On this play, Jason Terry gets the basketball and Dirk Nowitzki comes over and sets a ballscreen for him.  Earlier in the series (and this game even), the Blazers were switching this screen and struggling to stop it.  So here, the Blazers are going to try and hedge the screen.  LaMarcus Aldridge takes a big step out as Nicolas Batum (the man defending Terry) works over the screen.

The problem with the hedge is that it opens up the entire lane for the roll.  Now usually Nowitzki pops in these situation, but the path to the rim is so wide open that he decides to roll.

Terry does a good job of hitting Nowitzki, and Nowitzki is able to finish in traffic as he is getting hit.  Here is the play in real time:

In my opinion, hedging works when the screener isn’t a scoring threat.  When a guy like Dirk Nowitzki is setting screens though, you are basically inviting the offense to get him the basketball in a position to score.  Here is another look at the play:

The only thing different here is the ball handler.  This time, J.J. Barea is the man using the Nowitzki screen.  Again Aldridge hedges out, putting himself in a natural trail position, and the Mavericks are able to take advantage and get Nowitzki the basketball, where he can finish.

This pick and roll is a lot different than the pick and roll the Lakers saw when playing against the Hornets, but it is going to be interesting to see how they defend it.

So far, that has held true as there was zero zone possessions in game 1, and just one zone possession in game two (run by Portland).  With the way that the Mavericks’ ran their zone offense on that possession, you can pretty much guarantee that the Blazers won’t be running anymore zone the rest of the series:

The Mavericks don’t have a “set” zone offense, rather it is just a concept that they execute very well.  They like to stick their big, in this case Tyson Chandler, at the top of the key in the middle of the zone and then just pass the ball around the perimeter and cut off of him in a wheel action.  Here, Jason Kidd passes the basketball to Shawn Marion on the wing and then cuts through with Dirk replacing him at the top of the key to get the basketball.

Chandler continues to shadow the basketball, always remaining a threat to get the basketball in the underbelly of the zone.  Here, as Kidd completes his cut the basketball goes to Nowitzki at the top of the key.

Nowitzki gets the basketball to Jason Terry, who quickly gets it to Kidd on the wing as he completes his cut.  Then we really get to see the wheel action in motion.  Shawn Marion cuts to the opposite corner, with Nowitzki replacing him, Terry replacing Nowitzki, and Jason Kidd dribbling the basketball back to Jason Terry’s spot.

With the Blazers playing a match-up zone, all of this rotation leads to a match-up problem with Andre Miller defending Dirk Nowitzki.  Now this is what I mean when I call the Mavericks’ zone offense a concept rather than a “set.”  The Mavericks continue this wheeling motion until they find a situation they like, and they take advantage.  Here, everyone spots the mismatch (you see Jason Terry pointing it out).  To take advantage, Chandler goes to the lowpost, freeing up the high post for Nowitzki to flash into.

Nowitzki makes the flash and gets the basketball from Jason Kidd in the pinch post area with Andre Miller on his back.

Kidd is able to easily take advantage and make a quick move to the rim.  Miller’s only option is to take the foul and send Nowitzki to the line.  Here is the play in real time:

The key to this is Dallas being so comfortable when being faced with the zone.  They quickly recognize it and quickly get into their offense.  Dallas was able to get themselves in a position to score so easily, I will be shocked to see Portland bring out the zone again this series.

The play starts with Jason Kidd bringing the basketball down the court along the sideline.  Once Kidd gets the ball to the wing, Nowitzki sets up at the top of the key to set a ballscreen.

Kidd uses the ball screen and Dirk pops out towards the three point line instead of rolling.  With Nowitzki popping out, LaMarcus Aldridge tries to beat Nowitzki to the spot to take away the passing lane.

Once Kidd picks up the basketball, it looks like he is going to attempt to pass it out to Dirk.  However, Nowitzki is just setting up Aldridge to cut backdoor.

Aldridge lets Nowitzki get by him as Kidd threads the ball through a few defenders to Nowitzki.  With the weakside cleared, the help defense is too far away to get to Nowitzki and challenge the shot.

