Of the numerous attributes attached to Ricky Rubio so far in his young career, flair is undoubtedly near the top of that list. From his passion to his wrong-foot finishes, Rubio’s style is meant for entertainment. Or is it?

Lost in clever passing arsenal he displays on a nightly basis is that everything Rubio does serves a distinct purpose. Every one-hand lob or behind the back pass, while certainly aesthetically pleasing, is facilitated by a necessity to find the appropriate time-space window to deliver the ball. Rubio’s usage of the no-look pass lies in that same vain and was evident again in the Houston game.

Late in the second quarter, the Wolves reset after Anthony Randolph rebounds his own missed jumper. He passes back out to Rubio and the two immediately engage in a step-up screen toward the baseline. It is here where Rubio’s no-look savvy strikes.

As we break it down, we see Love moving up toward the slot position just as Randolph is getting set to screen. Love’s defender, Sam Dalembert, is forced to move away from the basket with him. Dalembert is typically used to being stationed near the basket, doing things like jamming any dive off a ball screen that comes his way. This a responsibility he refuses to relinquish despite the Wolves off-ball alignment in this instance.

In the next picture, we see Dalembert intently focused on watching Rubio’s eyes coming off the pick and roll, as he anticipates possibly having to help off onto Randolph should his defender (Scola) have trouble recovering. Seeing that Rubio is locked in on Randolph, Dalembert pays no attention to his man (Love) settling in beyond the arc.

As Rubio delivers his no-look pass, we see his head completely turned away from Love with both eyes focused on Randolph. Dalembert, even after the ball is out of Rubio’s hand, is still staring at where the young Spaniard is looking.

The end result of the play is that wide open 3-point shot for Love. Here is a look again at the play slowed down.

Just like a quarterback looking off a safety downfield, Rubio uses his eyes to move a defender and create an opportunity for a score. So while it’s easy to attribute Rubio’s no-look passes to his flair, it’s forgetting that there is, in fact, a practical application of his flamboyance that has nothing to do with entertainment. Rubio is seemingly the place where substance and style meet.

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Watching passing savant Ricky Rubio take on Tom Thibodeau’s strongside overload schemes was must watch TV (at least for my warped mind) last night. Pitting young Rubio’s flair, passing accuracy and court vision versus an attacking defense designed to hem the ball in on one side of the court just oozed possibilities.

The Bulls entered the game with their usual side pick and roll (PNR) coverage of downing (sending the ball handler baseline). Against middle PNRs, the Bulls looked to force Rubio away from the screener, most times toward his left hand. The results were mixed as Rubio dished out 12 assists but also gave the ball away 5 times. We’ll take a look at both the good and bad from Rubio last night.

One of the ways the Wolves countered the Bulls downing side ballscreens was having the screening set an angle with his butt to the baseline (same as a step-up screen). This allowed them to still screen (or more slow) the on-ball defender (who has jumped to Rubio’s high shoulder) as well as allow Rubio the option to crease (change direction and get back to the middle of the floor) off the PNR.

Early in the second quarter, Rubio engages in a side PNR with Anthony Randolph. Randolph sets up a step-up screen on Rubio’s defender John Lucas. After a delayed roll, Randolph does a good job of reading space and staying high near the elbow. Rubio changes speeds to keep Lucas off-balance all while keeping Randolph’s defender, Omar Asik, engaged on him. It’s an incredibly nuanced maneuver and allows him to find a nifty passing angle to Randolph near the elbow.

The next clip is one of the craftiest PNR moves I’ve ever seen. Randolph and Rubio engage in a PNR again, this time in the middle of the floor. With the Bulls forcing Rubio left, Randolph adjusts his screening angle so his butt is facing the baseline, allowing Rubio the opportunity to crease and get back toward the middle of the floor.

Rubio wraps around Randolph, who responds by diving straight down the lane-line toward the rim. Rubio then pulls back on his dribble while changing speeds, then re-attacks to pull Boozer up toward him and creates a small pocket in which to make a sweet drop-off pass to Randolph at the rim.

