Nene is one of, if not the, best passing big men in the game. I realize that is high praise for a guy that ranked 19^th in assist ratio among centers last season, but as Mark Twain once said, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” While Twain most likely wasn’t an expert on APBR metrics, there two undeniable flaws in blindly using assists or assist ratios to evaluate passing effectiveness. First and foremost, ‘hockey assists’ (the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made basket) aren’t recorded in any mainstream data. Given that it normally takes at least two passes after dribble penetration or a double team to find the open guy against today’s sophisticated NBA defenses, this is a major oversight. The guy that starts the chain of ball movement around the perimeter toward the open guy gets no value in any standard data right now but is certainly a valued asset if he does so consistently.

Secondly, outside of passes that lead to shots at the rim, assists in basketball are like RBIs in baseball. Just like a heavy hitter needs runners on base to generate an RBI, a deft passer needs guys to make shots outside the paint in closeout situations in order to garner an assist (and I say that knowing full well the Nuggets ranked first in offensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage last season). The true value of a player as a positive, ball-moving force on offense would more accurately be found by a combination of the two aforementioned concepts into a category called “Shots Created”. My “Shots Created” criteria would be defined as: a pass that leads to any type of closeout situation in which an offensive player gains an advantage for a shot or drive. It’s somewhat subjective, but closeout situations are the worst for a defensive player.

When casual/non-fans rip my interest in the NBA by pointing out that “nobody plays defense” I remind them that while some certainly don’t, part of the reason it looks like there’s no defense being played is because these guys are really, really athletic and/or skilled. When an NBA team is forced to scramble and run at an offensive player in this league, it’s a deadly proposition. That’s why traditional defensive powerhouses like Chicago, Boston and Milwaukee drill closeouts like they’re going out of style. Chase a good offensive player off the three point line and there’s a good chance of a blow-by for a dunk. Come out too cautiously and most players will bury a jumper.

Even a simple side-top-side ball reversal (which former Nugget Kenyon Martin excels at) creates a small advantage for good offensive players spaced on the weakside. The subtle transition from help to on-ball defense requires a small closeout from the defender that the offensive player can take advantage of. Here’s a look of K-Mart creating such a scenario:

Lebron James is guarding Wilson Chandler and while shifting in help, is forced to rapidly closeout on the ball after a quick reversal from Martin. Because he is rushed and the footwork is awkward, James’ takes a poor angle and opens up the opportunity for a middle drive. Chandler misses the shot near the rim, but his driving lane was created by that Martin moving the ball without hesitation from the top.

Nene does similar things for this Nuggets team and then some. One of the games I broke down for this was a March 19^th tilt between Denver and Miami. In following clip is every possession that ended in a shot (make or miss) or foul that was affected by a pass from Nene. From outlet passes to hockey assists to simple ball reversals, Nene’s passing ability and unselfishness creates lots of great opportunities for his teammates. In other words, this is his “Shots Created” reel from that game:

One thing in particular action that caught my attention was the way the Nuggets react to Nene’s face-up attack in the post. For post players, very little time is spent training anything other than ways score on block. In fact, post players are praised just when they change their games enough to recognize double teams and kick the ball out for an easy shot instead of attacking one on two. Nene takes it even a step further. Because of his game, Denver actually employed a baseline drive, baseline drift concept out his post-ups this past season and will likely do so again this year. Here’s a clip:

The freeze frame comes in right on Nene’s spins toward the baseline. It showed the opportunity for Ty Lawson to slide toward the corner and ready himself for a possible shot. While this is a common perimeter movement in the league, what is uncommon is the fact that Nene actually makes the pass. There isn’t another post player in the league makes that play as quickly and efficiently as he does. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of one that makes that play in general.

His list of special passing-related talents doesn’t stop there either. Along with Marcin Gortat, Nene also is one of the best big guys in the league to pass out of a pick and roll during his dive toward the rim. Here is a clip of Nene creating another baseline drift situation off his dive on side pick and roll:

The idea that a 6’11”, 250lb big man can dive hard to the rim, catch the ball and create a shot for a teammate is one of the many subtle reasons why I argued Nene wouldn’t be overvalued on a max contract. Anyone that promotes inside out ball-movement on a team with skilled perimeter players will likely push that team toward the offensive elite just because of his willingness to move the ball, much less any other skill he possesses. That in today’s game, is worth a decent chunk of change.