The result is Nowitzki getting hit hard and drawing the foul, where he would hit the two free throws.  Here is the play in real time:

Great design here by the Mavericks and even better execution by Kidd and Nowitzki.  If Nowitzki goes straight to his cut (and basically turns it into a roll), the defense reads it and defends it.  Popping out first before cutting forces the defense to respect it and sets up the play.

Here is what we looked at for the upcoming Mavericks-Blazers series:

• Offensive Breakdown

The playoffs start today!  Predictions coming next!

• Pace: 93.1 (20th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.6 (8th)
• True Shooting Percentage: 56.5% (4th)
• Assist Rate: 23.20 (2nd)
• Turnover Rate: 13.60 (21st)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 24.08 (26th)
• Free Throw Rate: 28.6 (21st)
• Three Point Rate: 27.4 (3rd)

Dallas Mavericks - Strengths

Zone Offense

With the Portland Trailblazers playing zone defense the second most in the NBA (behind the Mavericks), zone offense is going to be an important aspect in this series.  Over the course of the season, the Dallas Mavericks have shown that they can beat the zone just as well as they can play it.  The Mavericks have scored 135 points in 123 zone possessions for a PPP of 1.098, ranking them second in the NBA.  The key to the Mavericks’ zone is sharp ball and player movement around the perimeter (with a big at the high post) until eventually they are able to get an open look.  The beauty of this offense is the fact there is no set “rules.”  Everyone has a responsibility, but they can do a few different things.

What you have here is four players on the outside with a big at the high post.  The player at the high post looks for a soft spot in the zone to sit and get the pass, but he can also screen the top of the zone (either with a ball or off ball screen).  The four perimeter players basically wheel around as if they are on a string.  Once a pass gets made, the passer cuts through, and the rest of the offense rotates off of that.  This movement and spacing combined with quick ball movement makes it tough for the defense, and in this case Jason Terry is able to get the open jumper on the baseline.

Here it is again.  Here, you have the same basic principles with a few more things added (some dribbling and a handoff).  Many people think that any kind of dribbling against the zone is bad, and while that is part true, if you are dribbling in the flow of the offense (vs. pounding the ball on the floor, holding onto it, looking for something to do) it can be pretty effective here.  The above play is a perfect example.  Jason Terry gets the basketball at the top of the key as the rest of the offense rotate around him, keeping the offense’s shape.  Kidd cuts right in front of him and gets the handoff, again dribbling.  Much like Terry, Kidd is dribbling with a purpose and he attacks the defense, forces them to step up, leaving Shawn Marion open for the lay-up.

Here it is yet again, and this time Peja Stojakovic is able to get a wide open three point shot at the top of the key that he knocks down.

Here is one more look.  Again you have the cutting around the perimeter, but this time the ball goes to Tyson Chandler at the high post.  What makes this so dangerous is that everyone is cutting around him it is hard for the defense to focus on him with the rest of the team cutting.  Rodrigue Beaubois gets open, gets the basketball, and is easily able to get all of the way to the rim.

Post Up

In addition to being successful against the zone, the Dallas Mavericks are the best post-up team in the NBA in terms of points per possession.  Dirk Nowitzki gets almost half of these post up opportunities (49.7% to be exact), and that makes sense given that he is in the top 7% of the NBA when posting up.  Nowitzki likes getting the ball on the right block (56.6% of the time) and when he does make the catch, he loves to turn to the middle (48.1% of the time) and when he turns to the middle, he takes a jumper (80% of the time).  On these jump shots when he turns to the middle, Nowitzki is putting up a PPP of 1.30 on 59.5% shooting (which puts him in the top 2% of the league).  Obviously, Nowitzki’s height is what makes him so tough to defend:

Here, Nowtizki gets to where he wants to be on the court, and when that happens, Nowitzki simply turns around and shoots it over his defender.  The fact that Nowitzki can fade in addition to his length makes this shot practically unstoppable.

Even when you push him off of his spot, Nowitzki still is pretty damn hard to stop.  This is because I am fully confident that Nowitzki can hit it from the three point line.  Here, he gets the basketball around the three point line, backs his man down a bit, then hits his turnaround jumper.

