that he is, positions himself to deny Afflalo from getting to the screen, essentially forcing him to backcut into help. However, because Afflalo makes his read so decisively, he leaves Bryant flat-footed and beats an attempted switch from Matt Barnes. Thanks to a nifty Andre Miller pass, the play ends with a layup.
Now the threat of Afflalo moving off the ball becomes even more fearsome when he’s involved in screening action with JaVale “massive threat to slip the screen for a dunk” McGee (nickname is an unofficial working title). After running some pin down action between Afflalo and McGee in a few previous possessions, the Nuggets staff either calls for (or alerts McGee to) a slip. Thanks to a disengaged Andrew Bynum, the result is a massive dunk by McGee.
Slightly later on the 4th quarter, the two are back at it again. This time Bynum, worried about the lob and generally disinterested in defending, doesn’t show up to the level of the screen and Afflalo is able to attack the rim and draw a foul.
The final act between this screening duo is a mixture of the all three of the previous examples. Steve Blake is checking Afflalo this time, and similar to the first video, tries to deny him from getting to the screen. Bynum, still allergic to proper help positioning, doesn’t even attempt to slow or impede Afflalo in anyway. Thanks to this, Afflalo simply pins Blake on his back as he cuts across the paint and receives another pass from Miller for an easy layup.
Thus far in the series, Afflalo has found little success in isolation attacks. Mirroring the fact he ranked 195th in this category (per SynergySports) during the regular season. If George Karl can put an emphasis on screening action involving his shooting guard, they could perhaps get Afflalo back on track. Something the Nuggets desperately need if they want to beat the odds.
Let’s play a trivia game quickly. Which player currently ranks 18th in TS% (True Shooting Percentage), 2nd in Offensive Rebound Rate, 7th in Overall Rebound Rate and currently sits 9th in PER, sandwiched between Kobe Bryant and Russell Westbrook? If the names Howard, Love, Griffin or Anderson are popping into your head, guess again. Still stuck? Try Denver rookie Kenneth Faried.
Despite not getting regular minutes until the middle of February, Faried has authored four double-doubles in a span of 13 games. In three other contests during that stretch, Faried was either a rebound or two points away from the feat. That’s not too shabby for any rookie, much less one averaging just over 19 minutes a night.
How does he do it? In a word; energy. Most “experts” list things like dribbling, passing or shooting as the skills a certain player does or does not possess. Energy (and the related “hustle player” tag) gets chalked up as some intangible trait, a mere bonus for players that can also finish with both hands or shoot pull-up jumpers. ESPN’s own David Thorpe, perhaps due to his relationship with player’s like Joakim Noah and Udonis Haslem, has argued that energy is, in fact, a skill.
With Faried, his limitless supply of vigor and mentality to attack every ball coming off the rim like it owes him money, fuel his rebounding prowess. The Denver rookie also excels at gathering in out-of-area rebounds, something that separates the elite from the merely good in that category. Against the Kings last night, six of his 12 rebounds (as well as eight of his 20 points) came in the last three minutes of regulation and overtime. About a handful of those dozen rebounds were of the esteemed out-of-area variety.
Down three with 3:16 left on the clock. After Al Harrington misses on a deep jumper, Faried cuts across the lane and snatches a rebound between three Sacramento players. To top it off, he draws a foul and sinks both free throws to cut the Kings lead to one.
Down five with just over a minute left, Faried again goes to work on the glass. Andre Miller attacks the paint after the Nuggets inbound. His drive sucks up Faried’s defender (DeMarcus Cousins) enough for Faried to find an angle for a putback dunk that keeps the game within reach for the Nuggets.
Faried’s most impressive rebound came on the first possession of overtime. In the following video, you will see Faried defend a pick and roll, recover back to the body of Cousins, rotates and leaves his feet to contest a drive, then somehow gathers himself and explodes to snatch the rebound with two hands. Just an incredible effort play.