It goes without saying that Nene’s passing and general unselfish nature are key to Denver’s success this season. Without a star, Denver needs to deftly move the ball around the perimeter in order to consistently find good shots in the half-court. Fortunately for the Nuggets, their longest-tenured and highest paid player will set the right tone. We’ll see how far it takes them.

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Too Much Transition

One of the things that doesn’t get mentioned about Lawson’s game enough is that he isn’t the greatest when it comes to transition.  Maybe the fact that Lawson is a lighting quick point guard skews perception, but the numbers show that Lawson struggles when on the run (at least when compared to other aspects in his game).  Last year with the Nuggets, Lawson was among the bottom half of the league in terms of points per possession in transition, posting a PPP of 1.139 when on the break.  The biggest reason for the low PPP is that Lawson has a tendency to turn it over when on the break.  With the Nuggets, Lawson turned it over 13.4% of the time on the break as he was in transition 22% of the time.  So what did Zalgiris Kaunas do with Lawson?  Put him in transition more.  So far in 10 games, Lawson has been on the break 30.8% of the time.  The result was more turnovers with Lawson coughing it up 20.8% of the time in transition:

It is worth mentioning that Lawson could improve in transition, he’s playing on a new team trying to adjust to new officiating (that travel call for instance in that clip might not be a travel in the NBA).  However, with that being said, Lawson has shown a history of turning the basketball over in transition so it seems silly to give him the basketball and ask him to run right off the bat, asking him to run and get out in transition before even being comfortable with his teammates or with the style of play.

Not Enough Spot Ups

One of the more underrated aspects of Ty Lawson’s game is that he is a very good spot up shooter.  In Denver, Lawson spotted up 22.7% of the time, posting a PPP of 1.144 (putting him in the top 13% among all NBA players, Lawson is in the top 4% among all NBA players in all catch and shoot situations) on 46.2% shooting:

Lawson’s form might be a little funky, but he does a great job of making the catch and quickly getting the ball off.  That fast release combined with an ability to get his feet set means that he can hit that shot consistently.  With that as a strength, you would expect to see Zalgiris Kaunas try to take advantage of this and use Lawson as a spot up shooter from time to time.  Instead, Lawson has taken a spot up jumper just 10 times in 8 games (going 3-8).

Comparing Lawson’s spot up opportunities in the NBA to his opportunities in Europe, there is a pretty apparent difference.  While most of Lawson’s catch and shoot jumpers in the NBA came off of dribble penetration from a second ballhandler (either Raymond Felton or Anthony Carter).  With Zalgiris Kaunas, all of Lawson’s catch and shoot opportunities came from either BLOB sets, post entries, or ball reversals and with those actions taking place less often, it means that there are less opportunities for Lawson to spot up, have the ball come his way, and knock down a jumper.

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It’s fair to say that Ty Lawson’s European experience hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start, but all hope is not lost.  If Lawson starts running less and starts spotting up more, while getting more acclimated to his teammates and to officiating, he can return to old form.  However, with that being said, if Zalgiris Kaunas continues to use Lawson in this manner, they are going to have to explain his poor play to fans.

Looking at how the Thunder had the ball set on the baseline, Oklahoma City had James Harden inbounding the basketball, the two bigs (Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka) on the strong side, Russell Westbrook on the weakside elbow, and Kevin Durant standing in the middle of it all.  As soon as the ball goes to Harden, Westbrook comes off of two screens set by both Perkins and Ibaka, flashing to the basketball and getting it thrown to him.

Now with Westbrook holding the ball on the wing, Durant comes off of a screen set by Serge Ibaka.  Afflalo is forced to trail Durant, giving Westbrook a passing lane.

As soon as Durant gets the basketball in his hands, the Thunder clear out the middle for him.  Harden heads straight for the corner and Perkins/Ibaka clear out of the lane as well.

What this clear out has done was give Durant a lane to drive.  He attacks Afflalo and gets to the elbow where the three Thunder players wait.  This forces Ty Lawson to step up and help.  As soon as that happens, Harden slips to the corner.