Despite the previous successes, Rubio didn’t always get the better of Thib’s defense last night. Late in the game Rubio makes two costly turnovers. Early in the third quarter, Rubio and Randolph run a step-up screen on the right side of the floor. This time, the Bulls’ defense get exactly what they want out of their coverage. As Rubio drives toward the baseline, he tries to float a long skip to the opposite wing towards Kevin Love. Ronnie Brewer, guarding Luke Ridnour in the baseline corner, reads the play and streaks in front of Love for a steal.

Near the end of the third quarter, Randolph and Rubio get the better of the Bulls again. Randolph teams with Love to set a double high ballscreen in the middle of the floor. The Bulls look to force Rubio away from the screen toward the right sideline. Rubio responds by blowing by his on-ball defender and attacking Carlos Boozer.

Love fades near the opposite elbow and Randolph reads Rubio’s drive and makes a delayed roll to the rim. Rubio’s hard push engages both his on-ball defender, Derrick Rose, and Boozer. With two defenders committed to him and Joakim Noah tightly hugging the sweet-shooting Love, Randolph’s hard dive to the rim is uncontested. The result is a basket plus a foul on a late-rotating Noah.

This final clip showcases that Rubio still is a young kid that needs to refine his decision-making. Randolph and Love again come over to set another double high PNR in the middle of the floor. The Bulls influence Rubio to his left and away from the screen. This time, Rubio is baited into a sub-optimal decision.

Rubio dribbles left toward the wing and launches a 3-point shot with 17 seconds still left on the shot clock (and with Taj Gibson also in his face). With his passing prowess and dribble penetration being his primary strengths and his shooting still a work in progress that is undesirable result for a possession.

Rubio’s combination of court-vision, creativity and flair will always lead to a relatively high turnover rate. He will simply attempt passes and find angles that very few rarely even see and that will lead to a higher rate of mistakes. However, eliminating shots like that is something that will help accelerate his maturation as a player. (That balance is quite the conundrum because Rubio needs to prove he can make those shots, so the defense respects the threat, but not actually take them. For an example of this see: Nash, Steve)

All in all, Rubio in just his 10th game had an excellent showing against an elite defensive unit and certainly has fans in Minnesota ready to see what comes next.

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One of the major story lines during the first week of the NBA season has been the arrival (and play) of Spanish sensation, Ricky Rubio.

Rubio landed in Minnesota with great expectations. He has long been in the NBA spotlight (we started profiling him at DraftExpress when he was 14 years old), and his strengths and weaknesses largely remain the same as when he was drafted 5th overall two years ago.  Nothing that we’ve witnessed over his first three games (including one preseason) has given us any sort of new revelation on his game, but it has now been displayed to a much larger audience with and against NBA players.

I’m going to take a look at two areas of Rubio’s game that can help the Timberwolves right away; transition and pick and rolls. That isn’t to suggest that Rubio is a complete player in these areas. After all, one can’t expect a 21 year old point guard playing his first games in the NBA to be without flaws. However, it is clear Rubio’s exceptional court vision in transition and in pick and roll sets are going to be positive additions to the Timberwolves team.

Here is a quick look at Rubio in transition. In the photo, we see Derrick Williams streaking down the lane with Wesley Johnson flanking him. Oklahoma City’s Eric Maynor is in position to stop the ball while another defender, Daequan Cook runs with Anthony Tolliver. This leaves Thunder beard aficionado James Harden to have to defend both Williams and Johnson.

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During his press conference where he announced that he was finally firing Kurt Rambis, David Kahn talked about when he started his search for a new coach (because he didn’t start it yet) he was going to look for a coach who was better suited for an uptempo style.  The whole thing sounded as if Kahn had one man in mind.  Sure enough, a few days later Don Nelson chimed in (From The Mercury News):

Nelson would gladly trade those breezy Hawaiian trade winds for Minnesota winters and the chance to coach again.

“It’d be a great fit,” Nelson said. “I love Minnesota.”

…

Nelson and Kahn talked for about 40 minutes by phone last week and plan to talk again this week.

“They have an opening,” Nelson said, “and I don’t have a job.”

Nelson has a reputation as a coach who is tough on rookies and young players.

“Yeah, I don’t like rookies that can’t play,” he said. “Rookies that can play, I play ‘em a lot.

“There’s talent there. Maybe they just need to change the tempo and play a little faster there.”

