Past Editions: Kyrie Irving (#1) | Derrick Williams (#2) | Tristan Thompson (#4) | Jonas Valanciunas (#5) | Jan Vesely (#6)| Bismack Biyombo (#7) | Brandon Knight (#8) | Kemba Walker (#9)

Jimmer Fredette.  I don’t know if there is a more polarizing draft pick in this year’s draft class.  There are some who think he will be a bust, some who think he will be an average player, and everyone else who is flocking to see him where ever he goes thinks he will be a superstar.  The Kings made a few interesting moves to be able to draft Fredette, and here is a look at his strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths

Shooting Ability

The fascination with Jimmer Fredette starts with his shooting ability, where he seems to show unlimited range, and is a threat to take and make a shot as soon as he crosses half-court.  The type of shot doesn’t matter to Fredette, who can knock down threes off of the dribble, coming off of screens, or in catch and shoot situations. Within BYU’s offense, Fredette has the freedom to shoot whenever he wants, and that is such a threat to the defense because he can knock down both open and closely contested shots consistently.

In catch and shoot situations, Fredette shot 43.5% (with an eFG% of 64.8%) last season, posting a PPP of 1.296 (putting him in the top 10% of all college players).  What’s interesting, is that Fredette is actually a better shooter when contested (as described by Synergy Sports), knocking down 45.2% of his contested shots and just 40.5% of all open shots.  My guess is that his 40 footers that he took in BYU were considered open, and with better shot selection and more of a leash in the pros, both numbers should rise.

Fredette is also a very good shooter off of the dribble, knocking down 38.8% of all jumpers off of the dribble (putting him in the top 15% of all NBA players).  His catch and shoot ability actually helps free him up off of the dribble as well.  Any time Fredette makes a catch, defenses run at him in fear of him pulling off of the catch.  This gives him lanes and puts the defense off balance, allowing Fredette to get slivers of space, and that is all he needs to get shots off.

Passing Ability

Clips of Fredette attempting long pull-up threes have given him the reputation as a selfish gunner, but this is hardly the case. Yes, BYU’s offense started and finished with Fredette, but he always seemed to be a willing passer, able to hit the open man if the defense starts to focus too much on him. In addition, Fredette is a strong enough ball handler with either hand to get himself to spots on the court where he is a threat, forcing help. When that help comes, Jimmer is able to get the ball to the open man.

In isolation situations where Jimmer Fredette makes a pass (15.5% of Jimmer’s isolation possessions), his teammates shot 58.3% and posting an eFG% of 71.9%.  Players don’t put up these type of numbers if the passes aren’t getting to the correct spots.

Weaknesses

Defense

The biggest problem that Fredette will have when making the jump to the NBA is inability to play defense.  At BYU, his offense more than made up for his lack of defense, but in a pro system where he won’t have the shots like he did in college, he is going to have to try and play some defense to prove his worth and stay on the court.

Fredette’s average, at best, athletic ability really hurts him on this end as his poor lateral quickness allows him to get beat by quicker ball handlers. Despite not having the tools to play tough defense, the most worrying thing might be his mindset on the defensive end. Fredette almost seems disinterested defensively, and this leads to poor help and poor positioning off of the basketball. Even worse, when he does get beaten by his man with the ball, he tends to give up instead of trying to recover, hoping that his help can get the job done.

Finishing At The Rim/Over Help Defenders

Despite showing a nice mid-range game that should translate to the NBA well, Fredette could have trouble finishing in the paint at the next level. While he might be crafty enough to finish over his man, he has struggled at times finishing over help defenders.  Fredette doesn’t always have the athletic ability to finish with help coming, so he is forced into double-clutched, circus-style lay-up attempts. This puts the basketball on a tee for the help defense to block it, and if he does get it over the help, there is a small chance the ball actually goes in.