Seeing the help come, Durant does a great job of kicking the basketball out to James Harden in the corner.  As Lawson tries to close out, Ibaka sets a screen on him, preventing him from getting to Harden.

This allows Harden to square up, make the catch, and knock down the wide open jumper.  Here is the play in real time:

Teams love to be physical with Durant as he comes off of screens late in game.  With the Thunder first giving the ball to Durant and then to Westbrook, it sort of forces the defense to worry about something else in addition to Durant coming off of the screen.  This gives Durant the space to get the basketball.

The best aspect of this play is Ibaka setting the screen for Harden.  I don’t know if this was a set play or not (I keep going back and forth on it), but Durant forcing Lawson to help basically sets up Lawson for the screen.  Great job all around by the Thunder.

The play starts with Wilson Chandler setting a downscreen for Ty Lawson.  Lawson runs to the top of the key hard, trying to bring his defender with him.

After setting the screen, Wilson Chandler flashes to the corner for the basketball.  Chandler doesn’t flash to the dead corner behind the three point line, instead Chandler is a few feet behind the three point line.

After passing it to Chandler, Afflalo jab steps towards the middle of the court and quickly cuts to the basketball, getting a handoff from Chandler.

Something like this is good in theory, but the problem with it in this situation is that it naturally draws the defense in, permitting them to trap.  That is exactly what happens here, as both Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook use the two out of bounds lines to trap Afflalo in the corner.  To make matters worse, the Thunder’s bench players are standing along the baseline/sideline, so it is sort of like a 5 man trap.  Here is the play in real time:

Afflalo somehow gets out of the trap and gets a shot off, but he should have never in that position in the first place.

As the ball goes to the trigger man, you have Russell Westbrook standing in the backcourt along the sideline, with Kevin Durant standing right at midcourt.  Westbrook sprints right in front of James Harden’s face, and as that happens, Durant flashes to the backcourt.  Wilson Chandler, the man covering Durant, is trying to deny him the full length of the court, so he stays with  him.

With Chandler denying Durant, Durant now has the freedom to cut backdoor, which is exactly what he does, leaving Chandler behind.

As Durant cuts backdoor, he has plenty of space to work with.  With the man denying the inbounder sinking off to help on Westbrook, Harden has all the space needed to make the pass to Durant.

Durant makes the catch, takes a dribble, and knocks down the easy jumper before Nene can close out on him.  Here is the play in real time:

With a short clock situation (under 5 seconds left on the shot clock), I don’t really understand the need for Chandler to deny Durant in the backcourt.  If he wants to make the catch back there, let him, and just keep your body between Durant and the rim.

Chandler doesn’t do that, and the result is a jumper that forces the Nuggets to try and get a three to tie the game.

The reason why I feel this way is because in key situations where Westbrook took a bad shot, there were other people involved (whether it be a player/coach).  Looking at the two biggest plays of the game gives us examples:

On this play, the Thunder get the basketball with 52 seconds left.  Trailing by two points, you want to give yourself the most chances to get the win/tie, and this means get the most possessions you can.  In this particular case, the Thunder need to get a two for one.  If they score, they get one more possession to go for the win.  If they don’t score, they don’t have to foul to get the ball back.

The start of this play is a big problem with the Thunder taking way too long to get in their set.  By the time they actually are doing anything that resembles getting into an offense, there is just 12 seconds left on the shot clock.  At 10 seconds left on the shot clock (36 seconds overall), Durant gets the basketball with Raymond Felton covering him.  Instead of shooting, he gives the ball back to Westbrook, who hesitates, takes a dribble, and then shoots.

Westbrook is at fault here for two reasons, with the first being it takes him way too long to get into the offense.  To me, it is as if he is trying to run the shot clock all of the way down, instead of trying to secure the two for one.  Also, upon making the catch from Kevin Durant, it needs to be a catch and shoot three.  The hesitation and dribble throws him off (in addition to wasting more time), and that can contribute to the miss.