Dallas Mavericks – Weaknesses

Finishing Off Of Cuts

If there was one aspect where the Mavericks struggle, it is finishing off of basket cuts.  If you are looking for a culprit, that would be Shawn Marion.  Despite posting a PPP of 1.09, putting him in the bottom 1/4 of the league, Marion gets a bulk of the Mavericks’ cut possessions, getting 32.2% of them.  Something that I have noticed is when Marion makes the catch, he has a tendency to bring the basketball down before going up with it, allowing the defense to recover and challenge the shot effectively:

On both of these plays, Marion gets the basketball cutting to the rim in a pretty good position.  However, instead of going straight up with it, he takes a split second the bring the ball down.  This might look insignificant, but in the NBA that is enough time for a defender to recover, which happens in both cases.

Portland Trailblazers – The Numbers*

• Pace: 90.6 (30th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.6 (10th)
• True Shooting Percentage: 53.3% (22nd)
• Assist Rate: 20.48 (14th)
• Turnover Rate: 12.62 (6th)
• Offensive Rebound Rate: 29.46 (3rd)
• Free Throw Rate: 27.8 (27th)
• Three Point Rate: 22.8 (12th)

Portland Trailblazers - Strengths

Lobs

If you would ask anyone about the Portland Trailblazers offense, something you are going to hear from just about everybody is the word “lob” (while I don’t have exact numbers the Blazers love running lob plays, especially for their big man LaMarcus Aldridge.  What is so special about the Blazers and their lobs is that they can do it from a number of different situations.

Here, Aldridge sets a pindown screen and forcing his man to hedge out.  Once that happens, Aldridge heads straight to the rim and gets the lob pass.

These next two lobs come off of the threat of Aldridge in the post.  In both instances, Aldridge is posting his man with the defender trying to front him.  Both defenders get a little too high and Aldridge is able to read it and roll straight to the rim (he might be the best in the league at this).

Shooting Off Of Screens

In addition to lobs, the Portland Trailblazers are very good when they have their wings coming off of screens away from the basketball.  The Blazers are 8th in the NBA in terms of PPP, scoring 0.945 points per possession.  The best cutter off of the screen for the Blazers is Wesley Matthews, especially when he cuts off of screens on his right, specifically when he curls off of the screen to the rim.  Matthews is in the top 2% of all NBA players when this happens, posting a PPP of 1.3 of 73% shooting.  Matthews is so good at curling off of the rim because he is able to read his defender successfully, only curling screens when it is wide open:

In both instances above, Matthews feels his man trailing him opening up the curl.  In addition, in both of these cases, the screener’s man doesn’t hedge off of the screener, creating a wide open lane.  Matthews gets the ball and is able to finish easily.

Portland Trailblazers - Weaknesses

Zone Offense

Earlier in the post, I mentioned that the Mavericks and the Blazers are the two teams that use the zone the most in the NBA (Dallas is first, Portland is second).  A couple days ago, I mentioned on Twitter that I thought the zone wouldn’t used because both teams would be prepared.  That is before I looked at the numbers and saw that Portland is very poor at beating the zone.  In terms of PPP, the Blazers are 29th in the league, scoring just 0.762 points every zone possession.  The reason why they struggle so much is because they don’t do something that Dallas does very well, zipping the basketball around:

In both of these clips, you see the Blazers passing the ball around, holding it too much.  The reason why everyone is holding the basketball is because nobody really knows what to do.  It is pass, hold, look, and pass.  With everyone holding the basketball you are allowing the defense to rotate, get set, and then rotate again, rather then keeping the defense moving.  In addition, you see a lot of pointless dribbling (compare it to Terry/Kidd dribbling).  I am surprised that the Blazers are this poor at the zone considering they use it so much they should understand what works and what doesn’t work.  If the Blazers continue to hold the basketball against Dallas and their zone, they could be in trouble.

—

*All numbers come from the fantastic website Hoopdata.com

Play 3 (1 Point) – Jay Triano/Toronto Raptors

Coming out of a SLOB set, the Raptors get the ball into Jerryd Bayless.  Bayless gets the ball into Andrea Bargnani, and it looks like the Raptors are working a two man game (in fact they ran this play to start the game).  However, this is not the case as Sonny Weems cuts through the middle and Leandro Barbosa comes off of a pindown screen open behind the three point line.

