For the past two offseasons, we have been looking at players coming to the NBA after playing at least as season overseas. With the lockout, we are going to have plenty of time on our hands. With that being said, I plan on doing scouting reports for each of the 30 first round picks from this past draft.
Past Editions: Kyrie Irving (#1) | Derrick Williams (#2) | Tristan Thompson (#4) | Jonas Valanciunas (#5) | Jan Vesely (#6)| Bismack Biyombo (#7) | Brandon Knight (#8)
Despite having a similar player in D.J. Augustin, the Charlotte Bobcats took Kemba Walker with the ninth pick when he dropped to them in the draft. What’s interesting is that even though they play in similar ways, Charlotte’s coaching staff is making noise about playing Augustin and Walker together.
Strengths
Scoring Off The Pick And Roll
When Walker is looking for his own shot coming off of a ball screen, he is a very dangerous player. He does a good job of creating space for his shot, but what makes him really special is his ability to get to the rim when coming off of a ball screen. Walker was in the top 15% of all college players (in terms of PPP) when taking it all the way to the rim coming off of a ball screen drawing a foul 33.3% of the time (Basically, every three times Walker attacked the rim off of a screen, he went to the free throw line):
What makes Walker so tough to cover when coming off of a ball screen is that he has a combination of quickness and shooting ability. Walker is a good enough shooter that if you go under the screen, he is going to pull up and knock down the jumper. This means that defenses need to try to go over screens while hedging. Walker is simply too quick and is able to take advantage by driving by the hedge man and getting into the lane (while not shying away from contact). Finally, he is good enough with the ball that he won’t turn it over often (only turned it over 3% of the time when attacking the rim).
Scoring Using Screens Off Of The Ball
If the Bobcats’ coaching staff is telling the truth and Walker and Augustin will in fact be splitting time, they each are going to have to spend some time working off of the ball offensively. With Connecticut, Walker was very comfortable and effective doing this. When working off of screens, Walker posted a PPP of 1 (top 35%), while shooting 41.8%.
When coming off of screens away from the basketball, Walker looks like he is a shooting guard. What I mean by that is he knows how to use screens away from the basketball properly. He doesn’t just run off of the screen and look for the basketball, he sets up the screen, faking one way the going the other, changing speeds, and a lot of other little things that help get him open. After coming off of the screen, Walker does a good job of getting in a position where he can catch and quickly make a move.
Weaknesses
Pass/Shot Decision Making Off Of Ball Screens
Unlike some high-volume scorers in pick and roll situations, Kemba Walker is actually a pretty good passer out of the pick and roll (teammates shoot 45.4% on shots that come from Walker’s passes out of the pick and roll). The problem with Walker is that he has a tendency not to pass it enough. Walker shoots the basketball 63.8% of the time he comes off of a ball screen, and while most of the shots are good ones (see the clips above), the real problem is when he comes off of the screen with his mind made up about shooting the ball. This tends to create some bad shots from Walker.
The problem with Walker coming off of screens with his mind made up is that he is going to be shooting whether or not he is open. Walker is a good shooter, but when taking jumpers off of ball screens, his shooting percentage is an ok 35.2% (you would expect it to be much higher). The reason why it is so low is because a good chunk of his misses are bad shots that are contested by bigs hedging over. Instead of settling for a jumper there, Walker should look to try and find an open man.
Off Ball Defense
While Walker at the SG position makes sense offensively, it doesn’t really make sense defensively. Not only is his size (which teams would definitely attack) a problem, but but when defending away from the ball, Walker struggles. Walker is in the bottom half of PPP allowed in both Spot-Up and Off Screen situations:
When in help position, Walker has a tendency to ball-watch, losing sight of his man. This hurts him when he tries to help and recover, because he is helping and getting back to where he thinks his man is, but because he lost sight of him, he doesn’t notice that his man isn’t in the same spot. So basically Walker is helping and recovering to a spot on the court where he thinks his man is, but he actually isn’t there.
When defending shooters off of screens, Walker has doesn’t stay attached to his man’s hips. Giving him way too much room when making the catching coming off of the screen. This is important, because in the NBA at the SG position, you are going to be covering guys like Ray Allen, J.J. Redick, and Kyle Korver. Guys who need only a sliver of space to get a shot off (and even less when their defenders are Walker’s size), so if you can’t stay attached, you can’t defend these guys.
Ball watching hurts Walker here too. There are times where he gets caught watching the ball and misses his man taking off to use a screen away from the ball. To try and catch up, Walker tries to go under screens, but instead of helping him, that hurts him even more (especially with a very good shooter).
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So was Walker the right pick for the Bobcats? It is hard to say if they drafted him to be the guy at the point guard spot, then yes. If they want him to share the court (both offensively and defensively) with Augustin, them I’m not sure, because I don’t know how effectively they can play together.