However, Kevin Durant is also at fault.  The Thunder are running a play designed to get a switch and take advantage of the mismatch.  They force the Nuggets into switching Ty Lawson onto Durant.  They get the mismatch they are looking for and when Durant catches the basketball he doesn’t look to take advantage.  With 10 seconds left on the shot clock, if Durant wants to shoot it and perserve the two for one, he can, and it would be a good shot.  Instead, he gives it back to Westbrook, and I have to assume he wasn’t expecting this, and that hesitation is a pretty good indication of it.

The next big play that Westbrook is getting hammered for is his three point shot down three basically in transition:

Here, Westbook gets the basketball from James Harden, dribbles it up, and fires a three point shot, one that he airballs.  Terrible decision and a terrible shot for sure.  However, there are others to blame here as well, specifically coach Scott Brooks.

Normally coaches don’t call timeout in these situations because the coach wants to catch the defense off guard.  However, because of some extra pushing and shoving (in addition to an armbar), the play was blown dead and the ball was reset on the baseline.  Any advantage was taken away right there.  Instead of calling timeout, Brooks let his guys play.

Westbrook took a poor shot, yes, but were the Thunder in anything close to looking like a set?  Not really now, Durant was standing in the corner defended, and nothing else was really going on.

Their next possession trailing by four points the Thunder did call a timeout, and this is what they came up with:

Now is a three point make guaranteed for Durant coming out of a timeout?  No (especially considering Durant tends to get shoved out of position late in games and the defense isn’t really getting into him hard up 4 vs. when up 3 – wanting to prevent the foul and such).  Still, the Thunder were the best team coming out of timeouts, so why not call a timeout and give your guys a chance?

The play starts with Raymond Felton as the inbounder and Ty Lawson setting a cross screen for Nene.  Nene uses the screen to get to the pinch-post area on the strong side.

Instead of having Kevin Durant (who was covering Nene), fighting through the screen, the Thunder simply switch it.  While this switch doesn’t have much of an effect, it does show the Thunder’s strategy for this possession.

After making his pass to Nene, Felton comes in and sets a downscreen for J.R. Smith over by the wing area.

Instead of fighting through the screen, Thabo Seflolosha just picks up Raymond Felton.

The other part of the switch is James Harden picking up J.R. Smith.  The play was originally designed for Smith to come off of Felton’s screen and quickly come off of a screen by Ty Lawson right at the three point line.  Without a switch, this play would have worked because you would have had Sefolosha trailing Smith going through the screens.

However, because of the switch, Harden is in fantastic position to defend Smith off of the basketball.  The original play is designed for the screen to be set right at the three point line (where Smith is running along the three point line), however because of Harden and his position, Smith is forced to run his path further out, allowing Harden to get through.

Look at what we have here now.  Lawson is a little farther out than he would like and Smith is much farther away from the path he would want to take, allowing for Harden to get through the screen easily.

With no other option, Nene is forced to make the pass to Smith who takes a tough contested three point shot that misses.  Here is the play in real time:

Notice how J.R. Smith is forced to stop and go after coming off of Felton’s screen, instead of running straight off of it (as it was designed).  That throws everything off and kills the play.  It is also interesting to note Oklahoma City’s roster.  Kevin Durant is the center as he is playing with 4 guards.  The reason?  To switch along the perimeter while preventing mismatches on the outside.  If your strategy is to switch (while protecting a three point lead) a lineup like this is the best one to  execute.

Here, Russell Westbrook is walking along the baseline when the shot goes up.  His man, Wilson Chandler looks at the shot and gets himself in position to play the rebound without worrying about Westbrook and his position.  Because Westbrook isn’t boxed out, he is able to make a play on the basketball after it gets deflected, gaining control of the offensive rebound.

On this play, Serge Ibaka is in position to set a screen for Kevin Durant, but Durant takes an early three pointer.  Here, Ibaka actually fights through two Nuggets’ defenders (Wilson Chandler and Kenyon Martin), who don’t try to box out, instead opting to run to the front of the rim.  Ibaka beats the two defenders to the basketball and gets the easy putback.

On this play, you want to watch Kenyon Martin and Serge Ibaka, who are on the weakside of the basketball.  As the shot from Westbrook goes up, Kenyon Martin turns his head and runs straight to the rim without even looking for his man, Ibaka.  This allows Ibaka to get to the rim, get in position, and rebound the basketball and kick it out.

