Mark Twain, Nene and the Nuggets
After the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Denver Nuggets became a League Pass favorite. They shocked everyone by running and gunning their way 18-7 finish prompting me engage in one or two heated debates with the venerable Beckley Mason of HoopSpeak over the Nuggets’ chances to represent the Western Conference in the Finals. They failed to back me up, but when John Hollinger’s fantastic preview slotted the Nuggets as the second best team in the West, I began to ponder what it would take for one of the league’s most entertaining teams to win it all. One could point to a potential expansion of Danilo Gallinari’s offensive arsenal or muse if Ty Lawson has another level to his game, but it will most likely be the Nuggets recently re-signed Brazilian big man that keeps pushing them to new heights.
Nene is one of, if not the, best passing big men in the game. I realize that is high praise for a guy that ranked 19th in assist ratio among centers last season, but as Mark Twain once said, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” While Twain most likely wasn’t an expert on APBR metrics, there two undeniable flaws in blindly using assists or assist ratios to evaluate passing effectiveness. First and foremost, ‘hockey assists’ (the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made basket) aren’t recorded in any mainstream data. Given that it normally takes at least two passes after dribble penetration or a double team to find the open guy against today’s sophisticated NBA defenses, this is a major oversight. The guy that starts the chain of ball movement around the perimeter toward the open guy gets no value in any standard data right now but is certainly a valued asset if he does so consistently.
Secondly, outside of passes that lead to shots at the rim, assists in basketball are like RBIs in baseball. Just like a heavy hitter needs runners on base to generate an RBI, a deft passer needs guys to make shots outside the paint in closeout situations in order to garner an assist (and I say that knowing full well the Nuggets ranked first in offensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage last season). The true value of a player as a positive, ball-moving force on offense would more accurately be found by a combination of the two aforementioned concepts into a category called “Shots Created”. My “Shots Created” criteria would be defined as: a pass that leads to any type of closeout situation in which an offensive player gains an advantage for a shot or drive. It’s somewhat subjective, but closeout situations are the worst for a defensive player.
When casual/non-fans rip my interest in the NBA by pointing out that “nobody plays defense” I remind them that while some certainly don’t, part of the reason it looks like there’s no defense being played is because these guys are really, really athletic and/or skilled. When an NBA team is forced to scramble and run at an offensive player in this league, it’s a deadly proposition. That’s why traditional defensive powerhouses like Chicago, Boston and Milwaukee drill closeouts like they’re going out of style. Chase a good offensive player off the three point line and there’s a good chance of a blow-by for a dunk. Come out too cautiously and most players will bury a jumper.
Even a simple side-top-side ball reversal (which former Nugget Kenyon Martin excels at) creates a small advantage for good offensive players spaced on the weakside. The subtle transition from help to on-ball defense requires a small closeout from the defender that the offensive player can take advantage of. Here’s a look of K-Mart creating such a scenario:
Lebron James is guarding Wilson Chandler and while shifting in help, is forced to rapidly closeout on the ball after a quick reversal from Martin. Because he is rushed and the footwork is awkward, James’ takes a poor angle and opens up the opportunity for a middle drive. Chandler misses the shot near the rim, but his driving lane was created by that Martin moving the ball without hesitation from the top.
Nene does similar things for this Nuggets team and then some. One of the games I broke down for this was a March 19th tilt between Denver and Miami. In following clip is every possession that ended in a shot (make or miss) or foul that was affected by a pass from Nene. From outlet passes to hockey assists to simple ball reversals, Nene’s passing ability and unselfishness creates lots of great opportunities for his teammates. In other words, this is his “Shots Created” reel from that game:
One thing in particular action that caught my attention was the way the Nuggets react to Nene’s face-up attack in the post. For post players, very little time is spent training anything other than ways score on block. In fact, post players are praised just when they change their games enough to recognize double teams and kick the ball out for an easy shot instead of attacking one on two. Nene takes it even a step further. Because of his game, Denver actually employed a baseline drive, baseline drift concept out his post-ups this past season and will likely do so again this year. Here’s a clip:
The freeze frame comes in right on Nene’s spins toward the baseline. It showed the opportunity for Ty Lawson to slide toward the corner and ready himself for a possible shot. While this is a common perimeter movement in the league, what is uncommon is the fact that Nene actually makes the pass. There isn’t another post player in the league makes that play as quickly and efficiently as he does. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of one that makes that play in general.
His list of special passing-related talents doesn’t stop there either. Along with Marcin Gortat, Nene also is one of the best big guys in the league to pass out of a pick and roll during his dive toward the rim. Here is a clip of Nene creating another baseline drift situation off his dive on side pick and roll:
The idea that a 6’11”, 250lb big man can dive hard to the rim, catch the ball and create a shot for a teammate is one of the many subtle reasons why I argued Nene wouldn’t be overvalued on a max contract. Anyone that promotes inside out ball-movement on a team with skilled perimeter players will likely push that team toward the offensive elite just because of his willingness to move the ball, much less any other skill he possesses. That in today’s game, is worth a decent chunk of change.
It goes without saying that Nene’s passing and general unselfish nature are key to Denver’s success this season. Without a star, Denver needs to deftly move the ball around the perimeter in order to consistently find good shots in the half-court. Fortunately for the Nuggets, their longest-tenured and highest paid player will set the right tone. We’ll see how far it takes them.
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