According to Synergy, Fredette shoots 53.9% on shots around the rim, posting a PPP of 1.156 (putting him in the bottom 60%).  On runners, Fredette shot just 28.3%, posting a PPP of 0.674 (bottom 45% among all college players).  While a floater is something that you can develop, seeing these kind of numbers and these struggles against college help defenders is really concerning, especially considering in the NBA, help defenders are faster, more athletic, and smarter about when they send their help.  I expect continued problems finishing around the rim for Fredette’s first couple of seasons.

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So how do I think Fredette will perform in the pros?  I am a little more down on him than others, and I think his ceiling is a scorer off of the bench or maybe a starter on a bad team.  What scares me about Fredette is that the things he needs to improve upon are things that don’t get better with hard work, tape sessions, or more reps.  He needs to become more athletic.  His lack of athleticism hurts him both defensively and finishing at the rim.  Could he become an ok defender?  It’s possible (J.J. Redick has done it), but I just don’t see it happening right away.

Using Del Harris’ rules for fouling up three (which is quickly turning into my preferred strategy as well) that include fouling with under 7 seconds left and only if the man with the ball has his back turned to the rim, the Kings had a chance to foul Hawes at halfcourt as he made the catch:

As you can see, Hawes makes the catch and he is not only 50 or so feet away from the basket, but his back is turned.  There are actually two Kings’ players that could have fouled him here.  Beno Udrih, who is in his area when he makes the catch, and Donte Greene, who sprints by him before he makes the pass to Lou Williams.

So why didn’t the Kings foul?  Well the most obvious explanation is that Paul Westphal doesn’t believe in fouling up three.  However, if you aren’t going to foul up by three points, you need to protect the three point line, and the Kings failed to do that.  Let’s take a look at the video one more time:

Look at all of the confusion taking place.  You have Dante Greene pointing at Andre Iguodala, as if he is trying to call his teammates attention to him.  Greene doesn’t trust that anyone picked him up so he sticks with him.  The problem?  Beno Udrih was picking him up.  This left Lou Williams with a big trying to stick with him, and it doesn’t work out as Williams is able to shake him and get off the decent look from three, knocking it down and sending the game into overtime.

This comes down to lack of communication.  The Kings need to know who is defending who before the play starts.  That doesn’t happen, and you have two defenders covering one player.  Not a good way to try and get a stop.

Hickson comes up and sets the screen for Sessions who uses it.  Samuel Dalembert hedges hard, determined to keep Sessions out of the paint as Marcus Thorton goes over the screen.

Dalembert isn’t able to contain Sessions, who uses his quickness to get around him.  As he turns the corner, we focus on Beno Udrih who is defending Daniel Gibson in the short corner.  Udrih needs to sink down and help, forcing a kickout pass to the corner and preventing Sessions from getting to the rim.

Instead, Udrih stays attached to Gibson’s hip as Sessions is able to get all the way to the rim, uncontested.

Sessions very smartly uses the rim as a screener, preventing Dalembert from getting to the shot, and hits the lay-up.  Here is the play in real time:

I understand the importance of staying on Gibson, who is a very good shooter, but you need to be in a position to help and can’t just have your back to the basketball.  You don’t even have to help completely, just show the help and return to your man.  At the very least, make Sessions think about you and your presence.  If you force a pass to the outside, you can force a turnover or force a missed shot.  Instead, the Kings give up a wide open lay-up.

This change in Evans’ attack has really altered his play, and the numbers back that up. Despite a poor jumper, Evans was able to play his way to a win percentage (Win%) of 54.8 percent while posting a WARP of 7.1 and an Offensive Rating of 107.1 on a 52.9 True Shooting Percentage (TS%). This year, all of those numbers are down across the board. Evans’Win% is just 44.9 percent, and Evans’ has posted a WARP of 1.0 halfway through this season. Evans’ Offensive Rating has taken a huge hit, dropping all of the way down to 102.7 as his TS% has dropped to 46.4 percent.