Finally, on this play, the Thunder are working in transition and Kendrick Perkins gets terrific position on the block.  He doesn’t get the basketball and the shot goes up, and when the shot goes up, nobody tries to get Perkins out of position or get in front of him.  Perkins doesn’t have to move as the ball falls into his hand and the Nuggets are forced to take the foul.

With Perkins and Ibaka, the Thunder have a front line that is going to grab a few offensive rebounds.  Because of that, you can’t give up even more opportunities to them due to lack of effort, that is what happened in game 2 and if it continues, this could become a sweep.

Here is what we looked at for the upcoming Thunder-Nuggets series:

• Offensive Breakdown
• Defensive Breakdown

Check back later today when I look at both the Spurs-Grizzlies and Mavericks-Blazers series in depth.

• Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (14th)
• Opp. TS%: 53.5% (11th)
• Opp. Assist Rate: 19.24 (8th)
• Opp. Turnover Rate: 12.95 (19th)
• Defensive Rebound Rate: 73.64 (17th)
• Block Rate: 6.1 (4th)
• Opp. Free Throw Rate: 30.7 (20th)
• Opp. Three Point Rate: 19.6 (3rd)

Oklahoma City Thunder - Strengths

Defending The Roll Man

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to stopping the roll man on the pick and roll.  They rank 2nd (only behind the Boston Celtics) in terms of PPP allowed, giving up just 0.906 points per possession on 43.5% shooting.  On the pick and roll the Thunder are determined to get the ball out of the ball handlers hand and keeping the roll man out of the lane.  To do this, you have to be willing to give up something.  What the Thunder are willing to give up is the pick and pop.  The Thunder are willing to live with opposing bigs taking long twos at the top of the key, and this season they have proven this is an effective strategy to force misses:

Here, Brandon Jennings comes off of the ball screen and Kendrick Perkins (the man covering the screener) basically switches onto Jennings.  As this happens Russell Westbrook comes over the top of the screen.  With Serge Ibaka protecting the paint, they are giving the screener a free pass to pop out for an open jumper.  He does this and misses.

Here is another example, and you can see the Thunder utilizing the same defensive strategy.  On this particular play, you can really see the Thunder’s strategy in full effect because as the ball goes to Jason Thompson, James Harden steps to him but doesn’t close-out.  This means they are willing to give up the jumper, which Harden takes and misses.

Post Defense

According to the numbers, the Thunder are an ok defensive team in the post, ranking 20th in the league in terms of points per possession and giving up 44.1% shooting.  However, this time the numbers don’t really tell the whole story because the Thunder’s interior defense has become a strength ever since Kendrick Perkins stepped on the court for the Thunder.  The arrival of Perkins has allowed Serge Ibaka to step away from on-ball responsibility in the post and concentrate more on helping in the paint and bothering shots on the weakside.  So when a team tries to post-up the Thunder, you have Kendrick Perkins beating up the posting player, allowing Ibaka to range over and block the shot from the weakside:

Here, Nene gets the basketball in the post and tries to make his move against Kendrick Perkins.  Perkins is so physical and so tough to get by that it takes him a little bit longer to make his move.  This allows Ibaka the time to come over and time Nene’s shot attempt well enough to get the big block.  In addition to forcing post players into taking a longer time (this is because Perkins is beating up his man), it seems that most post players’ focus is to make a move to beat Perkins and they are so focused on that, they aren’t really thinking about Ibaka coming over for the block.

On this play, Nikola Pekovic gets the ball in the post and makes his move against Perkins.  Pekovic has kinds of trouble even getting a shot up against Perkins, and by the time he does, Ibaka has already been in position to get the weakside block for a few seconds.

Again, Perkins is the man defending on the ball in the post, this time against JaVale McGee.  Again, Perkins is able to beat up the man he is defending as he tries to work in the post.  McGee tries to make his move towards the middle of the court, but Perkins is able to cut that off and force him to spin baseline, right into Ibaka who is coming from the weakside for the block.

This defensive strategy in the post is perfect because it allows both big men to utilize their best assets.  Perkins is incredibly strong and he is able to defend players one-on-one in the post.  Ibaka has tremendous athletic ability and he is at his best when he is playing help defense.  Perkins playing one-on-one with Ibaka ranging over is incredibly tough to stop.

