Add those two factors (that the Warriors are good at foul shooting and that the Raptors are good at 3 point shooting), and I think that the Warriors made the correct decision in fouling late.  I also think they did a good job of executing.  As we saw in the college ranks during the Xavier-Kansas State game, when you are fouling intentionally there is a chance that you foul when the opposing team takes a three, giving them three foul shots.  Let’s look at the the three fouls the Warriors take:

On this first play, the Raptors have no idea that the Warriors are going to foul.  Because of that, I would have liked to seen the Warriors wait a little bit before taking the first foul.  However, you don’t want to take any chances, and with Jarrett Jack moving away from the basket, there are worst times to take the foul.

This next play is interesting.  The Raptors now know that the Warriors want to foul, and they try to counter what the Warriors are doing.  They quickly inbounds the ball to Bargnani who quickly throws it in to Turkoglu.  If you watch closely, Turkoglu has a chance to fire up a quick three, he hesitates slightly, and the Warriors get the foul.

On this final one, the Warriors foul as soon as the catch is made.  This was smart because Bosh quickly threw up a shot, trying to get himself three foul shots.  What I would almost like to see here is teams fake a foul, trying to bait a player into an awful shot.  That could get dangerous though.

In the end, we shouldn’t let the Raptors’ steal and near miss change our minds.  Fouling up three was appropriate in this situation because the Raptors are a good 3 point shooting team and you don’t want to give them a good look.  On their end, the Warriors are a good free throw shooting team so they can live with having the game be extended.

In my opinion, there shouldn’t be a blanket rule that all coaches follow when it comes to fouling up three.  It all depends on the situation.  Let’s say you are the Cavs or the Pistons (the two worst foul shooting teams), I wouldn’t recommend they foul up three, because as the game continues to be extended, there is a better chance that the team misses a foul shot and end up with a 2 point game instead of a 3 point game.  In addition, if you are playing a team like the Nets (one of the worst three point shooting teams and a team that can’t really run a play late), you don’t want to foul up 2, because it is more than likely they won’t get a good game tying shot attempt up.

Possession 1 – Blazers Steal

After Portland made a couple free throws to cut the lead to 6 points, they dropped back into a zone defense.  It isn’t a straight up zone though, as it appears to be more of a match-up zone.  If you watch Blazers’ players as the Warriors make cuts, you can see the Blazers “handing off” players, making sure everyone knows where they need to be.  You can tell the Warriors look a little confused, and because of that they aren’t in sync.  The pass to the middle is late, allowing for the defense to get their hand on the ball and get the steal.  3-0.

Possession 2 – Transition Three For Rudy Fernandez

Continuing from the play above, the ball ends up into Andre Miller’s hands and he pushes it down the court.  Fernandez runs with Miller, filling the lane and spotting up for the three.  Since Andre Miller has shown the ability to get into the paint, he is able to draw the man responsible for Fernandez, getting him the open look.  6-0.

Possession 3 - Stephen Curry Missed Three

This match-up zone that the Blazers were running really gave the Warriors a ton of trouble the final 6 minutes of the game.  Up until this point, the Warriors were getting into the lane whenever they wanted, whether it was in transition or in the half court.  Right before this play, Stephen Curry tried to drive the lane and throw a kick-out pass.  It was deflected out of bounds.  It really had an effect on him, because the next time he caught the ball, he pulled and shot a bad three.  He had no interest in trying to get into the paint. 6-0.

Possession 4 – Rudy Fernandez Three In The Half Court

Shooters like Rudy Fernandez just need to see the basketball go in once and they are in a rhythm.  Here, Andre Miller once again uses his size to get into the paint, and when he does so, he gets attention from help defenders.  As Miller posts up, Anthony Morrow, the man defending Fernadez, sprints into the paint.  Fernandez does a great job of sliding into an open space and giving Andre Miller a lane for the pass.  Miller make a great pass and hits Fernandez for the wide open three.  Just like that, the game is tied.  9-0.

