For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.
Jimmer Fredette. I don’t know if there is a more polarizing draft pick in this year’s draft class. There are some who think he will be a bust, some who think he will be an average player, and everyone else who is flocking to see him where ever he goes thinks he will be a superstar. The Kings made a few interesting moves to be able to draft Fredette, and here is a look at his strengths and weaknesses.
Strengths
Shooting Ability
The fascination with Jimmer Fredette starts with his shooting ability, where he seems to show unlimited range, and is a threat to take and make a shot as soon as he crosses half-court. The type of shot doesn’t matter to Fredette, who can knock down threes off of the dribble, coming off of screens, or in catch and shoot situations. Within BYU’s offense, Fredette has the freedom to shoot whenever he wants, and that is such a threat to the defense because he can knock down both open and closely contested shots consistently.
After a scoring explosion from Marcus Thornton and some free throws from Beno Udrih, the Sacramento Kings found themselves winning by three points with 4.5 seconds left. Needing a three, the Sixers ran a play that involved entering the basketball to Spencer Hawes at halfcourt, presenting the Kings with a perfect opportunity to foul up three, however they turned it down. The result was Lou Williams knocking down a deep three, sending the game into overtime:
Using Del Harris’ rules for fouling up three (which is quickly turning into my preferred strategy as well) that include fouling with under 7 seconds left and only if the man with the ball has his back turned to the rim, the Kings had a chance to foul Hawes at halfcourt as he made the catch:
With their game against the Sacramento Kings tied, the Cleveland Cavaliers had the basketball with about 32 seconds left. Looking to break the tie, the Cavs ran a pick and roll with J.J. Hickson and Ramon Sessions, looking to get Sessions in the paint. The play worked in large part to poor help defense from the Sacramento Kings, specifically Beno Udrih.
Hickson comes up and sets the screen for Sessions who uses it. Samuel Dalembert hedges hard, determined to keep Sessions out of the paint as Marcus Thorton goes over the screen.
This Tuesday’s edition of The Clipboard at Basketball Prospectus took at Tyreke Evans and explained the dip in his numbers this year:
This change in Evans’ attack has really altered his play, and the numbers back that up. Despite a poor jumper, Evans was able to play his way to a win percentage (Win%) of 54.8 percent while posting a WARP of 7.1 and an Offensive Rating of 107.1 on a 52.9 True Shooting Percentage (TS%). This year, all of those numbers are down across the board. Evans’Win% is just 44.9 percent, and Evans’ has posted a WARP of 1.0 halfway through this season. Evans’ Offensive Rating has taken a huge hit, dropping all of the way down to 102.7 as his TS% has dropped to 46.4 percent.
So why is Evans’ True Shooting Percentage down this year (and effectively hurting him everywhere else)? Well, one has to look at the decrease of attempts at the rim, where he is shooting 57.4 percent, while he is taking more and more jumpers where he is shooting much worse (21.4 percent from 10-15 feet and 35 percent from 16-23 feet).
Two late second decisions I have been talking about all season is fouling up three points and how lob set plays with under 1 second left are defended. Yesterday during the Kings-Hawks game we saw another final second SLOB play get defended poorly. After two Joe Johnson free throws, the Sacramento Kings trailed the Atlanta Hawks by 0.6 seconds left. The Kings of course decided to try a lob play, and the Hawks didn’t seem prepared for it:
The Hawks decided to defend the Kings man to man in this final set. Because of that, Tyreke Evans was able to actually get a lane to receive a wide open lob pass. The reason why Evans was open is because Josh Smith was defending the man setting the backscreen for Evans and he didn’t switch or hedge. Instead, he decided to stick to his man, giving Evans the lane.
This week’s edition of Savvy/Shabby is going to take a look at some play calls, both by the coaches and the players. On the good side of things, we are going to look at a freelance play between Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol that results in an easy lob. On the opposite end, we are going to look at a play drawn up by Kings coach Paul Westphal that lead to his center taking a game-tying three point attempt.
This week, we are going to take a look at a heads-up play that Tyreke Evans made, leading up to his incredible buzzer beater. On the other end of the spectrum, David Lee made a boneheaded play against the Miami Heat, allowing them to hit the game-clinching three with about four minutes left.
Savvy: Tyreke Evans’ Trap
After the Kings went for the quick two when trailing by three points, Sacramento found themselves down by one point with 22.2 seconds left. Since there are under 24 seconds left, the Kings either have to force a turnover or foul to get the basketball back. Sacramento decided that they wanted to try and get a quick steal, and if they were unable to get it, they would foul. This is where Tyreke Evans made one of the smartest plays that I have seen this year.
With around 26 seconds left, the Sacramento Kings found themselves up by three points against the Phoenix Suns. Understanding the only way that the Suns can tie the game in this situation is with a three point shot, the Kings did a very good job of running the Suns off the line, making sure they pay attention to the shooters, and forcing a tough shot. After forcing the miss, they were able to secure the win.
The play starts with Mickael Pietrus getting a screen from Marcin Gortat as Grant Hill flashes to the basketball.
During the final minute or so of the Kings’ game against the Grizzlies, there were so many interesting things that happened that can be broken down, but instead of doing a different post, I decided to try something new and break everything down individually in one post. Let’s pick this thing up with 0:40 seconds left and the Kings trailing by two:
The Kings Decide To Go Quick
The Kings were down by two points with 40 seconds left. This situation forces the head coach into a tough decision. There are two options, you try to run something quick to perserve the two for one, or you take your time and run a set to try and get the best look possible. It is possible to get a good look quickly, it’s not going to come out of a “set” involving a lot of motion/cuts off the ball. In my opinion, the best bet is to try and come away with a decent look quickly, and if nothing comes of it, reset and get the best look you can. Here is what the Kings did:
I absolutely love what Coach Westphal does here. It’s an ISO, but not really an ISO, as he gives Tyreke Evans a screen and instructions to get to the rim as quick as he can. It isn’t the best look, but it is a makable shot. Evans misses it, but the key is the clock. As the ball comes off the rim, there are 33 seconds left, a 9 second difference with a two point deficit means that you can play straight defense and not foul.
Against the Sacramento Kings, the LA Clippers found themselves up three points and needing to defend the Kings for 5.1 seconds to secure the win. Here is what happened:
First, let’s look at this from a Kings perspective. You are down three points and you run a simple ISO set for your best scorer, but a player who only shoots 26% from three on the season? There aren’t a ton of great three point shooters on the Kings, but there are a quite a few better options than Tyreke Evans, and almost daily we see a number of creative ways a coach can get an open look for three late. Just to run an ISO, when you need a three?