This is going to be especially important considering that Nene and the Nuggets are very good in the post.  Also, he is a good passer out of double teams up top, and with the Thunder able to stop Nene one-on-one, they are taking away one of the Nuggets’ biggest strengths.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Weaknesses

Closing Out On Shooters

It is interesting, the Thunder are very good at stopping the pick and roll, but their commitment to do so actually leads to their weakness, defending shooters that are spotting up.  The Thunder are 15th in the league when it comes to PPP allowed in Spot-Up situations, giving up 0.991 points on every possession on 40% shooting.  The two biggest culprits for the Thunder are Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook.  Both players are in the bottom 30% of the league when it comes to PPP allowed in spot-up situations, allowing 1.06 PPP.  Both players get beat because of their tendency to over help in pick and rolls they are not involved in.  On spot-ups off of pick and rolls, teams are shooting 44.8% on Sefolosha and 48.5% on Westbrook.

On this play, you have the screen coming on one wing with Sefolosha on the other.  The screen is a poor one, but Sefolosha gets caught sinking in anyway.  This opens up the kick out pass and Sefolosha’s man knocks down the three.

This defensive play from Russell Westbrook is almost identical to Sefolosha’s.  Again, it isn’t the greatest screen and the defender (Kevin Durant) actually gets through it untouched.  That doesn’t keep Westbrook from helping, and that opens up the kick out for the made three.

Denver Nuggets – The Numbers*

• Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (17th)
• Opp. TS%: 54.2% (13th)
• Opp. Assist Rate: 20.45 (25th)
• Opp. Turnover Rate: 12.66 (25th)
• Defensive Rebound Rate: 75.43 (5th)
• Block Rate: 4.4 (26th)
• Opp. Free Throw Rate: 29.6 (12th)
• Opp. Three Point Rate: 24.4 (26th)

Denver Nuggets - Strengths

Transition Defense

Just because the Denver Nuggets play at a really fast pace, creating 98 possessions per game (2nd most in the NBA) doesn’t mean they give up transition baskets.  In fact, the Nuggets are the best team in the league when it comes to PPP allowed in transition.  The Nuggets give up just over 1 PPP (1.05 to be exact) and 53.1% in transition (also lowest in the league).  How are the Nuggets able to get stops in transition?  They emphasize getting back on defense instead of going for the offensive rebound (Their ORR of 23.85 – 27th in the league – is proof).  Because they are able to get back, the Nuggets are able to force teams into jumpers rather than allowing them to get to the rim:

Here, the shot on the outside goes up with four Denver Nuggets getting back on defense.  Once the 5th Nugget realizes he is boxed out, he also gets back instead of trying to fight through the screen.  The result is all five Denver Nuggets back inside the three point line, protecting the lane as Earl Watson tries to penetrate.  Watson is forced to take a jumper on the wing, a shot that he misses.

Here is a similar situation, as Kenyon Martin starts to penetrate and goes up for the shot, the rest of the team is getting back on defense.  Martin misses and is now trailing the play, but that is OK because the rest of the team is back protecting the paint.  So when the Mavericks try to attack the rim themselves, they are forced into a miss.

Denver Nuggets - Weaknesses

Fouling In Isolation Situations

Looking at points per possession, the Denver Nuggets are 22nd in the NBA giving up 0.872 PPP on 40% shooting.  Considering that the Thunder have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, things can get messy for the Nuggets in ISO situations.  That being said, Durant and Westbrook going off is expected, so in my opinion the biggest problem would be the other guys in isolation situations.  Specifically, J.R. Smith defending James Harden.  I really think that Smith can go at Harden on the offensive end, but if he is on the court, he has to defend Harden.  We already looked at it, but Harden is very good at drawing fouls.  J.R. Smith on the other hand isn’t very good at not fouling:

Much like Trevor Ariza for the Hornets, Smith can’t really stay on his feet when given a pump fake.  In all of these situations Smith bites on the pump fake, getting caught in hte air, where he is forced to commit the foul.  If Harden does this once or twice to Smith, Smith will find his way to the bench and the Thunder are able to dodge a bullet.

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*All numbers come from the fantastic website Hoopdata.com