Last year, we took a look at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. When an international guy gets drafted, I usually wait on his buyout news before assuming a player is coming, but when someone as smart as Jonathan Givony (the man behind Draft Express – he called a guy from Qatar being drafted) tells you that it’s “100 %” he’s coming over, then you take that as fact. That’s why we are looking at Jan Vesely the day after the draft.
Past Editions: Ricky Rubio
Vesley comes to the Washington Wizards with a reputation as a high flyer, calling Blake Griffin “the American Jan Vesely” but outside the big dunk highlights, nobody really knows much about him. In this scouting report, we are going to look at a few strengths and weaknesses outside the big dunks.
Strengths
Post Offense
Vesely is a player who offensively is very comfortable posting up with his back to the basket. In the 92 post up possessions that Vesely had over the course of the season, he posted a PPP of 1.022 (good for a top 14% finish among international basketball players) on 65.4% shooting.
One of the biggest reasons for his success in the post is his ability to establish very good position down low.
Jan Vesely does a fantastic job of using his body and his butt as a tool that lets him be physical with his defender and get his body on the block. Position is so important when posting up, if you start too far away, you aren’t going to be efficient as a post player. When Vesely gets the ball so deep in the post, it makes all of his moves so much easier.
What I really like about Vesely is that he is very active and smart when establishing position. The perfect example is how he handles being fronted.
Here, Vesely’s team is running a cross screen for him, allowing him to set up on the block. As Vesely comes off of the screen, his man trails him and then plays him over the top. Instead of working to get in front of him (and basically giving up position), he sticks his left arm out, holds his defender off, and calls for the ball with the other hand, basically setting up a post-pin situation.
Here, Vesely gets another cross screen, and as he tries to establish position, he gets fronted. Again, instead of working hard to get in front, and possibly giving up position, Vesely changes his feet position and puts his arm in the back of his defender (all in one smooth move). He gets the lob over the top and finishes easily. Out of his 92 post possessions, Vesely had 24 of them turn into post pins. If you front him, he pins you. If you stay behind him, he establishes terrific position. That’s tough to defend.
What is so strange about Vesely’s high efficiency in the post is that he wastes a lot of possessions by turning the ball over a ton in the post. When getting the ball on the block, Vesely has turned it over 19.6% of the time.
So where do these turnovers come from? Well, Vesely loves passing out of the post, and he is good at it when he isn’t forcing the basketball. When he completes his passes, his teammates are posting a PPP of 1.585 (top 6%) on 60% shooting. The problem that Vesely has is that he tends to force passes, looking to make the perfect pass or thread the needle (he loves throwing the jump pass out of the post).
This is a very correctable problem with coaching in my opinion and why I listed his post offense as a strength despite the high turnover number.
Defense
We know that Vesely has athletic ability and have seen it with his dunking, however, he uses that athletic ability for more than dunks. On the defensive end, Vesely is a very good one on one defender, holding opponents to a PPP of 0.524 (top 12%) on 33.3% shooting, while forcing a turnover 33.3% of the time.
Vesely is quick and athletic enough that guys can’t really get by him to get to the rim. They are forced to settle for outside jumpers, where Vesely can use his length to contest shots.
Weaknesses
Ball Handling
85.5% of Vesely’s offense came off of the ball (Spot-Ups, Post-Ups, Cuts, Transition, Offensive Rebounds), and there is a reason why, he’s not entirely comfortable with the ball in his hands. Just 2.8% of Vesely’s offense were isolation sets where he was forced to create for himself, and while it was a small sample size, you could see his sturggles. Vesely posted a PPP of 0.500 (bottom 9%) and shot just 18.2% in isolation, turning it over 14.3% of the time.
To me, Vesely is just too loose with the ball when he tries to create for himself. Aslo, unlike when he is posting up, Vesely seems to get tunnel vision when he is attacking for himself. Putting himself in tough positions to try and finish when attacking out of isolation sets.
Shooting
In addition to his inability to create for himself, Vesely struggles with his shooting touch. Vesely shot just 27.1% (39.3 eFG%) on 107 jump shots. On catch and shoot chances, Vesely shot 30.5% (30.8% guarded/30.2% unguarded). Off of the dribble, Vesely shot just 11.8%. With the team that he is playing on and the roll that he should be playing in my opinion, these shooting percentages shouldn’t be a huge problem (though, of course, you would like to see them get higher), because I don’t see him taking a lot of jump shots.
However, in my opinion the biggest problem related to Vesely’s shooting is his free throw shooting. While attempting close to 4 free throws a game, Vesely shot just 43.8% from the free throw line in EuroLeague play. With his domestic league combined, Vesely got his FT% all the way up to 50.9%. There are a few things that I don’t really like with Vesely’s free throw shooting form.
The first thing is while Vesely has the same repeatable routine, there is a problem with it. The whole time he is at the free throw line, he looks at the basket for one second before he shoots. Vesely keeps his head down the entire time he is taking his three dribbles, gets set, then looks up to find the rim, and finally shooting the ball. It may sound simple, but how are you supposed to shoot at a target you don’t have your eyes on?
Nobody is defending you. Take your dribble and bend your knees with the eyes on your target. I think just by doing that, he can be more accurate. Also, due to the ball with the multi-color panels (I love those and wish the NBA would adopt them) we can see Vesely doesn’t get a ton of rotation on the shot, which is part of the reason you never see him get the “shooter’s roll.”
With the 6th pick overall, you are hoping for an impact guy who will be a starter for your team. I think the Wizards have that, but not this season. This season, I can see Vesely having an impact, but his role will probably be (and in my opinion should be) coming off of the bench. He can come in, play defense, make a few high energy plays, and work the post.
One interesting thing on Vesely. To me he seems like an ideal pick and roll screener, but was rarely used in that situation. I could definitely see the Wizards using him as a screener in the second unit, trying to take possessions away from his spot-up shooting, which is poor at this point.
