With EuroBasket’s semifinals taking place this afternoon, I thought it would make sense to preview the games by looking at one key question from each game.

Can Bo McCalebb Have A Big Game?

If Macedonia have any chance of continuing their dream run and turning it into an Olympic bid (which is guaranteed to both finalists) Bo McCalebb is going to have to have a big game.  In recent games, McCalebb, who is 7th among all EuroBasket players in points per 28 minutes averaging 17.8, plays the team game for most of it and then when it comes to crunch time, he steps up, attacks the rim, and tries to be the guy to get Macedonia the win.  That has worked so far, but it won’t work when playing against Spain.  Spain has the 4th best defense in terms of points allowed per 70 possessions, and they have an ability to extend and put pressure on an offense, taking them out of what they are trying to run.

The one whole in Spain’s defense?  Providing help when there is dribble penetration out of isolation situations.  Out of the 65 isolation possessions that Spain has seen during the tournament (isolation isn’t something seen a lot during this tournament), they have given up 58 points on 43.1% (25-58) shooting.  Their PPP of 0.892 puts them 20th among the 24 EuroBasket teams.  Spain’s biggest problem when handling dribble penetration is that their bigs (the Gasols and Serge Ibaka) really struggle when they have to leave their men and provide help:

With the Gasols, it seems that both Pau and Marc regonize when they need to help, but they simply don’t have the speed, athleticism, or sometimes even the desire to leave their men and provide help on time, usually leading to finishes over them when they are arriving a little too late.  With Serge Ibaka, who is an athletic monster, it is something completely different.  Often times, Ibaka gets caught focusing on his man a little too much and by the time he realizes that he needs to help, even he can’t get there.

This sets up perfectly for Bo McCalebb to have a big game isolating his man and attacking the rim with dribble penetration, and I fully expect that to happen.  McCalebb isn’t a gunner who tries to take over all the time, but he knows when he has to, and I feel like he has to right from the opening tip.  Is it going to be enough to get the win?  Probably not, especially if Spain plays a zone to try and negate McCalebb, but if Spain allows Macedonia to stay in it late, who knows what can happen?

Can France Score Enough To Beat Russia?

The second semifinal match-up will probably end up being the more exciting of the two, and I think it all comes down to one question, can France score enough to win?  Combine an average French defense, which ranked 11th in points allowed per 70 possessions so far this defense and an above average Russian offense based on team play and movement, and France is going to have to put a pretty big number on the board if they want to win.  The problem?  Russia has had the best defense in EuroBasket so far, allowing 63.7 points per 70 possessions according to In The Game.

Looking at this match-up specifically, we should focus on pick and roll play.  France loves to run the pick and roll, especially when it means they are freeing up the ball handler, most of the time being Tony Parker, to get into the lane and creating scoring opportunities for himself.  22.6% of France’s total possessions have been dedicated to the ball handler on pick and roll possessions, and they have been very good in this area, scoring 124 points on 47.2% shooting (52-110).  Meanwhile, Russia’s pick and roll defense, much like the rest of their defense, has been very good as well.  In 67 possessions, the ball handler has scored just 44 points (0.656 PPP) on 28.2% shooting (13-46) while forcing 15 turnovers.  When defending the pick and roll, Russia likes to hedge with their bigs and have them recover once the defender covering the ball handler gets back:

What I like about Russia’s strategy is that they are reacting on the fly.  If the man defending the ball handler can get back, the big simply hedges and returns to his man.  If the ball handler tries to attack, the big stays on the ball handler, and uses his size to protect the rim.  You very rarely see Russia’s bigs hedging and returning to their man too early, giving up a driving lane.

However, there is one thing this type of pick and roll defense does give up, and that is the three point shot:

Either when the big hedges, or when the two defenders involved in the pick and roll are returning to their original man, there is a little bit of space created for the ball handler to rise up and hit a three.  In fact, out of the 13 makes that opponents had on Russia out of the pick and roll, 7 of them were three point baskets.  Against France, this really shouldn’t be a problem.  Tony Parker, who got 78.6% of the PNR – BH possessions, is shooting just 23.8% from the three point line over the course of the tournament.  He might burn Russia with a three or two, but I think they would live with that if it meant Parker wasn’t creating in the lane.

During my original predictions, I had Spain and France making it all the way to the finals.  Despite having the chance to look really smart if it happens, I’m changing my pick on the fly and am picking Russia to beat France.  My main reasoning for doing so is that the way Russia defends ball screens, they are set up perfectly to defend France.  Since France runs the pick and roll so much, I just don’t see them scoring enough out of it to beat Russia.  If France wants to win, they are going to have to get out in transition and push the pace, I just think Russia will be able to slow the transition game down and France won’t be able to score enough to beat Russia.