This eight minute stretch showcased why Faried has been so incredibly productive in his limited time. Since becoming a regular rotation member on February 9th, the Morehead State product has done his fair share to help the Nuggets right a listing ship. More recently, Denver has ripped off four straight wins to crawl back into the thick Western Conference playoff race. Who says energy isn’t a skill again?
After the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Denver Nuggets became a League Pass favorite. They shocked everyone by running and gunning their way 18-7 finish prompting me engage in one or two heated debates with the venerable Beckley Mason of HoopSpeak over the Nuggets’ chances to represent the Western Conference in the Finals. They failed to back me up, but when John Hollinger’s fantastic preview slotted the Nuggets as the second best team in the West, I began to ponder what it would take for one of the league’s most entertaining teams to win it all. One could point to a potential expansion of Danilo Gallinari’s offensive arsenal or muse if Ty Lawson has another level to his game, but it will most likely be the Nuggets recently re-signed Brazilian big man that keeps pushing them to new heights.
Nene is one of, if not the, best passing big men in the game. I realize that is high praise for a guy that ranked 19th in assist ratio among centers last season, but as Mark Twain once said, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” While Twain most likely wasn’t an expert on APBR metrics, there two undeniable flaws in blindly using assists or assist ratios to evaluate passing effectiveness. First and foremost, ‘hockey assists’ (the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made basket) aren’t recorded in any mainstream data. Given that it normally takes at least two passes after dribble penetration or a double team to find the open guy against today’s sophisticated NBA defenses, this is a major oversight. The guy that starts the chain of ball movement around the perimeter toward the open guy gets no value in any standard data right now but is certainly a valued asset if he does so consistently.
Secondly, outside of passes that lead to shots at the rim, assists in basketball are like RBIs in baseball. Just like a heavy hitter needs runners on base to generate an RBI, a deft passer needs guys to make shots outside the paint in closeout situations in order to garner an assist (and I say that knowing full well the Nuggets ranked first in offensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage last season). The true value of a player as a positive, ball-moving force on offense would more accurately be found by a combination of the two aforementioned concepts into a category called “Shots Created”. My “Shots Created” criteria would be defined as: a pass that leads to any type of closeout situation in which an offensive player gains an advantage for a shot or drive. It’s somewhat subjective, but closeout situations are the worst for a defensive player.
When casual/non-fans rip my interest in the NBA by pointing out that “nobody plays defense” I remind them that while some certainly don’t, part of the reason it looks like there’s no defense being played is because these guys are really, really athletic and/or skilled. When an NBA team is forced to scramble and run at an offensive player in this league, it’s a deadly proposition. That’s why traditional defensive powerhouses like Chicago, Boston and Milwaukee drill closeouts like they’re going out of style. Chase a good offensive player off the three point line and there’s a good chance of a blow-by for a dunk. Come out too cautiously and most players will bury a jumper.
Even a simple side-top-side ball reversal (which former Nugget Kenyon Martin excels at) creates a small advantage for good offensive players spaced on the weakside. The subtle transition from help to on-ball defense requires a small closeout from the defender that the offensive player can take advantage of. Here’s a look of K-Mart creating such a scenario:
Lebron James is guarding Wilson Chandler and while shifting in help, is forced to rapidly closeout on the ball after a quick reversal from Martin. Because he is rushed and the footwork is awkward, James’ takes a poor angle and opens up the opportunity for a middle drive. Chandler misses the shot near the rim, but his driving lane was created by that Martin moving the ball without hesitation from the top.
Nene does similar things for this Nuggets team and then some. One of the games I broke down for this was a March 19th tilt between Denver and Miami. In following clip is every possession that ended in a shot (make or miss) or foul that was affected by a pass from Nene. From outlet passes to hockey assists to simple ball reversals, Nene’s passing ability and unselfishness creates lots of great opportunities for his teammates. In other words, this is his “Shots Created” reel from that game:
One thing in particular action that caught my attention was the way the Nuggets react to Nene’s face-up attack in the post. For post players, very little time is spent training anything other than ways score on block. In fact, post players are praised just when they change their games enough to recognize double teams and kick the ball out for an easy shot instead of attacking one on two. Nene takes it even a step further. Because of his game, Denver actually employed a baseline drive, baseline drift concept out his post-ups this past season and will likely do so again this year. Here’s a clip:
The freeze frame comes in right on Nene’s spins toward the baseline. It showed the opportunity for Ty Lawson to slide toward the corner and ready himself for a possible shot. While this is a common perimeter movement in the league, what is uncommon is the fact that Nene actually makes the pass. There isn’t another post player in the league makes that play as quickly and efficiently as he does. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of one that makes that play in general.