Don Nelson and the Minnesota Timberwolves, a match that only makes sense in David Kahn and Don Nelson’s head.  However, since these are the people making the decision, it is almost an inevitable that this is going to happen.  When it does, there is no doubt in my mind that Nelson is going to bring his insane uptempo offense.  The question to ask is, does Nelson have the pieces to make it work?  Maybe better, can the players in Minnesota play well in Minnesota’s style.

Our first instinct is to say no, especially considering that they had the fastest pace in the league (96.5 possessions per game, according to Basketball Reference), but only posted the 24th highest offensive rating(104.2 points per 100 possessions).  However, looking at the numbers, the Timberwolves didn’t actually get out in transition as much as you would original believe.  According to Synergy Sports, transition possessions made up 10.7% of Minnesota’s offense, a number that was good for 23rd in the NBA.  So how was their pace so high?  Bad shots early in the clock and turnovers.

Nelson on the other hand ran a true run and gun team in Golden State.  During his final season with the Warriors, Nelson had his team posting a pace of 100.4 (which was obviously 1st in the NBA that season.  17.8% of the Warriors’ possessions were transition possessions (posting a PPP of 1.13, good for 18th in the NBA).  So if Nelson does come to Minnesota, their style of play would definitely be different in that they would be running more.

This doesn’t mean that Minnesota was a good running team this past season, far from it, posting a PPP of 1.1006, good for 28th in the NBA.  However, bringing in new pieces in Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams, I thought it would be interesting to break down the Timberwolves roster and see if a transition offense would really work in Minnesota:

The Good

Ricky Rubio

Even though Rubio struggled when looking for his own offense in transition last season (1.0 PPP in transition, bottom 22% among international players – though 2 years ago, Rubio even had success creating for himself, posting a PPP of 1.31), when creating for others in transition Rubio was incredibly successful, posting an Assit to Turnover ratio of 4.5 in transition:

Rubio’s strengths in transition is that he is always a willing passer and he always has his head up when running.  When pushing the ball in transition, Rubio likes get the ball in the middle of the court and attack, putting pressure on the defense, forcing the defense to collapse and allowing the wings and trailers to fill in and get open.  Whether it is a pass to the rim or out at the three point line, Rubio does a very good job of spotting the open man and getting the ball to him, creating open opportunities for his teammates.  With the type of athletic wings that Rubio will have in Minnesota, he could have a lot of success creating in transition playing under Don Nelson.

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For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands.  With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.

Past Editions: Kyrie Irving (#1) | Jan Vesely (#6) | Bismack Biyombo (#7)

After a steller freshman season, Derrick Williams came back to Arizona for his sophomore season and played even better, taking his team all the way to the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual champion Connecticut by just two points.  On the strength of this sophomore season, Williams was drafted with the second pick overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Using game tape from this past season, we are able to identify the strengths and weaknesses of Williams.

Strengths

Outside Shooting

This past season, Derrick Williams was one of the best outside shooters at his position.  He is also top six nationally in the two advanced shooting metrics, posting an eFG% of 65.0% (6th nationally) and a TS% of 69.0% (4th nationally).  What is interesting is that Williams went from having a poor three point shooting percentage his freshman year (25%) to having a very good three point shooting percentage his sophomore year (56.8%).  So what happened?  Williams was allowed to shoot more threes.  His freshman year, Williams attempting just 16 threes the entire season, making only four of them.  In my opinion, this is a very small sample size, so small that you can’t really put any value in the percentage.  His sophomore year, Williams attempted 74 threes, making 42 of them.

Now could this be a fluke?  Sure, but looking at the tape, you see the same smooth repeatable shooting form in both his freshman year and his sophomore year, telling me that Derrick Williams’ shooting success his sophomore year was the real deal:

Williams is a set shooter, and his form is very easy, very smooth, and it is the type of shooting form that can allow Williams to take it a few steps back and transition to shooting behind the NBA three point line (probably not at the same rate as college though).

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Last year, we took a look at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas.  With Ricky Rubio’s announcement that he is joining the Minnesota Timberwolves and coming to the NBA this upcoming season, I thought it was a perfect time to start up the overseas scouting report again.