Play 2 (2 Points) – Nate McMillan/Portland Trailblazers

Being down by 5 points with 13 seconds left, Nate McMillan needed to get a quick basket for his team, preferably a three.  He ran a nice stack set from the side that got exactly that.  You have the three Blazers shooters curling off of LaMarcus Aldridge, who stays in place.  At the last second, Wesley Matthews puts his foot in the ground and comes off of an Aldridge pindown to get the open three that he makes.

Play 1 (3 Points) – Rick Adelman/Houston Rockets

Here, the Houston Rockets run a perfect misdirection play coming out of a timeout.  The play starts with the ball getting entered to Chuck Hayes on the elbow.  After the entry pass, Lowry sets a backscreen for Budinger.  Hayes looks in the direction of Budinger, but then quickly turns around and gets the ball to Kevin Martin, who is coming off of a backscreen set by Luis Scola.

Updated Standings (Previous)

1. Doc Rivers – 38 points (1st)
2. Erik Spoelstra – 32 points (2nd)
3. Gregg Popovich – 24 points (3rd)
4. Monty Williams – 18 points (4th)
5. Rick Carlisle – 13 points (5th)
6. Frank Vogel – 12 points (6th)
7. Phil Jackson – 12 points (7th)
8. Rick Adelman – 12 points (11th)
9. Nate McMillan – 12 points (10th)
10. Alvin Gentry –  11 points (8th)
11. Tom Thibodeau – 10 points (9th)
12. Avery Johnson – 8 points (12th)
13. Doug Collins – 6 point (13th)
14. Larry Drew – 6 points (14th)
15. Scott Brooks – 6 points (15th)
16. Jay Triano – 6 points (16th)
17. Jerry Sloan – 4 points (17th)
18. Ty Corbin – 4 points (18th)
19. Lionel Hollins – 4 points (19th)
20. George Karl – 3 points (20th)
21. Scott Skiles – 3 points (21st)
22. Mike D’Antoni – 3 points (22nd)
23. Byron Scott – 2 points (23rd)
24. Stan Van Gundy – 2 points (24th)
25. Flip Saunders – 2 points (25th)
26. Paul Silas – 2 point (26th)
27. John Kuester – 1 point (27th)
28. Keith Smart – 1 point (28th)
29. Vinny Del Negro – 1 point (29th)

With his 1 point, Jay Triano ties Scott Brokes, Larry Drew, and Doug Collins.  Rick Adelman and Nate McMillan both hop Avery Johnson and get themselves into the top ten.

Play 3 (1 Point) – Nate McMillan/Portland Trailblazers

This play by Portland is a perfect example of a quick hitter.  Andre Miller brings the basketball down along the sideline and gets it to Gerald Wallace at the top of the key.  Wallace then hands it off to Rudy Fernandez, and this handoff basically turns into a ballscreen with Wallace rolling to the rim.  Fernandez hits the rolling Wallace for the easy finish.

Play 2 (2 Points) – Erik Spoelstra/Miami Heat

Yesterday, we took a look at the Thunder beating the Blazers zone with a lob.  Coincidentally enough, the Heat ran almost an identical play when the Rockets played a zone coming out of a timeout.  You have Chris Bosh flashing to the rim while a backscreen is being set for LeBron James, setting him up for the lob.

Play 1 (3 Points) – Gregg Popovich/San Antonio Spurs

Down by six points with 30 seconds left, the Spurs needed to get a quick there, and they were able to do so with a nice play, setting up Gary Neal in the opposite corner.  The play starts when the ball is entered to Matt Bonner.  Tony Parker, the man entering the basketball, cuts off of him and gets the basketball back as he starts to penetrate along the baseline.  As this happens, Antonio McDyess sets a backscreen for Gary Neal on the other side of the court.  Neal makes the catch, and knocks down the three, scoring in just 6 seconds.