His list of special passing-related talents doesn’t stop there either. Along with Marcin Gortat, Nene also is one of the best big guys in the league to pass out of a pick and roll during his dive toward the rim. Here is a clip of Nene creating another baseline drift situation off his dive on side pick and roll:
The idea that a 6’11”, 250lb big man can dive hard to the rim, catch the ball and create a shot for a teammate is one of the many subtle reasons why I argued Nene wouldn’t be overvalued on a max contract. Anyone that promotes inside out ball-movement on a team with skilled perimeter players will likely push that team toward the offensive elite just because of his willingness to move the ball, much less any other skill he possesses. That in today’s game, is worth a decent chunk of change.
It goes without saying that Nene’s passing and general unselfish nature are key to Denver’s success this season. Without a star, Denver needs to deftly move the ball around the perimeter in order to consistently find good shots in the half-court. Fortunately for the Nuggets, their longest-tenured and highest paid player will set the right tone. We’ll see how far it takes them.
As things currently stand, Ty Lawson is one of the biggest names to move from the NBA to Europe, joining the Lithuanian team, and VTB United League/EuroLeague participants, Zalgiris Kaunas. With that being said, Lawson is probably the most disappointing NBAer preforming overseas right now. So far in 10 games, Lawson’s Zalgiris Kaunas team has played to a 6-4 record (0-2 in EuroLeague/4-0 in Lithuanian League/2-2 in VTB United League) and has averaged just 7.32 points per game and 2.02 assists per game in 17.54 minutes per game (7 ppg/1.5 apg/21.5 mpg in EuroLeague – 5.3 ppg/1.5 apg/12.8 mpg in Lithuanian League – 9.5 ppg/2.8 apg/20.3 mpg in VTB United League). This drop in production is pretty surprising, especially considering the fact he is coming off of a breakout season where he played very well in Denver. So what is the reason for the drop in productivity? Well the first thing that jumps out at you is that Zalgiris Kaunas isn’t using him in the best way possible. Here’s a breakdown of some of the playcalling problems:
Too Much Transition
One of the things that doesn’t get mentioned about Lawson’s game enough is that he isn’t the greatest when it comes to transition. Maybe the fact that Lawson is a lighting quick point guard skews perception, but the numbers show that Lawson struggles when on the run (at least when compared to other aspects in his game). Last year with the Nuggets, Lawson was among the bottom half of the league in terms of points per possession in transition, posting a PPP of 1.139 when on the break. The biggest reason for the low PPP is that Lawson has a tendency to turn it over when on the break. With the Nuggets, Lawson turned it over 13.4% of the time on the break as he was in transition 22% of the time. So what did Zalgiris Kaunas do with Lawson? Put him in transition more. So far in 10 games, Lawson has been on the break 30.8% of the time. The result was more turnovers with Lawson coughing it up 20.8% of the time in transition:
With 1:59 left, the Oklahoma City Thunder trailed the Denver Nuggets by three points and were in the middle of a run. Inbounding the basketball on the baseline, the Thunder were able to do a few things of note. First, they were able to get the basketball to Kevin Durant, which is no small feat late in games. Additionally, they were able to get a wide open three point shot and knock it down to tie the game:
Looking at how the Thunder had the ball set on the baseline, Oklahoma City had James Harden inbounding the basketball, the two bigs (Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka) on the strong side, Russell Westbrook on the weakside elbow, and Kevin Durant standing in the middle of it all. As soon as the ball goes to Harden, Westbrook comes off of two screens set by both Perkins and Ibaka, flashing to the basketball and getting it thrown to him.