Ricky Rubio is the much talked about 20 year old, drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves two seasons ago when he was 18 years old.  Despite his stock being very high when he was drafted, a combination of a buyout and his lack of excitement about the Timberwolves resulted in Rubio staying in Spain (but switching teams) for the past two seasons.  During that time, Rubio’s stock has taken a pretty big hit, mainly because of his “play” with Regal Barcelona.

Before we get started with the scouting report, I do want to discuss the drop in Rubio’s assists and everybody’s reaction to it.  With Rubio being more of a true point guard than a scoring point guard, everyone seems to be pointing at the drop in assists/40 minutes from his final season with DKV Joventut to this past season with Regal Barcelona and it causes Rubio’s critics to say, “Obviously, this is a sign Rubio is getting worse.  He peaked at 18!”  However, if you look at how Rubio is used, instead of looking at just the numbers, you notice there were other reasons for his his drop in assists:

Note:  This numbers are coming from Rubio’s ACB play over the past three seasons.  2008-2009 with DKV Joventut and 2009-2011 with Regal Barcelona

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Last night against the Dallas Mavericks, the Minnesota Timberwolves found themselves down five points with 56 seconds left in the game with possession.  If the Timberwolves were able to get a basket here, it would be a one possession game they would be able to put pressure on the Mavericks with the hope of getting a stop.  Instead, the Timberwolves didn’t run much of a play and it resulted in a turnover:

This play starts with a double pindown screen to get the ball in Wayne Ellington’s hands.  However, after that there is nothing else happening.  You have the remaining three players standing around the perimeter and Anthony Randolph standing at the high post.  Eventually the ball gets to Jonny Flynn in the corner, and Flynn attacks the rim and makes a terrible decision to kick the ball out, leading to a turnover.

My problem here is this, what are the Timberwolves running?  It isn’t a straight isolation because Anthony Randolph is standing at the top of the key.  Was the ball supposed to go to Randolph?  Was there supposed to be a drive and kick?  We don’t know, and I think it is safe to say that the players don’t know either, and that is a problem.

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Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Houston Rockets trailed by two points with about 50 seconds left.  The Timberwolves had the basketball, and if the Rockets were able to get a stop, they would be able to have a chance to win/tie the game.  Unfortunately for them, that didn’t happen.  The Rockets’ defenders got mixed up when defending a pick and pop and it left Kevin Love wide open for the three:

The play starts with Kevin Love trying to set a screen for his point guard, Jonny Flynn.  Flynn however does a terrible job of using the screen, leaving way too much space between his man and the screener (in addition to hesitating for 5 seconds or so).  Love doesn’t set the strongest screen either.

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For this edition of My Clipboard series over at Basketball Prospectus, I took a look at Kevin Love’s rebounding and wanted to identify what makes it special:

As we approach the midway point of the NBA season, Kevin Love is enjoying his best season as a professional, with aWARP of 9.1 and a Win Percentage (Win%) of .703 percent. Last year, he had a WARP of 8.3 and a Win% of .658. While an increase in minutes is allowing Love to show off his game (37 minutes per game versus 28.6 minutes per game last year), Love’s superb play on the glass is the main reason why people are finally starting to take notice of his talent.

When it comes to grabbing rebounds, Love is among the best in the NBA. At this point in time, when you think of rebounding, you instantly think of Kevin Love. Love is currently third in the NBA in rebounding percentage (TR%), grabbing 23.7 percent of all available rebounds. Only specialists Reggie Evans and Marcus Camby have been better.

As always, thanks for taking the time to check it out!

When we last left Kurt Rambis, he was running an ISO set for Michael Beasley down three points, only after he displayed his questionable clock management skills.  Last night against the San Antonio Spurs, Coach Rambis found himself in a similar situation, trailing by three points with 40 second left in the game.  With Michael Beasley out due to injury, Rambis was unable to run an ISO for him and was forced to draw something else up:

The Timberwolves set up in a box set and Luke Ridnour starts from the block and splits Darko Milicic and Kevin Love, who are setting screens for him to come to the basketball.

As Ridnour starts to dribble out the clock, he gets two screens set for him, one on each side (with Milicic and Love setting those screens).

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