Updated Standings (Previous)

1. Doc Rivers – 36 points (1st)
2. Erik Spoelstra – 32 points (2nd)
3. Gregg Popovich – 24 points (3rd)
4. Monty Williams – 18 points (4th)
5. Rick Carlisle – 13 points (5th)
6. Frank Vogel – 12 points (6th)
7. Phil Jackson – 12 points (7th)
8. Alvin Gentry –  11 points (8th)
9. Tom Thibodeau – 10 points (9th)
10. Nate McMillan – 10 points (11th)
11. Rick Adelman – 9 points (10th)
12. Avery Johnson – 8 points (12th)
13. Larry Drew – 6 points (13th)
14. Scott Brooks – 6 points (14th)
15. Jay Triano – 5 points (15th)
16. Jerry Sloan – 4 points (16th)
17. Ty Corbin – 4 points (17th)
18. Lionel Hollins – 4 points (18th)
19. Doug Collins – 3 point (19th)
20. George Karl – 3 points (20th)
21. Scott Skiles – 3 points (21st)
22. Mike D’Antoni – 3 points (22nd)
23. Byron Scott – 2 points (23rd)
24. Stan Van Gundy – 2 points (24th)
25. Flip Saunders – 2 points (25th)
26. Paul Silas – 1 point (26th)
27. John Kuester – 1 point (27th)
28. Keith Smart – 1 point (28th)
29. Vinny Del Negro – 1 point (29th)

Nate McMillan uses his game winning play to tie Rick Adelman for 10th place.  Avery Johnson hops two spots to to 12th while Lionel Hollins stays put at 18.

So when the Thunder saw the Blazers’ zone late in the first quarter, they were prepared for it.  They quickly recognized the zone, got into their zone offense, and ran a nice set to get Kevin Durant a lob at the rim:

We pick up the play after Eric Maynor brings up the basketball, gets it to Kevin Durant on the wing, then cuts through the middle of the paint to the opposite wing.  As this happens, James Harden steps up and receives a pass from Durant.

Harden quickly swings the basketball, getting it back in the hands of Maynor.  Once Maynor gets the basketball, Nick Collison flashes to the basketball.  As this happens, Serge Ibaka slips behind him, setting a backscreen for Durant.

Now look at what Collison’s flash forced to happen.  You have the three Blazers closest to the basketball focusing on Maynor, and now the remaining two defenders are focused on Collison and his flash.  This clears the paint area to set up the lob to Durant.

No Blazers’ defender sees the screen being set allowing Durant to get to the rim, catching the lob and finishing with the dunk.  Here is the play in real time:

Just an overall terrific job by the Thunder here.  They quickly recognized the zone, got into their set, and ran it effectively.  The timing of Collison’s flash to the basketball and the backcut off the screen is what really makes the play here.

Play 3 (1 Point) – Lionel Hollins/Memphis Grizzlies

This play starts with the Memphis Grizzlies bringing the basketball down the court and once Greivis Vasquez gets into position, Darrell Arthur sets a pindown screen for O.J. Mayo.  After Mayo comes off of his pinrown, Arthur comes off of a cross screen set by Marc Gasol.  Arthur comes off the screen open, makes the catch, and knocks down the jumper.

Play 2 (2 Points) – Avery Johnson/New Jersey Nets

Here, Jordan Farmar brings up the basketball and it looks like the Nets are setting up a series of screens for Sasha Vujacic to come off of so he can get a good look off of a catch and shoot situation.  However, instead of coming off of a Humphries pindown screen, Vujacic sets a backscreen for Humphries, who gets a lob at the rim.

Play 1 (3 Points) – Nate McMillan/Portland Trailblazers

Now on Saturday, I talked about how the Spurs’ defensive strategy was the main reason why Portland was able to come away with the game winning lob, but that shouldn’t take away from what the Trailblazers did here.  The fake screen from Batum crosses up the Spurs enough that they are able to get the lob. Also, McMillan was smart enough to send Aldridge to the corner, pulling his man away from the rim and keeping him from helping out on the lob.