Possession 5 – Anthony Morrow Missed Three

After Fernandez’s three pointer, both teams exchanged some pretty bad possession and for about 2 minutes the only point that was scored was a LaMarcus Aldridge free throw.  After an offensive foul from Aldridge, the Warriors had a chance to get a go-ahead basket:

The Warriors don’t take advantage of it though.  Once again, it is just two passes around the perimeter, and a three pointer.  There is actually a missed assignment here by the Blazers as Reggie Williams cut into the lane uncovered, but Anthony Morrow doesn’t even look inside and jacks up a three.  So it has been around 4 minutes since the Blazers started playing there zone, and there hasn’t been 1 meaningful bounce of the basketball inside the lane.  10-0.

Possession 6 – Monta Ellis’ 6th Foul

The reason that previous missed three was so important is because Andre Miller grabs the rebound and pushes it down the court.  Again, he goes inside against a smaller Warriors guard (this time it is Monta Ellis).  As Ellis tries to body Miller up, he picks up a foul, his 6th of the game.  So now on of the few Warriors willing to attack the basket and try to get into the lane has fouled out.  Miller hit both foul shots that resulted from the foul as well.  12-0.

Possession 7 – Another Missed Three For The Warriors

Even after all of the poor possessions on both ends of the court for the Warriors, they are still only down three points.  Here, the Warriors actually get a good look.  They use dribble penetration to suck in the Blazers’ defense and then kick it out to Steph Curry for the open three pointer.  He just can’t knock it down.  This shows you have effective attacking the basket can be.  It is a shame this is the only time they decided to do it.  12-0.

Possession 8 – Forced Jumper

After Curry’s missed three, the Warriors get a stop on the defensive end and bring the ball up still down three.  A good possession can get them right back into the game.  That doesn’t happen though.  C.J. Watson gets the ball to start the offense in the half court.  He dribbles it to the wing and wants to swing it back to Steph Curry, however, the Blazers switch things up and deny him.  Watson panics, uses a screen (that the Blazers switch because of their match-up zone), takes the ball to the elbow and shots a contested jumper with 13 seconds left on the shot clock.  At this point of the game, this is your biggest possession and the Warriors don’t even pass the ball…once…now if it was in your best players hand, it might be understandable.  Watson is your 4th or 5th option on offense though, so that isn’t what you want.  Credit Portland for their defense here, but this is such a poor decision by C.J. Watson.  12-0.

Possession 9 – LaMarcus Aldridge’s And 1

Coming off of Watson’s miss, the Blazers decide to flatten it out (put four players along the baseline with one ballhandler) with the ball in Roy’s hands.  The main purpose here it to kill some clock (as he dribbles the shot-clock down to 10), but they are also looking for Roy to create, and that is exactly what he does.  He penetrates to the right, forces help to come and kicks the ball out to Andre Miller.  The closeout comes too hard at Miller, giving him the baseline.  He takes it, forces help to come, and finds an open LaMarcus Aldridge who finishes with the foul.  15-0.

Possession 10 – Blazers Offensive Rebound

After Steph Curry hits a three to cut the Blazers’ lead down to three points, the Blazers have the ball with about 48 seconds left:

The Warriors, not needing to foul, play straight up defense here, and they actually get the shot they want.  As Roy drives (from the same flat set), the Warriors force him to kick it out to Aldridge for the baseline jumper.  He misses it, but the Warriors are unable to secure the rebound.  At first look, it seems like just a bad bounce for the Warriors, but I disagree with that.  The Warriors are in the correct position for the rebound, but watch them as the ball goes up.  Nobody is putting a body on any Blazer, they just stand waiting to try and time their jump.  With the Blazers being bigger than the Warriors, they are able to get a hand on it and the corral the ball.  15-3.

Possession 11 – Silly Foul From Watson

After the Blazers get the ball back in their possession, there is a three second differential between the shot-clock and the game clock.  When you are in this situation, you have to decide whether you are going to foul and extend the game, or hope to get a stop, call a timeout (the Warriors did in fact have one), advance the ball to half-court, and try to get a three.  For most of the possession, it seems that Watson is going to be content to let Andre Miller dribble out the clock, but for some unknown reason, he gambles and tries to get a steal, fouling Miller in the process.  Watson let 19 seconds run of the clock, and then fouled.  He probably thought he could get the steal, but if you look at it from the second angle, there wasn’t really any opening to try and do that.  Not smart at all.  As Miller makes both free throws, he clinches the game for the Blazers, who got their first win in a long time at Golden State.  17-3.