So why is Evans’ True Shooting Percentage down this year (and effectively hurting him everywhere else)? Well, one has to look at the decrease of attempts at the rim, where he is shooting 57.4 percent, while he is taking more and more jumpers where he is shooting much worse (21.4 percent from 10-15 feet and 35 percent from 16-23 feet).

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The Hawks decided to defend the Kings man to man in this final set.  Because of that, Tyreke Evans was able to actually get a lane to receive a wide open lob pass.  The reason why Evans was open is because Josh Smith was defending the man setting the backscreen for Evans and he didn’t switch or hedge.  Instead, he decided to stick to his man, giving Evans the lane.

I don’t understand why teams decide to play man to man instead of zone in this situation.  If you don’t want to play zone, at the very least why don’t you have someone protecting the rim.  The only play that seems to beat man to man defense in this situation is the lob play, and if this season is any indication, the only play that teams want to run in this situation are lob plays.  So why not put your defense in the best position to stop the lob.

If you saw that screenshot without knowing the final score, you would assume that the Kings tied the game and sent it to overtime.  However, they didn’t because of a decision made by coach Paul Westphal.  Westphal decided to use DeMarcus Cousins to inbound the basketball, and Cousins responded by sending the ball into the third row with an absolutely terrible pass:

Cousins is a very good passer for a big man, but that means he is good passing out of the post, not throwing an inbounds lob with 0.6 seconds left. The decision is especially puzzling considering the Kings roster. They have a lot of height on their team (Omri Casspi and Francisco Garcia immediately come to mind) in skill possession. Good design, poor execution from Sacramento. Poor design, good result from Atlanta.

This week’s edition of Savvy/Shabby is going to take a look at some play calls, both by the coaches and the players. On the good side of things, we are going to look at a freelance play between Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol that results in an easy lob. On the opposite end, we are going to look at a play drawn up by Kings coach Paul Westphal that lead to his center taking a game-tying three point attempt.

As always, head on over and check it out!

This week, we are going to take a look at a heads-up play that Tyreke Evans made, leading up to his incredible buzzer beater. On the other end of the spectrum, David Lee made a boneheaded play against the Miami Heat, allowing them to hit the game-clinching three with about four minutes left.

Savvy: Tyreke Evans’ Trap

After the Kings went for the quick two when trailing by three points, Sacramento found themselves down by one point with 22.2 seconds left. Since there are under 24 seconds left, the Kings either have to force a turnover or foul to get the basketball back. Sacramento decided that they wanted to try and get a quick steal, and if they were unable to get it, they would foul.  This is where Tyreke Evans made one of the smartest plays that I have seen this year.

As always, head on over and check it out!

The play starts with Mickael Pietrus getting a screen from Marcin Gortat as Grant Hill flashes to the basketball.

Hill gets the ball, and the first look for the Suns is Pietrus coming off of the Gortat screen.  However, the Kings understand that they are going to be looking for a three, so they have Omri Casspi right on Pietrus’ hip.

After setting a screen for Pietrus, Gortat now sets a screen for Steve Nash.  Again, the Kings are playing it to defend the three ball.  DeMarcus Cousins is backed off of Gotrat, and Pooh Jeter is trailing Nash as he uses the screen.

Jeter gets clipped by the Gortat screen, giving Hill a passing lane to Nash.  It looks like Nash is going to be able to get a three off, but Cousins leaves his man (Gortat) to close out on Nash.

The logic is that leaving Gortat open doesn’t hurt the Kings because they know the Suns need a three pointer.  If Gortat hits a three or a lay-up then so be it.  They are basically chasing Nash off the line here, forcing him to drive the lane.

Again, as Nash drives, you see the Kings defending the three pointer.  Casspi is responsible for Pietrus, and knowing that the Suns need a three, he gives up the lane so that if a pass is made to Pietrus (which in fact does happen), he can close out on him.