Updated Standings (Previous)

1. Doc Rivers – 36 points (1st)
2. Erik Spoelstra – 30 points (2nd)
3. Gregg Popovich – 21 points (3rd)
4. Monty Williams – 18 points (4th)
5. Rick Carlisle – 13 points (5th)
6. Frank Vogel – 12 points (6th)
7. Phil Jackson – 12 points (7th)
8. Alvin Gentry –  11 points (8th)
9. Tom Thibodeau – 10 points (9th)
10. Rick Adelman – 9 points (10th)
11. Nate McMillan – 9 points (11th)
12. Avery Johnson – 8 points (14th)
13. Larry Drew – 6 points (12th)
14. Scott Brooks – 6 points (13th)
15. Jay Triano – 5 points (15th)
16. Jerry Sloan – 4 points (16th)
17. Ty Corbin – 4 points (17th)
18. Lionel Hollins – 4 points (18th)
19. Doug Collins – 3 point (19th)
20. George Karl – 3 points (20th)
21. Scott Skiles – 3 points (21st)
22. Mike D’Antoni – 3 points (22nd)
23. Byron Scott – 2 points (23rd)
24. Stan Van Gundy – 2 points (24th)
25. Flip Saunders – 2 points (25th)
26. Paul Silas – 1 point (26th)
27. John Kuester – 1 point (27th)
28. Keith Smart – 1 point (28th)
29. Vinny Del Negro – 1 point (29th)

Nate McMillan uses his game winning play to tie Rick Adelman for 10th place.  Avery Johnson hops two spots to to 12th while Lionel Hollins stays put at 18.

As the basketball goes to the trigger man, the Blazers have a lot of things going on.  Wesley Matthews flashes to the basketball near the halfcourt line as LaMarcus Aldridge flashes to the corner behind the three point line.  The main action however is Brandon Roy coming off of a screen set by Nicolas Batum.

The Spurs’ strategy was to play straight man while switching any screens.  One of the results of this strategy is Tiago Splitter chasing Aldridge out to the three point line.  This opens the lane for Nicolas Batum and his path to the rim.  Before the screen can get set, Batum slips the screen and heads straight towards the rim on the weakside.  Batum showing the screen forces the Spurs to initiate the switch, with Tony Parker picking up Batum and Manu Ginobili picking up Roy.

Parker is a tad bit late on the switch, and this creates a window for Andre Miller to make the pass into.  Also notice that the lane is clear because Splitter is out standing in the corner with Aldridge.

Parker actually does a pretty good job of recovering on the play, but the height difference is too great and Batum is able to get the basketball, tip it in the direction of the basket, and win the game for the Blazers.  Here is the play in real time:

Before we start talking about this play and comparing it to some others, it is important to note that this situation had 0.9 seconds left compared to the 0.5, 0.4, or 0.3 seconds in the situations we have looked at in the past.  This is important because in this situation (with 0.9 seconds left), the catch and shoot is more of a threat than if there was 0.5 seconds or less left.

With that being said, I am not too sure with coach Gregg Popovich’s strategy here.  It was reported on Twitter that during the post game, Popovich blamed a late switch for the play (courtesy of @mtokito from the Oregonian):

Popovich on #Blazers‘ winning lob: “We were switching it, and we did a poor job of switching. They did a great job of executing. “

However, that final screenshot tells us that Tony Parker did in fact get an effective switch.  The real problem was that there was nobody protecting the paint, and the Blazers were able to take advantage of the height advantage to get the lob.  In my opinion, the Spurs should have kept Splitter in the paint, ready to help on any backdoor cut that would occur.  Yes, this leaves Aldridge open in the corner, but a rushed three in the corner (yes, 0.9 seconds is enough time to catch and shoot, but it is still going to be a rushed shot) is probably a lower percentage shot than a lob.  Plus, we have seen teams get stops when using the zone to protect the rim time after time.  There is something to it.

I am normally not a fan of backdoor lobs without screens being set because they tend to only work when the defense is playing straight man to man (which is exactly what happens here), but if you are going to run a lob like this, running it off a slipped screen is the right way to do it (the Knicks showed us the wrong way).  You do have to give the Blazers credit for catching the Spurs off guard with their play, but I think if defended properly, we would have seen overtime in Portland.