After Durant’s big jumper, the Denver Nuggets had the ball, looking to tie the game. After a J.R. Smith attempt got blocked, the Nuggets tried to run a play for Arron Afflalo. However, with the way the play was designed, it put Afflalo in the worst position possible:
The play starts with Wilson Chandler setting a downscreen for Ty Lawson. Lawson runs to the top of the key hard, trying to bring his defender with him.
After setting the screen, Wilson Chandler flashes to the corner for the basketball. Chandler doesn’t flash to the dead corner behind the three point line, instead Chandler is a few feet behind the three point line.
After a call to reverse a backcourt violation (which was the correct decision), the Oklahoma City Thunder were up by one point on the Denver Nuggets with just 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Eventually, Kevin Durant was able to hit an open pull up jumper that put the Thunder up three points. Durant was able to get open because of a poor decision made by the Nuggets:
As the ball goes to the trigger man, you have Russell Westbrook standing in the backcourt along the sideline, with Kevin Durant standing right at midcourt. Westbrook sprints right in front of James Harden’s face, and as that happens, Durant flashes to the backcourt. Wilson Chandler, the man covering Durant, is trying to deny him the full length of the court, so he stays with him.
With Chandler denying Durant, Durant now has the freedom to cut backdoor, which is exactly what he does, leaving Chandler behind.
In the final minutes of Oklahoma City’s game four battle against the Denver Nuggets, Russell Westbrook made a couple terrible decisions. Decisions that may or may not have costed Oklahoma City the game. And while the poor shots that Westbrook took were in large part his fault, I feel like he is getting too much of the blame.
The reason why I feel this way is because in key situations where Westbrook took a bad shot, there were other people involved (whether it be a player/coach). Looking at the two biggest plays of the game gives us examples:
On this play, the Thunder get the basketball with 52 seconds left. Trailing by two points, you want to give yourself the most chances to get the win/tie, and this means get the most possessions you can. In this particular case, the Thunder need to get a two for one. If they score, they get one more possession to go for the win. If they don’t score, they don’t have to foul to get the ball back.
Much like the Indiana Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder found themselves trying to prevent a pretty bad collapse. The Thunder were up three points with 10.5 seconds left and the ball on the side. One stop and the Thunder would be one game away from a sweep, and they were able to get it with a perfectly executed switch on a screen away from the basketball:
The play starts with Raymond Felton as the inbounder and Ty Lawson setting a cross screen for Nene. Nene uses the screen to get to the pinch-post area on the strong side.
With Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson on their team, it is no surprise that the Nuggets were one of the best team’s in the NBA in terms of Opponents’ Offensive Rebound Rate (they allowed the 5th lowest opponents’ offensive rebound rate, only allowing opponents to grab 24.57% of the available offensive rebounds). However, in game two against the the Thunder, they got killed on the defensive glass, allowing the Thunder to grab the offensive rebound 39.5% of the time. Of course, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are going to use their size to get quite a few offensive rebounds, but that wasn’t the only reason for the unusually high number. There was just a general lack of effort by the Nuggets when the ball was in the air, and that really hurt them:
Here, Russell Westbrook is walking along the baseline when the shot goes up. His man, Wilson Chandler looks at the shot and gets himself in position to play the rebound without worrying about Westbrook and his position. Because Westbrook isn’t boxed out, he is able to make a play on the basketball after it gets deflected, gaining control of the offensive rebound.
If the Nuggets are to pull off the impossible and rally from a 3-1 deficit to come back and beat the Lakers, they need one of their core members to elevate his play. (Impossible may be a slight exaggeration, but the ‘highly unlikely’ just doesn’t have the same ring to it) All season long, Arron Afflalo has been a the definition of ‘steady contributor’. His blue-collar attitude and accurate shooting were one of the key reasons why Denver remained afloat despite a myriad of injuries and a blockbuster trade mid-season. 