Casspi closes out on Pietrus as he makes the catch, forces him to pump fake and then take a fade away three pointer from the corner.  Here is the play in real time.

Notice that the Kings are giving up anything inside. You want to curl off of Gortat’s screen into the lane? Go ahead. You want to pump fake, drive, and take a lay-up? Sure. The Kings are giving up everything except for a three point shot.

The Kings Decide To Go Quick

The Kings were down by two points with 40 seconds left.  This situation forces the head coach into a tough decision.  There are two options, you try to run something quick to perserve the two for one, or you take your time and run a set to try and get the best look possible.  It is possible to get a good look quickly, it’s not going to come out of a “set” involving a lot of motion/cuts off the ball.  In my opinion, the best bet is to try and come away with a decent look quickly, and if nothing comes of it, reset and get the best look you can.  Here is what the Kings did:

I absolutely love what Coach Westphal does here.  It’s an ISO, but not really an ISO, as he gives Tyreke Evans a screen and instructions to get to the rim as quick as he can.  It isn’t the best look, but it is a makable shot.  Evans misses it, but the key is the clock.  As the ball comes off the rim, there are 33 seconds left, a 9 second difference with a two point deficit means that you can play straight defense and not foul.

Beno Udrih’s Foul

The good decision/playcall that Westphal made instantly gets wiped away by a bonehead play from Beno Udrih.

At first, I thought Udrih fouled intentionally, but rewatching the tape it is obvious that he gets called for a reach, and it might not even be a foul.  The problem is that you have to take the situation into consideration before reaching in like that.

With 33 seconds left and a team down by two reaches in, an official could mistake that for trying to foul intentionally (that is what I believe happens here).  Conley’s got the basketball cradled in his chest, you aren’t going to come away with it, so there is no reason to reach if you are Udrih.  Get back, find your man and defend.  Even though Conley misses the second one, that doesn’t make this less of a bad decision.

Kings’ Quick Two

At this point, the Kings are down 3 points with 30 seconds left and no timeouts after using their final one.  Again, the Kings are in a tough position here.  You have to decide to try and go for the quick two, foul, and extend the game or work for a three pointer and try to tie the game back up.

Depending on the situation, my opinion of the strategies change.  If you have timeouts, I like to see coaches go for two, and extend the game by fouling.  If you don’t have timeouts, I like to see teams go for the three.  The reason being that with no timeouts, you can’t advance the ball to halfcourt, and you are wasting time bringing the ball up the court, and you might run out of chances before you can catch up (technically, that happens in this case, Evans just hit a shot from halfcourt):

Regardless of the decision to go for the quick two (which I disagree with), this is a pretty nice set.  You have Udrih curling around Cousins, forcing Conley to stick with him (to defend the three), with a quick entry pass to Cousins.  It looks like you are going to have more curls off of Cousins, but then he quickly attacks the rim, getting the two.  Really an effective set here.

Kings Trap Before The Foul

If you are going to go for the 2 and try to extend the game by fouling, you have to decide when to foul.  Again, the Kings are forced to make a decision.  Either you foul right away, or you go for the steal, if nothing comes of it then you foul.  I have said before that I love seeing teams trying to get the steal before the foul in halfcourt situations (this is very important in this situation), and that is what happens here:

Here, O.J. Mayo gets the ball along the sideline, and instead of taking the ball to the middle of the floor, he waits to get fouled. The problem is the foul never comes and Mayo is letting the Kings use the baseline as an extra defender. Francisco Garcia brings the double and almost gets the steal. With 22.2 seconds left, the Kings still don’t have to foul right away, and they don’t.

Now at first glimpse, this just looks like Mayo was a little loose with the basketball, but if you rewatch it, you realize that Tyreke Evans makes one of the most heads-up basketball plays that we have seen this year:

There is a newish rule in the NBA (can’t remember if it was last year or two years ago) that said in the final two minutes of the game teams can inbound the ball into the backcourt.  The Grizzlies take advantage of that rule here as they send Conley behind the midcourt line.

As Conley continues to head into the backcourt, O.J. Mayo flashes to the basketball.  Even though Conley seems to be open in the backcourt, the ball gets inbounded to Mayo.

Now, the problem with sending a player to the backcourt is that if it gets inbounded into the frontcourt, the guy in the backcourt is now out of the play until he gets back in the frontcourt.  So basically as long as Conley stays behind the halfcourt line, the ball can’t go to him (or it is a backcourt violation)

Evans’ recognizes this immediately, and realizing that he doesn’t have to worry about his man, he quickly doubles the basketball.

Conley floated a little too far away from the midcourt line, and he was unable to get back into the frontcourt in time to be an option for Mayo.  The result was a steal and an easy lay-up for Evans.

The Finish

After everything that happened, you would think that it couldn’t get any crazier.  It got crazier.  After a missed ISO opportunity for Rudy Gay, the Grizzlies have the ball side out with 5.5 seconds left:

There is a whole lot of stuff happening here and I have a lot of thoughts on what happened.  Here are my thoughts in bullet form:

• First, I love that Evans took away the pass to Rudy Gay.  The Grizzlies just ran an ISO to Gay, so the Kings’ coaching staff decided to take Evans off the inbounder and use him to keep the ball out of Gay’s hand.
• The Kings force Mayo to take one of the toughest shots I’ve ever seen.  I can’t believe he made that shot.
• After Mayo hit that shot, just about everyone thought there was a timeout coming.  A few Grizzlies players on the court, the Grizzlies bench, some guy in a suit that wonders on the court.  One problem though, the Kings didn’t have a timeout left.  Credit the Grizzlies coaching staff for recognizing this and letting the guys on the court know that the ball was still live.
• Don’t know if this was intentional or not, but it was a smart play by Cousins to not inbound the ball right away.  Instead of forcing the basketball to the first white jersey that he sees (which is something that we see way too often in this situation), he lets things develop, picks out the right player (Evans) and gets the ball to him.
• I know that the Grizzlies wanted to get back to make sure that there wasn’t an easy full court pass, but I think someone should have stepped up to try and deny Evans.  He is obviously the guy the Kings are going to in that situation.

All things considered, this might have been the craziest finish that we have seen this year (and considering some of the stuff that we have seen this year, that isn’t easy to say), but amid all the wildness, there were some great coaching moves, smart decisions, and even not so smart decisions that ended up working for the Kings.  I’d even say that you could use these final 40 seconds to show players what they should (and shouldn’t) be doing late.

First, let’s look at this from a Kings perspective.  You are down three points and you run a simple ISO set for your best scorer, but a player who only shoots 26% from three on the season?  There aren’t a ton of great three point shooters on the Kings, but there are a quite a few better options than Tyreke Evans, and almost daily we see a number of creative ways a coach can get an open look for three late.  Just to run an ISO, when you need a three?

Now, let’s look at the Clippers and their decision to foul up three.  I have already talked about this a number of different times, so I am not going to harp on the decision too much.  I don’t agree with it, but I understand why coaches are willing to do it, but the coaches need to give his player options when asking them to foul up three.  In my opinion, coaches shouldn’t say, “hey, we are fouling up three, no matter what.”  That is what happens here.

We already talked about how poor of a three point shooter Evans is, so why not just not foul him when you realize that the Kings are running an ISO for him?  If you are going to foul, it needs to be executed properly, and that isn’t what happens here.  Evans makes his initial catch way up top near half court.  Right there is where the foul should take place.  Instead, the defender lets Evans take a few dribbles, and by the time he reaches in to foul, Evans is able to get himself into a shooting motion, earning three free throws.

Oh, and Evans missed the third foul shot and a decent look off of the offensive rebound.  That seemed appropriate for this game.