The latest move in Bulls-Heat chess match
Despite missing a key cog last night, Chicago put up quite the fight against Miami. Barring injury, these are the two teams many expect to battle it out in the Eastern Conference Finals once again. With the two teams meeting three more before the playoffs, every regular season tilt, even minus a player like Deng, still helps each team experiment with new ways to slow down an opponent they are becoming more and more familiar with.
In yesterday’s match up, the latest twist in strategy came with Tom Thibodeau deployed a zone for a handful of possession starting in the middle of the first quarter. While this move was most likely meant to help Derrick Rose avoid picking up a debilitating third foul, it could be tool the Bulls use again come playoff time. The question of whether or not they use it is something that remains to be seen, but both teams now have the tape to assess whether not it will be effective and to what degree. 
Before diving into the film, it’s important to review what exactly a zone does to opponent’s game preparation. Depending on its effectiveness, a scheme change like a zone can take anywhere from 10 to 40 minutes of a given practice, walk-through and/or film session to countering it. That doesn’t seem like much. But remember, in a lockout-afflicted season teams (like the Heat) have precious little practice time to perfect their own schemes, let alone react to another team’s.
If a team consistently struggles against a certain scheme then that 10-40 minutes can blow up to over 3-5 hours of practice/film/walk-throughs over the duration of a playoff series (assuming that coach wants his team to be prepared). That is time a team could spend refining their own concepts, adding new wrinkles or simply use to let their players rest their worn-down bodies. With that logic, it seems like the perfect idea for the Bulls to trot out even a marginally effective zone against the Heat, right?
When looking at the numbers, it would appear to be a no-brainer. By unofficial count, the Bulls limited Miami to 5 points over 6 possessions (0.83 PPP). Obviously, six possessions is a ridiculously small sample size. That is where the film comes into play and when looking at that, the answer becomes much less clear.
The first time we see the zone is off a sideline out-of-bounds with 3:03 left in the first quarter. LeBron James enters the ball into Mario Chalmers who quickly swings the ball to Shane Battier on the left wing. Battier reverses the ball back to Chalmers then (perhaps unintentionally) cuts along the baseline with Udonis Haslem back to the strongside of the floor.
As James’ catches on the right wing, Ronnie Brewer drops to defend both cutters, giving up a gap in the zone. LeBron, employing a basic tenant of attacking zones, punches that gap with his dribble, flattening out the defense and forcing two defenders to the ball. On the collapse, James executes a brilliant hook pass to Chalmers spotting up on the weakside wing. The result is a semi-contested 3-pointer (Chalmers could have easily used a shot-fake, one-dribble pull up attack for a cleaner look, however).
Here is the video:
On the surface, it looks as if the Bulls forced a tough shot, but in all reality Chalmers just didn’t exploit a long closeout by Hamilton efficiently enough. The next clip is a bit of a mirage as well.
Norris Cole ends up setting a screen inside the top on ball defender (Rose). James uses the ball screen to pull Hamilton high toward him. Seeing Haslem flashing middle, James threads a pass through the gap. However, Haslem doesn’t hold his position long enough and looks to change space, leaving James’ pass to find only Joakim Noah.
Even though this lead to a run out and layup for Chicago, Miami was in a great position had Haslem just used a bit more patience. In the following picture, you’ll see that if Haslem catches the ball in that spot, the Bulls defense is extremely vulnerable. Not only does he have the space to immediately shoot a foul line jumper, but Haslem can look to go high-low with Eddy Curry (if Noah rotates up) or find Shane Battier (if Boozer rotates) hunting space either behind the defense or cutting up to the opposite wing.
Upon further inspection, this turnover is an easily correctable mistake. Perhaps this concept and alignment will be something that Spolestra uses should the Bulls zone them again.
The other things zones are notorious for giving up our offensive rebounds. In one possession, the Bulls actually gave up two offensive rebounds and only escaped due to a botched putback attempt by Haslem. In the following clip, a freeze-frame highlights a blockout dilemma for Kyle Korver.
With Noah and Carlos Boozer moving to contest a shot from the corner, Korver is left to try to fend off two Heat players (Battier and Mike Miller) coming in from the weakside for the rebound. Korver chooses to throw his body in front of the hard-charging Miller, which opens up a gap for Haslem (left unimpeded by Rose) to sneak in for the third shot attempt. Haslem misses a great chance, but this possession highlights the rebounding problems zones bring.
With two more match-ups on the docket in the regular season, it will be interesting to see how much (if any) zone is used by Chicago. Perhaps last night was a one-time thing centered around a need to protect Rose given his foul trouble. Or perhaps it was a chance for Thibodeau to see if a zone has a chance to slow down the Heat come playoff time. Either way, this chess match will be fun to watch.