Now, it might look like a simple ISO play, but I really like it.  The Heat show a screen on one side with Udonis Haslem, take it away, and bring a screen on the opposite side with Jermaine O’Neal.  It might not look like much, but look at how the Warriors are set up to defend both screens.

The top shot is the screen that the Heat show and take away.  The Warriors defender is in proper position to defend the screen.  The bottom shot is from the screen that is actually set, Ronnie Turiaf is too far back to hedge out on the screen, and the result is an open step back jumper from Wade.

After the Warriors miss a three pointer, the Heat come back down the court with a one point lead.  Again, it is Dwyane Wade bringing it up.

The beauty of Dwyane Wade bringing it up is that he can build up steam.  If Wade catches the ball and comes out of triple-threat on the wing, there is a chance you can prevent him from getting into the lane.  When he brings it up with the purpose of driving the basketball, there isn’t really anything anyone can do about it.

That is what happens here.  Wade is able to go by his defender without any trouble.

And when Dwyane Wade gets into the paint, there is going to be a crowd.  That is what happens here, and as the Warriors crowd him, he kicks it out to a wide open Quentin Richardson who knocks down the three, giving Miami a 4 point lead.

As Chauncey brings up the basketball, Carmelo gets to one of his favorite spots on the court.  As this happens, the two Nuggets bigs clear out to the other side.  Carmelo Anthony is going to be setting a “screen” for J.R. Smith.  I put the word screen in quotes, because Carmelo isn’t going to be headhunting or anything like that.  He is just going to stand there, and Smith is going to run around him.

What is really impressive about this play is that the Nuggets isolate Devin George here and force him in a tough decision.  He is the man covering Carmelo and he is denying him.  As they run J.R. Smith off of Carmelo, George can do one of two things.  He can drop back and help on Smith’s backdoor cut , or he can stay attached to Carmelo’s hip.

This is great design by the Nuggets, because any decision Devin George makes is the wrong one.  If George drops back to help defend the lob, this lets Carmelo make the catch in his sweet spot and it turns into an ISO play for him (as J.R. Smith continues his cut to the other corner).  If George sticks with Carmelo, the lob opens up.

And that is exactly what happens.  George decides to deny Carmelo the whole way through the play, leaving the backdoor cut wide open.  The Warriors bigs don’t help matters.  As you can see here, as the pass goes up, neither of them are in proper position to help out.

Plus, as the pass is in the air, neither of them move, and Smith is able to make an uncontested catch and dunk.  As I said in the intro, this was a pretty big play.  The Warriors crowd was starting to get going, but this play sucked the air out of them and sparked the 13-0 run that gave the Nuggets the win.  Here it is in real time:

Lamar Odom pulls down a rebound and brings it up court.  This is a pretty common sight if you are a Lakers’ fan.  Odom is a terrific rebounder, but he also has the ball handling ability to bring the ball up the court as well.

What is different is when it gets to the halfcourt.  Instead of getting the ball into Kobe’s hands, Odom holds onto it and and Pau comes over to set the screen for him.  Now this isn’t a “true Pick & Roll,” it is just designed to try and get Gasol in a good post position.

As you can see, Odom doesn’t really try to penetrate off the pick, he just gives it a second, and gets the ball inside to Gasol.  Now look where he catches it.  Since the Warriors have nobody to bang with him inside he will be able to take his time and getting into scoring position.

Remember where he caught it?  Well, look where he is now.  Right in the block, and he pulls off a very nice spin move and finishes with the lay-in.

Now I am not saying that they don’t go into Gasol late when Kobe is in the game, they do, but it always seems to be a second or third option (and not that I blame Kobe, who is a great scorer).  Without Kobe in the game, it is obvious that the Lakers are actively looking to get the ball to Pau late, and against the Warriors (a team with no real big man), that makes sense.

We are going to first look at the defensive end with around 40 seconds to go in the game.  The Nuggets just got their second offensive rebound of the possession, and up by 3, if they get another bucket they can clinch the game:

As the Nuggets run a pick and roll, I want you to focus your attention on Andris Biedrins.  Right now he is attached to Nene, because he can’t camp in the lane for fear of a defensive three seconds call.

