For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.
After a steller freshman season, Derrick Williams came back to Arizona for his sophomore season and played even better, taking his team all the way to the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual champion Connecticut by just two points. On the strength of this sophomore season, Williams was drafted with the second pick overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Using game tape from this past season, we are able to identify the strengths and weaknesses of Williams.
Strengths
Outside Shooting
This past season, Derrick Williams was one of the best outside shooters at his position. He is also top six nationally in the two advanced shooting metrics, posting an eFG% of 65.0% (6th nationally) and a TS% of 69.0% (4th nationally). What is interesting is that Williams went from having a poor three point shooting percentage his freshman year (25%) to having a very good three point shooting percentage his sophomore year (56.8%). So what happened? Williams was allowed to shoot more threes. His freshman year, Williams attempting just 16 threes the entire season, making only four of them. In my opinion, this is a very small sample size, so small that you can’t really put any value in the percentage. His sophomore year, Williams attempted 74 threes, making 42 of them.
Now could this be a fluke? Sure, but looking at the tape, you see the same smooth repeatable shooting form in both his freshman year and his sophomore year, telling me that Derrick Williams’ shooting success his sophomore year was the real deal:
Williams is a set shooter, and his form is very easy, very smooth, and it is the type of shooting form that can allow Williams to take it a few steps back and transition to shooting behind the NBA three point line (probably not at the same rate as college though).
One-on-One Scoring
Just because Williams can play that stretch-4 role for Minnesota next year doesn’t mean that his offense depends on others getting him the basketball in a position to shoot the ball. Williams can also create his own offense and excels when working both out of isolation and when working on the block.
According to Synergy Sports Technology, Derrick Williams is in the 96th percentile in terms of points per possessions in isolation situations, scoring about 1.130 per possession. Part of the reason Williams is so successful when he isolates his man is because he is quicker than most power forwards, but his defender can’t play off of him because of his shooting ability:
The threat of Williams taking and making an outside jumper forces defenders to close the gap and not give Williams any space. Because of this, Williams is able to use his speed to his advantage and take the basketball to the rim. Williams is also an above average ball handler, and this lets him get to the rim with ease. A very good example of the struggle 4s will have when defending him are two plays from the Pac-10 championship game against Washington:
Early in the second half, Williams’ defender is playing off of him as he isolates himself up top dribbling the basketball. Williams uses this space to get off a jumper that he knocks down. Later in the second half, Williams’ man is now playing farther up on him, worried about the jumper, allowing Williams to get on his defender’s hip and get in a position to get the ball up on the rim, hitting the shot.
Williams also has success with his back to the basket. Once again, according to Synergy Sports Technology, Williams is in the 92nd percentile in terms of PPP in post-up situations, scoring 1.065 points per possession on 50% shooting. One of the biggest reasons while Williams is so successful when posting up is the work he puts in without the ball, as he has a tendency to establish very good position:
In addition to establishing great position, Williams also does a great job of going quickly. This is important for two reasons, first it allows Williams to get a shot off before a double team comes (something he isn’t very good at handling, more on this later). Also, it allows Williams to use his quickness to his advantage and prevent defenders from using his lack of size against him and pushing him off of his spots with the ball.
Weaknesses
Handling Double Teams
Turnovers plagued Williams’ sophomore season as he turned the ball over on 16% of his half court possessions. Where Williams turns the basketball over the most is in isolation and post up situations (16.9% and 16.1% respectfully, making Williams’ efficiency in these situations even more impressive), specifically when the defense commits to him, sending a double team his way.
In isolation situations, when defenses commit to him, he turns the ball over 20% of the time and when the defense commits as he posts up, he turns it over 19.2% of the time:
For whatever reason, when a double team comes, Williams goes from making quick and effective decisions and turns into a very hesitant player. There are a couple reasons why this could happen. Either he doesn’t trust himself and his decision making or he doesn’t trust his teammates. If it’s the former, this will be a problem in the pros, doubles and weakside defense will only get quicker and smarter, making it even harder for him. If it’s the latter, then this becomes less of a worry for Minnesota because then he is probably recognizing the pass to make but just doesn’t do it because he didn’t trust his teammates in Arizona.
Defensive Rebounding
Where Williams lack of size really hurts him is on the defensive glass. In addition to getting caught watching the basketball and not holding his box out once in a while, Williams tends to get bullied around when the ball is in the air.
The biggest example of that is when Williams gives up his inside position. Too many times, Williams gives up his position and lets his man get inside of him to the point it looks like he is the one trying to grab the offensive rebound. Add this lack of size to the fact that he doesn’t really hold his box-outs and that means he isn’t going to be grabbing as many rebounds as he should. This is going to be even tougher as Williams takes the step from playing in college to playing in the pros.
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Derrick Williams is a very interesting player who can be used in a number of creative ways on the basketball. Despite that, it is hard to say whether or not he will have success in Minnesota just yet. In my opinion, there are just way too many unknowns right now. I think Williams is a four in the pros, but will Minnesota’s new coaching staff (Even though Rambis is still technically the head coach, they can’t keep him can they?). Also, playing time. There are a lot of 4s/wings on their roster. Off the top of my head I can come up with Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, and Wes Johnson. You also have Nikola Pekovic, though he is more of a center. Oh and there is Anthony Randolph, Lazar Hayward, and Martell Webster there too.
Before we can determine how much Williams will play and where he will play, we need to wait on Minnesota’s front office to make a few decisions personnel and coaching decisions. All that being said, Williams is a very good player who looks like, at least in my opinion, he can have a successful NBA career.