As Carmelo rolls, he has a pretty clear lane to the basket, but Andris Biedrins comes over and helps hard.  You don’t usually see this because most defenders are worried about their man getting the pass after the help.

I like Biedrins theory here.  Forget about Nene, Carmelo Anthony is dangerous with the basketball, if he passes it to Nene, he just needs to trust his teammates behind him on the rotation.  Andris Biedrins gets the block that leads to a jump ball.  So instead of being down 5, the Warriors are down 3 with a chance to get the ball.  After Carmelo tries to steal the tap, the Warriors have the ball with a chance to tie:

On the inbound, you are going to have Tolliver running to the corner and Steph Curry coming to the basketball.  As all of that goes on, Corey Maggette is just going to turn and take a step to the basketball to provide an outlet option.

Because Steph Curry is a dangerous three point shooter, J.R. Smith needs to stay with him no matter how far out he is, so when Monta Ellis makes the pass to Maggette, there is now a lane for Monta to cut through.  This is a great play design, because all of the action is happening on one side of the court, and that frees up the other side.

After Monta makes the pass, he cuts towards the open area with Andris Biedrins setting him a screen.

Monta makes the catch and pulls up from three.  Nene is there, but he doesn’t have the time to get his hands up and challenge the shot.  So Monta calmly knocks down the three.

Overtime

Offensive rebounds hurt the Warriors late in the game (on the block above, that was the Nuggets third attempt at the basket), but in overtime it hurt them the most.

As J.R. Smith pulls up for the jumper, you have Kenyon Martin (who set a pick for Smith) crashing the boards.  The Warriors have pretty good initial position with three guys on the inside ready to box out anyone who tries to get the offensive rebound.

That good position is given up as both Warriors go to box out Nene, allowing for Kenyon Martin to walk into offensive rebounding position untouched.

Kenyon Martin gets the rebound and kicks it out.

Chauncey Billups gets the kick out and knocks down a three to give the Nuggets the lead.

Stephen Curry hits a three:

The first thing to notice is that Monta Ellis is bringing the basketball up.  Late in games Steph Curry is usually the one bringing up because the Warriors want to get Ellis the ball in a scoring position.  This time though, Ellis is bringing the ball up, so you should know that there is a play in the works for Steph Curry.

As Monta gives the ball to Andris Biedrins, he then cuts.  The real action is on the other side of the court though.

Devin George cuts backdoor using two screens, and right after that cut, you have Steph Curry coming off a screen set by Corey Maggette.

As Curry comes off the screen he makes the catch and he is wide open to knock down the three.

J.R. Smith hits a three:

This final play is where the Nuggets end up taking the lead for good.

This is a play the Nuggets like to run late.  They have Carmelo setting a pick for Chauncey Billups.  As that is going on, you have a double screen being set for J.R. Smith on the weak side in case there is nothing available on the pick and roll.  That is the beauty of the play, Smith is the third option (after the roll and Billups doing something off the screen), so it is hard to focus your attention on him because if you do, Carmelo our Billups will end up with a basket.

You can see, as Billups comes off the screen, Steph Curry is staring at him.  This allows for Smith to float to an open area without Curry defending him.  Also, Martin is able to sneak in for a screen because Curry isn’t paying attention.

As Billups gets to the top of the key, there is nothing open.  Not the roll, not the shot off the pick, so he turns to his third option which is J.R. Smith popping out while getting two screens.

J.R. Smith makes the catch and knocks down the open three.

Bonehead Play Of The Week

Monta Ellis’ foul

I know that you could argue that there wasn’t a foul here, and if there was, the contact was minimal and it should of been let go.  I actually agree with that, but late in the game you shouldn’t even put the refs in position to make the call.  The funny thing is that both Monta and Maggette jumped while challenging the shot when they both should have stayed planted to the ground with their hands up.  Here is the video:

Best Play Of The Week

Celtics Buzzer Beater To Send The Game Into Overtime

This was a great play…great design and great execution.  Doc drew up the perfect play to get the lob…the way he had Big Baby flash to the sideline to bring Jermaine O’Neal with him, just awesome.  Also, Paul Pierce’s pass was right on the money: